The Jacksonville Jaguars weren’t supposed to be a playoff team. They were 2-6 after eight weeks and appeared destined to play out yet another rebuilding year. The New York Giants were in a similar boat. They had a soft schedule, but the combination of coaching turnover, a depleted cast of receivers and the presence of Daniel Jones behind center pointed to a sixth-straight losing season.
Yet here both teams stand: 1-0 in the playoffs, Super Bowl 57 hopes intact.
They’ll bring those Cinderella stories to another set of underdog circumstances in the divisional round. The Jaguars get the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium, a place where they haven’t won since 2007. The Giants have a third go-round against the Philadelphia Eagles, who’ve already beaten them twice this season (though the second time was against a smattering of backups for a New York team whose playoff position was set in stone).
Both teams are full touchdown underdogs. Can either pull off another round of magic?
Turns out, we’re betting no.
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Jaguars at Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Giants at Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Bengals at Bills | Bills | Bills | Bengals |
| Cowboys at 49ers | 49ers | Cowboys | 49ers |
| Last week: | 4-2 | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Year to date: | 168-92-2 | 168-92-2 | 153-107-2 |
And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.
Easiest game to pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5) over the New York Giants
Conventional NFL wisdom suggests it’s difficult to beat a team three times in the same season. But the San Francisco 49ers wiped out an overmatched Seattle Seahawks team for the third time in a row last week and a similar result is likely in Philadelphia.
The Eagles didn’t exactly acquit themselves well in beating the Giants’ backups in Week 18, but that win gave Jalen Hurts and Lane Johnson a much-needed extra week of rest before starting the postseason. But the last time these teams met at full strength, in northern New Jersey, Philly ran out to a 21-0 lead en route to a dominant 48-22 win.
Saturday’s game might not be that lopsided, but that Week 14 performance is more in line with the talent gap between these two teams. The Eagles have the league’s sixth-ranked defense. The Giants clock in at No. 29. The Eagles ranked third in points scored and overall offensive DVOA this season. The Giants were 15th and 10th in those categories.
Can Brian Daboll figure out a way to win? I’m not putting it past him. But he’ll have to deal with another rising coaching star in Nick Sirianni on the opposite sideline. Philadelphia has the edge in nearly every aspect of this game. As long as the Eagles don’t get dragged into a rock fight, they should advance to the NFC title game.
Hardest favorite to back: Buffalo Bills (-5) over the Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals thrive as underdogs. That’s how they ran to Super Bowl 56, where they were perhaps half a second’s worth of better blocking away from a world championship. They were four-point dogs in the divisional round last year against the Titans and seven-point dogs one week later vs. the Chiefs and won each by a field goal.
Cincinnati also took an early lead against the Bills when these teams met, in Cincy, in Week 17. But that game was canceled after Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field. Following a wonderful recovery, he’s been back at Buffalo’s facilities throughout the week but has yet to attend a game since being taken from the field, by ambulance, to a level one trauma center.
Since Sunday could be the Bills’ final home game of the year, it seems like a safe bet he’ll be in attendance. Buffalo was already favored, but that extra motivation makes Josh Allen nearly impossible to be against. The Bengals absolutely have the talent to play spoiler but the Bills have, thematically, so much to play for that I can’t pick them.
Upset pick of the week: N/A
Yep, it’s all chalk this weekend for me. I briefly considered switching up my Bengals-Bills pick after realizing this, but changing your bet based on circumstance and/or boredom is a dumb way to operate.
The live underdogs I like the most? Cincinnati, for on-field reasons and Jacksonville. As good as the Cowboys can be the 49ers are a brutal matchup for them — Dallas’s blitzes can be counteracted by Brock Purdy’s quick throws and the yards-after-catch machines in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Dak Prescott was wonderful against Tampa but now gets the league’s top defense, loaded with playmakers at every level. The Cowboys’ kicker may be broken. Etc.
So, here we stand with an all-chalk lineup. Robert Zeglinski’s got Dallas on his dance card. Charles Curtis has the Bengals. Both reasonable choices! I’m opting to roll with my gut — and my gut says you won’t win much if you’re moneyline betting on my picks.
