May NY world sugar #11 (SBK24) this morning is up +0.09 (+0.45%), and Aug London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ24) is up +2.60 (+0.45%).
Sugar prices today are mildly higher as they consolidate recent losses. Short covering has pushed sugar prices higher since last Thursday when Conab cut its Brazil 2023/24 sugar production estimate by -2.6% to 45.7 MMT from a November estimate of 46.9 MMT. Conab's Brazil sugar production estimate was reduced since Conab raised its Brazil 2023/24 ethanol production estimate to 29.7 bln liters from a November estimate of 28 billion liters.
Last Wednesday, NY sugar fell to a 15-month low, and London sugar dropped to a 14-month low on improved supply prospects. Last Friday, Unica reported that Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of March was 183,000 MT, up +9% from last year. Also, Brazilian sugar output so far in the 2023-24 marketing year through March is up +25.7% y/y to 42.425 MMT. Brazil's sugar mills have ramped up their cane crushing for more sugar and less ethanol. Mills have crushed 48.87% of total cane for sugar production this year, up from 45.86% last year.
On the positive side, the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association reported last Tuesday that India's 2023/24 sugar production from Oct-Apr 15 fell -0.5% y/y to 31.09 MMT as more sugar mills closed for the year and ended their crush of sugarcane. As of Apr 15, 84 Indian sugar mills were still open to produce sugar, compared with 132 mills open at the same time last year.
Reduced sugar production in India is a bullish factor for prices. The 2023 (Jun-Sep) monsoon rain was 6% below average, the poorest monsoon rainfall in 5 years. In October, India extended restrictions on sugar exports from Oct 31 until further notice in an attempt to maintain adequate domestic supplies. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022/23 season to Sep 30 after allowing exports of a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season. India is the second-largest sugar producer in the world.
Also weighing on sugar prices is the outlook for an above-average monsoon in India this year, which could boost India's sugar output. The India Meteorological Department expects the 2024 (Jun-Sep) monsoon period to be 106% of a long-term average of 87 centimeters.
Another bearish factor for sugar was Monday's report from Thailand's government that showed Thailand's 2023/24 sugar production from Dec-Apr 17 was 8.77 MMT, above a Feb estimate from the Thai Sugar Millers Corp for sugar production of 7.5 MMT.
A supportive factor for sugar is the Apr 9 report from Bloomberg, which said that India may allow sugar mills to use more sugar to make ethanol. The Indian government is considering allowing factories to use an additional 800,000 MT of sugar for ethanol production this year. This move suggests that the government will not soon ease sugar export curbs.
On the bearish side for sugar, the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association on Mar 13 raised its forecast for India's sugarcane production in the 2023-24 marketing year (that began on Oct 1) by +2.9% to 34 MMT from January's forecast of 33.05 MMT. Higher sugarcane production likely means higher refined sugar production, depending on how much of that sugarcane is converted into ethanol.
Reduced Thai sugar production is bullish for sugar prices. Rainfall in Thailand has been below the same period last year, and the current El Nino weather system could continue to depress rainfall in Thailand. Sugar millers in Thailand are reporting the lowest yield from crushed cane this year in at least 13 years. Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest sugar exporter.
As of April 2024, NOAA predicts the El Nino weather event will end, and the tropical Pacific will transition to neutral conditions, which should benefit weather patterns in South America and Asia and support global sugar crops.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report released on Nov 23, projected that global 2023/24 sugar production would climb +4.7% y/y to a record 183.461 MMT and that global 2023/24 human sugar consumption would increase +1.2% y/y to a record 178.431 MMT. The USDA also forecasted that 2023/24 global sugar ending stocks would fall -13.3% y/y to a 13-year low of 33.681 MMT. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) on Feb 28 raised its 2023/24 global sugar deficit estimate to -689,000 MT from a November estimate of -335,000 MT.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
