Rishi Sunak will be hoping that sorting out the Northern Ireland Protocol will provide him with a boost to his standing in advance of the 25th anniversary of the Belfast - or Good Friday - Agreement that ended the Troubles in 1998.
Since becoming Prime Minister last October, he has had an unenviable time. The Conservative Party received no boost in the polls when he took over from Liz Truss and there is a widespread belief that Boris Johnson is hoping to oust him and make a return to Downing Street.
Whatever the truth, Mr Johnson has become a vocal opponent of the protocol he and his colleagues were responsible for negotiating with the EU in the first place. In doing so, the former prime minister has added fuel to the fire lit by the DUP and fanned by the ultra-Brexiteers of the Tory European Research Group.
In seeking to placate the DUP - never an easy task - Mr Sunak has been as creative as he could be in seeking to lure the party back into government at the Northern Ireland Assembly. The devolved body has been at a standstill for more than a year because of the party’s opposition to the protocol. Although a new assembly term was due to begin after an election last May, it has remained suspended.
Getting the DUP to return will not be helped by the fact that last year’s election saw Sinn Fein take over as the largest party, meaning that it would be able to nominate the First Minister if devolution resumed. Mr Sunak has therefore provided the DUP with a new incentive. Under the so-called Stormont Break, Northern Ireland would have the power to veto any new EU trade rules that were in the offing. Crucially, the veto could only be applied if the devolved assembly was functioning and decided to deploy it.
From a Welsh perspective, such a development exposes the inferior nature of Wales’ devolution settlement. Scotland is also at a disadvantage.
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr MP Jonathan Edwards asked Mr Sunak a pointed question in the Commons chamber after the PM announced details of the new agreement - known as the Windsor Framework - with the EU. He asked: “If I understand the so-called Stormont Break correctly, is it not the case that the Northern Ireland Assembly will have more power over how EU single market rules apply in their territory than the Welsh and Scottish parliaments would have over how UK internal market rules apply in Wales and Scotland?”
Mr Sunak responded: “I am glad that [he] has recognised how powerful the Stormont Brake is. It is absolutely right given the unique circumstances in Northern Ireland that it does have that sovereignty. It was missing.
“There was a democratic deficit, given the unique circumstances of Northern Ireland, and I am glad that the Windsor Framework and the Stormont Brake eliminate that democratic deficit and restore the appropriate and right sovereignty to the people of Northern Ireland.”
The contrast between Northern Ireland on the one hand and Wales and Scotland on the other recalled heated debates that took place when the UK Government under Mr Johnson introduced the Single Market Act, which determines how the trading of goods functions within the UK post-Brexit.
The Welsh and Scottish governments both argued for arrangements under which all four administrations in the UK would seek to achieve a consensus over what goods could be imported as a result of trade deals entered into with other countries. Such debate occurred at a time when much opposition was expressed to the idea of the UK being forced to accept chlorinated chicken, for example, as part of a free trade deal with the US.
It rapidly became clear that the UK Government was not prepared to concede ground, but insisted that its view should prevail regardless of what the devolved nations wanted. In practical terms this meant that the UK Government was free to negotiate trade deals under which Wales and Scotland would be obliged to accept goods even when they were profoundly opposed to doing so.
No veto comparable to that awarded to Northern Ireland over future trade rules emanating from the EU was made available to Wales and Scotland.
While not directly answering the question put to him by Mr Edwards, Mr Sunak effectively confirmed that Northern Ireland was being given an advantage because of what he described as “unique circumstances”. Such circumstances, of course, relate to the potential loss of life if Northern Ireland’s peace were to be derailed.
No one wants to see a return to violence in the province, but respect for a nation’s democratic choices should surely not be determined by a propensity to take up arms. As things stand, it seems that the limits of devolution within the UK are being determined on an ad hoc basis.
That may work pragmatically in the short term, but a more lasting settlement should be worked towards that can withstand time and scrutiny.
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