The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is down by -0.11% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down by -0.50%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.24%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are down -0.18%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are up +0.19%.
Stock indexes gave up an early advance today and are trading mixed as bond yields rise. Stocks are supported today by a decline in crude oil prices, which eases inflation concerns. Crude prices are under pressure today on signs that a steady flow of crude oil is coming out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply concerns and inflation risks. Strength in chipmakers today is also a positive factor for the overall market.
However, stocks came under pressure today on higher T-note yields. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3 bp to 5.26%, just below Monday’s 19-year high of 5.27%. Also, weaker-than-expected US economic news weighed on stocks after Aug JOLTS job openings fell to a 5-month low, and Sep consumer confidence tumbled to a 12-year low.
The July S&P composite-20 home price index rose +0.3% m/m and +2.47% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.20% y/y, with the +2.47% y/y gain the largest year-on-year increase in 14 months.
US Aug JOLTS job openings fell -256,000 to a 5-month low of 7.079 million, weaker than expectations of 7.228 million.
The Conference Board US Sep consumer confidence index fell -6.7 to a 12-year low of 81.9, weaker than expectations of 89.0.
Nov WTI crude oil prices (CLX26) are down more than -1% today as signs of larger oil exports from Saudi Arabia are bearish for prices. Tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show Saudi Arabia's crude exports stood at 5.28 million bpd in September, the highest in seven months. Saudi Arabia also said it restored about 3.5 million bpd of the East-West Pipeline's 7 million bpd capacity on Monday after repairs restored the link damaged by drone strikes earlier this month. Crude losses are limited as hopes remain dim for an imminent breakthrough to end the war in Iran.
Markets are discounting a 68% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a 2.5-week high and is up +0.76%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.18%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -0.60%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are down -5 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.0 bp to 5.255%. T-notes are under pressure today on supply pressures after Paramount Skydance announced it was offering $32 billion of debt in eight tranches, prompting bond dealers to short T-notes to hedge against the incoming supply.
Losses in T-notes are limited today amid weaker-than-expected US economic news on Aug JOLTS job openings and Sep consumer confidence. T-notes also have support on today’s -1% decline in WTI crude oil prices, which eases inflation expectations.
European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield is down -4.4 bp to 3.599%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -4.3 bp to 5.379%.
The Eurozone Sep economic confidence indicator unexpectedly fell -0.5 to 97.9, weaker than expectations of an increase to 99.0.
Spain Sep CPI (EU harmonized) rose +5.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +4.9% y/y and the largest increase in 3.5 years. Sep core CPI rose +3.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.0% y/y.
Markets are discounting a 29% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI stocks are moving higher today, supporting gains in the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up more than +1%. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is up more than +5%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up more than +4%. Also, Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA Corp (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), ASML Holding NV (ASML), and Broadcom (AVGO) are up more than +3%. In addition, Microchip Technology (MCHP), Intel (INTC), and Micron Technology (MU), are up more than +2%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Analog Devices (ADI), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +1%.
Cruise stocks are climbing today, led by a +12% jump in Carnival (CCL) to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $2.24 from a previous estimate of $2.22. Also, Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) is up more than +6%, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is up more than +5%.
Fair Isaac (FICO) is down more than -26% to lead credit reporting agencies lower after FHA director Pulte announced a move that makes it easier for lenders to adopt VantageScore, a move that will increase competition that could pressure credit companies’ market share and pricing power. Also, TransUnion (TRU) is down more than -4% and Equifax (EFX) is down more than -3%.
Oracle (ORCL) is up more than +7% after Axios reported that OpenAI’s annual recurring revenue is nearing $70 billion. OpenAI signed a deal with Oracle last year to support the development of five US data centers.
CarMax (KMX) is up more than +7% after reporting Q2 net sales and operating revenue of $7.88 billion, well above the consensus of $7.05 billion.
FuelCell Energy (FCEL) is up more than +7% after Oppenheimer & Co initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of outperform and a price target of $24.
Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) is up more than +5% after AstraZeneca said it would make a $2 billion strategic equity investment in the company to jointly develop drugs.
UniQure NV (QURE) is down more than -41% after saying the benefits of its Huntington’s disease gene therapy drug AMT-130 were not as good after four years as they were after three years in a small trial, a result that could complicate its bid to get the treatment approved by regulators.
Walmart (WMT) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 after Target announced additional price cuts and after US Sep consumer confidence fell to a 12-year low.
Earnings Reports (9/29/2026)
AAR Corp (AIR), CarMax Inc (KMX), Carnival Corp Ltd (CCL), Concentrix Corp (CNXC), Critical Metals Corp (CRML), Uranium Energy Corp (UEC).
