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Kiplinger
Kiplinger
Business
Jeffrey R. Kosnett

Stop Chasing Long-Term Bonds: Why the 'Belly' of the Yield Curve Is Your Best Bet

A couple discussing their finances at home.

While anxious eyes watch oil prices and inflation indexes, the best news for savers and income investors is hiding in the bunker often called the belly of the yield curve. So far in 2026 through the start of June, two-year Treasury yields have leapt from 3.46% to 4.01%, and three-year yields from 3.53% to 4.06%.

At the same time, despite chatter about inflation pushing up interest rates at the long end, these show gentler climbs, with 30-year T-bonds crawling from 4.86% to 4.97%. This tells us traders anticipate the surge in inflation to persist through 2029, then recede toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

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