Rishi Sunak’s premiership has been thrown into crisis after right-wing rebels delivered a scathing rejection of the flagship Rwanda bill – saying it does “not go far enough”.
In a huge blow to the PM, the so-called “star chamber” of lawyers convened by Tories on the European Research Group (ERG) said the bill won’t get deportation flights started.
They hardline group said Mr Sunak should now “pull the bill” – arguing that it offers only a “provides a partial and incomplete solution” to the problem of asylum seekers using the courts to block flights.
Mr Sunak’s authority is under threat as tribes from both the right and moderate wings hold meetings on Monday to decide if they will back the legislation in a crunch vote on Tuesday.
The ERG’s group of lawyers, led by veteran Tory Eurosceptic Sir Bill Cash, said “very significant amendments” would be needed to make it work. “We do not believe that it goes far enough to deliver the policy as intended,” they said.
Mark Francois, chairman of the ERG, said there was a “consensus” among right-wingers that Mr Sunak should “pull the bill” now. The senior rebel said No 10 should “come up with a revised version that works better than this one which has so many holes in it”.
David Jones, the ERG deputy chair, said he agreed that the current Rwanda bill was “not easily amendable” at the committee stage – even if goes through the first hurdle on Tuesday.
Mark Francois, leader of the ERG group— (Getty)
Mr Jones said the government “needs to review it” should “maybe consider a completely new piece of legislation.” He said there were “so many gaps in the [current] legislation”.
But Mr Francois suggested MPs in the ERG – and other right-wing groups – would not necessarily agree on how to vote on Tuesday. “I’m not sure if final decision will be taken even today,” he said on the decision faced by MPs.
Pushed on whether the “logical conclusion” of the strong opposition to the bill was that MPs would vote against it, Mr Francois said: “We have dropped the government a broad hint – we’ll see how the government replies.”
The Sunak government produced a summary of its own legal advice in support of the scheme on Monday afternoon in a rare move intended to win over Tory critics on both wings of the party.
No 10 denied it was a desperate move – and urged backbenchers to consider the advice. Mr Sunak’s official spokesman said: “I’m sure it’s something MPs will wish to consider.”
Sunak is under huge pressure to change the bill from two warring Tory camps— (PA)
While No 10 is still confident of surviving the first hurdle on Tuesday, Mr Sunak could still lose the crucial Commons vote “by accident”, according to Conservative MPs.
Although many rebels are planning to back it on Tuesday and “bide their time” until January, the PM has been warned that he could still face a humiliating defeat tomorrow if enough people abstain.
Mr Sunak only needs a rebellion of 28 Conservatives to see his majority destroyed as Labour and other parties will vote against it. But if 56 Tory MPs abstain, that would also see the government majority vanish.
One senior Tory MP on the right told The Independent: “It could happen by accident [because of abstentions]. I think it would be better to try to fix the bill and wait – but people will make up their own minds.”
Robert Jenrick – the former Sunak who quit as his immigration minister – will speak at a meeting of Tory right-wingers at 6pm on Monday, the ERG chief Mark Francois has said.
MPs from other right-wing camps, including the New Conservatives, the Common Sense Group, and the Conservative Growth Group of Liz Truss loyalists, will discuss how they are thinking of voting.
Right-wing MP Simon Clarke, a key figure in the Conservative Growth Group, said the ERG verdict was “very concerning”. Suggesting that he could vote against the bill at some stage, Mr Clarke said: “There is no point frankly in our relitigating this issue unless it does work.”
Robert Jenrick has suggested he could not support bill in Commons in current form— (PA Media)
Veteran Tory Brexiteer Sir Michael Fabricant, an ERG member, said he would be voting for the Rwanda bill on Tuesday, a sign it is likely to go through at the first hurdle. “Amendments can then be made later in the usual way.”
The more moderate wing of One Nation Conservatives will hold a separate evening meeting around 6pm in parliament before releasing a statement on their judgment.
Mr Jenrick the BBC on Sunday he will not support the “weak bill that will not work”. But he said “we can fix this” – raising the possibility he could abstain along with other opponents before pushing to amend the legislation.
With some right-wingers keen to pounce on the Rwanda issue to force a vote on Mr Sunak’s leadership, allies are advising the PM to be ready to call a snap election.
Senior Tory MP Sir Charles Walker, former chair of the 1922 committee, said Mr Sunak should call an immediate general election if the Tories “self-destruct” and the bill is voted down.
“If the thought of a third leadership contest in this Parliament leaves me cold, it will most likely cause the country frostbite,” Sir Charles wrote in the i.
Michael Gove insisted that Mr Sunak is “not contemplating” holding an early general election if the Rwanda Bill is voted down. The cabinet minister said on Sunday: “No, we’re not contemplating that.”
Home Office modelling, seen by The Times, that suggests 99.5 per cent of individual legal challenges submitted by asylum seekers will fail to block their deportation.
But critics of the plan dismissed the new Home Office’s assessment, based on a model from March, as “outdated”. A senior Tory source said: “Even this old, optimistic model says it could take more than two months to remove a migrant. It would be laughable if it wasn’t so serious,” said the sceptic.
Suella Braverman has said the bill will not block legal claims against deportation— (Getty Images)
Mr Shapps rejected the suggestion that the PM’s leadership is in chaos. He said the bill would pass through the Commons “for sure” – but admitted the legislation could get “tripped up” in the Lords.
Senior Tory David Davis told The Independent that the rebels “would be bonkers to vote against it”, adding: “The bill goes about as far as it can.”
A group of unnamed Tory MPs have told the Mail on Sunday that they would like to get rid of Mr Sunak – with some even keen to bring back Boris Johnson as leader.
Dubbed the “pasta plotters”, a small group of anti-Sunak MPs and strategists were said to have met at an Italian restaurant to plan “an Advent calendar of s***” for the PM over the Christmas period.
Damian Green – chair of the moderate One Nation wing of the party – offered a warning to any right-wing rebels seeking to exploit the Rwanda issue as a way to get rid of Mr Sunak.
“Anyone who thinks that what the Conservative Party or the country needs is a change of prime minister is either mad or malicious or both,” he told BBC host Laura Kuenssberg.
