May NY world sugar #11 (SBK23) on Thursday closed up +0.66 (+2.88%), and May London white sugar #5 (SWK23) closed up +9.30 (+1.40%).
Sugar prices Thursday extended Wednesday's sharp rally, with NY sugar posting a 6-1/2 year nearest-futures high and London sugar posting an 11-year high. Fund buying pushed sugar futures higher Thursday on signs of even tighter global supplies after India's Food Secretary said India might not allow additional sugar exports this year due to lower-than-expected sugar production. Sugar prices were already in rally mode from Wednesday when the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) reported India's Oct-Mar sugar production fell -3.3% y/y to 29.96 MMT. India is the world's second-largest sugar producer.
Another bullish factor for sugar was last Wednesday's action by the Brazilian government to change how it taxes biofuels. The government established a fixed rate for state taxes on gasoline and anhydrous ethanol, which will benefit ethanol producers and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to produce more ethanol at the expense of sugar production.
Tropical Research Services last Tuesday cut its 2022/23 global sugar estimate to 1.6 MMT from a previous estimate of 4.5 MMT. Also, S&P Global Commodity Insights Monday cut its 2022/23 global sugar surplus estimate to 600,000 MT from a November estimate of 5 MMT due to weaker-than-expected global sugar production.
Sugar also has support from concerns that changing weather patterns could undercut global sugar production. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center last month said the La Nina weather pattern, which has affected weather patterns over the last three years, has ended and that an El Nino weather pattern has a 61% chance of developing in the second half of this year. If that El Nino pattern occurs, it could bring heavy rains to Brazil and drought to India, negatively impacting sugar crop production.
Tighter global sugar supplies are bullish for prices. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) on Feb 24 raised its 2021/22 global sugar deficit estimate to -2.25 MMT from a November estimate of -1.67 MMT and cut its 2022/23 global sugar surplus estimate to 4.15 MMT from 6.19 MMT. However, the ISO still projects that global 2022/23 sugar production will climb +4.8% y/y to a record high of 180.4 MMT.
Sugar prices have underlying support from concern about smaller sugar production in India. The ISMA on Jan 31 cut its 2022/23 India sugar production estimate to 34 MMT from an Oct estimate of 36.5 MMT and cut its India 2022/23 sugar export estimate to 6.1 MMT from an Oct forecast of 9 MMT. Also, the ISMA said that it sees India's sugar mills diverting 4.5-5.0 MMT of sugar to ethanol production in 2022/23.
Reduced sugar production in Europe is a supportive factor for sugar prices. The European Association of Sugar Manufacturers on Dec 8 forecasted that EU 2022/23 sugar output would fall -7% y/y to 15.5 MMT.
An increase in Brazil's sugar output is bearish for prices after Unica reported last Friday that Brazil's 2022/23 sugar production from Oct through mid-March rose +4.7% y/y to 33.583 MMT.
A negative factor for sugar was the report from Datagro on Mar 15 that projected that 2023/24 sugar production in Brazil's Center South would climb by +13.1% y/y to 38.3 MMT. Brazil is the world's largest sugar producer.
A bearish factor is the prospect of additional sugar exports from India. Indian Food Minister Singh said Mar 13 that India could allow another 1 MMT of sugar exports if India's 2022/23 sugar output reaches the government target of 33.6 MMT. India has already allowed 6 MMT of sugar exports.
On the negative side for sugar was the Feb 1 projection from the Thai Sugar Mills Corp that Thailand's 2022/23 sugar production would climb +14% y/y to 11.55 MMT. Likewise, Thailand's 2022/23 sugar exports are projected to increase +17% y/y to 9.05 MMT. Green Pool Commodity Specialists recently said that Thailand's 2023 sugar production reached 6.59 MMT as of Feb 8, up nearly +10% from last season, with sugar content in the cane crop at a record high. Thailand is the world's second-largest sugar exporter.
