With a changing of the guard at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, many are wondering how Trump will affect the stock market.
Time will tell, but seeds are already being planted in Washington, D.C., that will reveal which sectors and stocks will prosper under a Trump administration.
"Knowing that President-elect Trump likes to use the market as a scorecard for his success, one would expect that the administration will take a measured approach in policy rollout," says Mark Malek, CIO at Siebert, a financial services firm in New York, N.Y. "Increasing the deficit is not bad if the returns on that investment are acceptable. Growth, through careful, well thought out strategy, can indeed be really positive."
Other market specialists say Wall Street is anticipating a market renaissance starting in 2025 – hopefully.
To cash in on the positives and get out ahead of negatives, it’s important to act as soon as possible.
Here are the stocks and sectors to buy, and to sell, before Trump’s second Inauguration Day.
"The stock market has been red hot since Donald Trump's election," says Kevin Connor, founder and CEO of Modern SBC, a strategic business brand firm in Philadelphia, PA. "It's like a giant game of Jenga: everyone is adjusting their moves, anticipating what might collapse and what will collapse under the weight of his policies. For anyone who breathes economic trends, it's fascinating to watch."
Connor believes the market has already shown its cards and is betting big on Trump.
"The Dow rose, reflecting strong optimism about his promises to cut taxes, reduce regulations, and pour a mountain of money into infrastructure," he says. "But the problem is that campaign promises don’t always match reality. While there’s a lot of excitement, there’s also that cloud of “what if?” scenarios already in play."
Stocks to Buy
Energy
Following his campaign script, Trump is betting everything on traditional energy sources like oil, gas, and coal. "Big energy companies are thrilled with the idea of reduced regulations and expanded drilling rights," Connor says.
That could lead to big gains for sector companies like Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Riley Exploration Permian (REPX). EPD’s shares have risen 5% in the past five days, while REPX’s shares rose 3.9% in the same time period.FinanceA Trump administration appears favorable for the financial sector. "Trump has suggested he’s not a fan of Dodd-Frank, the legislation that tightened the rules for banks after the financial crisis," Connor notes. "If regulations are eased, big banks could see their profits rise significantly."
That could be a boon to big bank stocks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC). Both companies’ shares have risen 9% over the past 30 days. DefenseWith guarantees of larger defense budgets, defense contractors are looking at a boom time.
"Companies like Lockheed Martin (LMT) ought to see their contracts grow," says Jason Hishmeh, a tech sector investor and CTO at Varyance and Get Startup Funding in New York, N.Y.
Connor agrees with that sentiment, noting LMT should be in line "for a lot of new contracts."
Cyber security companies should prosper as the GOP calls the shots in D.C. "This will be a large step forward in the virtual protection realm," Hishmeh says.
Stocks To Sell On the downside, some industries may face an uphill climb in a Trump regime. These sectors lead that list.
The Automobile Industry
Malek says Trump's proposed 60% tariff on Chinese goods, along with Biden's existing 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles, would significantly impact the automobile industry, particularly electric vehicles (EVs) and their supply chains.
"European manufacturers like BMW, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz could also face renewed tariffs, adding strain to the sector as well as driving up the core goods CPI," he says.Consumer ElectronicsMalek notes that a universal 10% tariff on imports, combined with existing Chinese tariffs, would increase costs for companies like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA), which uses Chinese-manufactured parts.
"The consumer electronics industry, heavily reliant on imported components, would see production costs rise, potentially reducing profit margins," he says. "The reduced margins would be passed along to consumers causing core goods inflation."Technology CompaniesExpect the technology sector to feel the heat on some of Trump's policies, and one in particular.
"If Trump’s immigration regulations tighten or exchange becomes more complicated, companies that rely upon those elements ought to struggle," Hishmeh says. "For example, startups that rely upon H-1B visas or worldwide delivery chains can also additionally want to reconsider their strategies."The Big PictureMuch depends on what President-elect Trump says and does while in office.
"Markets, as we all know, can be temperamental, changing moods quickly," Malek says. "Just like with investing reactively, it can cause pain. If Trump is too reactive to daily market moves as he was during some passages of his first term, he and many others may get whipsawed."
The economy still has several key burdens to bear, but Malek sees the economic clouds largely lifting.
"Markets this time around are more fully valued than they were in the past, and inflation is a healing but still sore wound, and monetary policy is significantly tighter," he says. "The good news is that companies are in healthier shape for the most part, which may help keep equities on their secular positive trajectory, but it certainly will come with higher short-run volatility."Hopefully, Trump's sensitivity to the equity markets should result in a more measured approach to tariff policy.
"The bond market, with its powerful vigilantes, has sent a clear warning message," Malek adds. "Trump only needs to look back to the Reagan era to see that those vigilantes can cause some upset."
"Hopes are high, but unfortunately, hope is not a good investment strategy," he adds.
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Lockheed Martin via its Flickr page
