Week 13 brought the 2022 NFL season’s second tie when Graham Gano’s game-winning field goal attempt from 58 yards out bounced out the back of the end zone. While none of us here at FTW were able to predict a stalemate between the Washington Commanders and New York Giants, that was only a blip on the radar in a solid week of straight up picks.
While last week’s picks were filled with plenty of home underdogs who eventually came through (or, in the Giants’ case, didn’t lose), this week’s choices are much more chalk-y. A somewhat underwhelming slate has our experts leaning heavily toward betting favorites. That’s bad news for the New York teams who play in New Jersey, but great news for the Empire State’s actual home team.
Here’s who we’ve got for Week 14, with explanations on some of primetime’s toughest picks below.
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Raiders at Rams | Raiders | Raiders | Raiders |
| Browns at Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals |
| Jets at Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Eagles at Giants | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Texans at Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| Vikings at Lions | Lions | Lions | Vikings |
| Jaguars at Titans | Titans | Titans | Titans |
| Ravens at Steelers | Steelers* | Ravens | Ravens |
| Dolphins at Chargers | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Panthers at Seahawks | Seahawks | Panthers | Seahawks |
| Buccaneers at 49ers | 49ers | 49ers | 49ers |
| Chiefs at Broncos | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Patriots at Cardinals | Patriots | Cardinals | Cardinals |
| Last week: | 12-2-1 | 10-4-1 | 11-3-1 |
| Year to date: | 122-71-2 | 120-73-2 | 108-85-2 |
And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.
Easiest game to pick: Tennessee Titans (-3.5) over the Jacksonville Jaguars
Last week’s pick was the Ravens over the Broncos, which was NOT. EASY. AT. ALL. The fact this section is so distractingly bad this fall is a solid indicator of how turbulent the 2022 NFL season has been. Great quarterbacks look awful, shaky quarterbacks have risen up in their stead and, somehow, both New York teams are currently in the playoff picture.
So, as always, take this pick with a grain of salt.
The Titans aren’t a massive betting favorite for this one — oddsmakers set them up as only slightly better than the Jags on a neutral field. But this one’s being played in Nashville, home of endless bachelorette parties, pedal pubs and traffic on 440. It’s also where Tennessee has won eight straight against Jacksonville and 10 of its last 11.
Mike Vrabel needs a win to snap a two-game losing streak and avoid spiraling out before what’s almost certainly going to be a playoff berth. Ryan Tannehill needs a get-right game. Those two will team up to find a way to overload the league’s 30th-ranked passing defense. Once a few passes loosens up the box for Derrick Henry, the Titans will be able to play their style of bully-ball all the way to a win (especially against a potentially not-100-percent Trevor Lawrence).
Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 7-6 (.539)
Hardest favorite to back: Las Vegas Raiders (-6) over the Los Angeles Rams
I originally rolled with the Rams on Thursday Night Football before reconsidering. That doesn’t mean I’m especially bullish on Las Vegas’ chances.
The Raiders, on the plus side, will likely have a decent amount of fans in the building for a game in their former home state against a bad team whose fans don’t have much reason to show up. They’re also rolling, with three straight wins that have cooled the flames under head coach Josh McDaniels’ seat considerably.
But they’re still the Raiders. Vegas has found ways to lose this fall, blowing three different 17-0 leads in the process. A showdown with the league’s 32nd-ranked passing defense is just the thing to boost LA’s terrible aerial offense. And if Jalen Ramsey can shut down Davante Adams, McDaniels will have to hope Josh Jacobs and a maybe-healthy Darren Waller can carry the offense.
Unfortunately for the Rams, Adams has 17 catches on 19 targets for 200 yards and a touchdown in his two games against Ramsey since the latter’s arrival in Los Angeles. And that once-fearsome defense has given up at least 437 yards in each of its last two games. The Rams don’t have the ammunition to survive a shootout, so Vegas gets the nod.
Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 7-5 (.583)
Upset pick of the week: New England Patriots (-1) over the Arizona Cardinals
After rolling with a handful of home underdogs last week, I don’t have an actual betting ‘dog on the Week 14 docket. That’s concerning, but I do have some picks that feel like upsets — namely the Patriots, Lions, Steelers and Brock Purdy-led 49ers.
New England, as a one-point favorite, is as close as we’ll get, so let’s roll with angry Mac Jones in the desert.
— sportsvids99 (@sportsvids991) December 2, 2022
This pick is more about the Cardinals’ failures than the Patriots’ comeback. Arizona has been a disaster in what’s likely Kliff Kingsbury’s final season as head coach. The best team he’s beaten in 2022 is either the aforementioned Raiders (untrustable) or New Orleans Saints (bad at football). Now Kyler Murray, in the thick of a disappointing season, has to face the league’s third-best passing defense at a time of year where his team typically crumbles. The Cardinals are 6-10 in December or later over the last three seasons.
New England isn’t great — in fact, New England can’t even be relied upon to beat bad teams (hello, 19-point home loss to the Bears) — but Bill Belichick losing three straight games with a team in the playoff hunt is effectively unheard of (we’re not counting 2020).
Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 2-11 (.154)
