Stop Looking at Earnings: The Real Threat to AI Stocks Is the Collapse of Compute Prices

Today, Wall Street is obsessed with a question: “Where is the money from AI?” Analysts are meticulously calculating return on investment (ROI), studying the revenue from subscriptions, and doubting whether software companies will be able to monetize the gigantic capital expenses that Big Tech is pouring into infrastructure.

In my opinion, though, there is another question to ask. The real threat to the tech sector — and the whole U.S. stock market — is not hiding in a deficit of ideas for AI monetization but in a classic economic shock: a crisis of computing power overproduction. Investors are used to thinking that the GPU shortage will last forever. But the flywheel of the investment cycle is already launched, and the reverse countdown has begun.