December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are up +0.04%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are down -0.09% this morning as investors looked ahead to a raft of U.S. economic data that could provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s decision-making on monetary policy.
Nvidia (NVDA) slid more than -2% in pre-market trading after the chip giant’s Q4 revenue guidance failed to meet lofty expectations of some investors.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended mixed. Target (TGT) plunged over -21% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the retailer posted downbeat Q3 results and cut its full-year adjusted EPS guidance. Also, Qualcomm (QCOM) slid more than -6% to lead chip stocks lower after Susquehanna cut its price target on the stock to $210 from $230. In addition, Fabrinet (FN) slumped over -9% after B. Riley Securities downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $178. On the bullish side, Keysight Technologies (KEYS) climbed more than +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company reported stronger-than-expected FQ4 results and provided upbeat FQ1 guidance.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook stated on Wednesday that it would likely be appropriate for the Fed to gradually lower interest rates toward a more neutral stance, citing progress on inflation and the strength of the labor market. She added that the “magnitude and timing” of rate cuts would depend on incoming data and the economic outlook. Also, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she prefers to proceed cautiously with further interest rate cuts as progress in reducing inflation has slowed. In addition, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that more rate cuts are necessary, but policymakers should proceed with caution to avoid moving either too quickly or too slowly.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 59.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 40.9% chance of no rate change at the next central bank meeting in December.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Intuit (INTU), Deere (DE), Copart (CPRT), and Ross Stores (ROST) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the November Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will stand at 6.3, compared to last month’s value of 10.3.
Also, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data. Economists expect this figure to be 220K, compared to last week’s number of 217K.
U.S. Existing Home Sales data will come in today. Economists foresee this figure to stand at 3.94M in October, compared to 3.84M in September.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. will be released today as well. Economists expect the October figure to be -0.3% m/m, compared to the previous number of -0.5% m/m.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.384%, down -0.50%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are down -0.20% this morning as geopolitical concerns and a lackluster revenue forecast from Nvidia weighed on sentiment. Automobile stocks led the declines on Thursday. Technology stocks also lost ground. Risk appetite was also dampened by concerns over an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war after Ukraine reported that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile during an overnight attack. Statistical agency Insee reported on Thursday that sentiment among French manufacturers improved in November. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated on Thursday that higher U.S. import tariffs would have a minimal impact on Eurozone inflation and that the ECB should continue to reduce borrowing costs. Investors are now awaiting Eurozone consumer confidence data for November and remarks from ECB officials Elderson and Lane later in the session. In corporate news, Jd Sports Fashion Plc (JD-.LN) plunged over -12% after the sportswear retailer cautioned that its annual profit would likely be at the lower end of its forecast.
France’s Business Survey was released today.
The French November Business Survey came in at 97, stronger than expectations of 95.
Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.07%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.85%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed marginally higher today. Software and financial stocks outperformed on Thursday. Automobile stocks also advanced after state media Xinhua reported that China intends to extend car trade-in incentives through 2025 to stabilize market expectations. Still, sentiment remained largely subdued after a Reuters poll of over 50 economists suggested that the U.S. could impose tariffs nearing 40% on imports from China early next year. Such a move could potentially cut growth in the world’s second-largest economy by up to 1 percentage point. China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged this week, as anticipated, but investors continue to hope that Beijing will implement additional stimulus measures to bolster economic growth. In other news, four out of six economic advisers interviewed by Reuters recommended that the Chinese government set a 5% economic growth target for 2025, while one suggested a target above 4%, and another proposed a range of 4.5% to 5%. The advisers, who do not have decision-making authority, will submit their recommendations to the closed-door annual Central Economic Work Conference in December. In corporate news, CCOOP Group surged about +10% after announcing plans to acquire a 51% stake in retail company Beijing Xinhezuo Commercial Development for 1.51 billion yuan.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today, with sentiment dampened by the outlook for the AI-chip sector and concerns over the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Real estate stocks led the declines on Thursday. Chip-related stocks also weighed on the index following Nvidia’s lackluster revenue forecast. Ministry of Finance data showed on Thursday that foreign investors bought Japanese stocks for the eighth consecutive week, drawn by a weaker yen and guidance upgrades from major domestic lenders. Foreigners made net purchases of Japanese stocks totaling 127.6 billion yen ($823.5 million) during the week ending November 16th. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Thursday that the central bank considers the potential impact of a weak yen on its price forecasts, although currency market stability is not part of its mandates. In other news, public broadcaster NHK reported on Thursday that Japan plans to allocate 13.9 trillion yen ($89.7 billion) from its general account to finance a new stimulus package aimed at alleviating the impact of rising prices on households. In corporate news, Tokyo Gas climbed nearly +5%, extending yesterday’s gains after activist investor Elliott Investment Management disclosed in a regulatory filing that it had taken a 5.03% stake in the company. Investors are now awaiting Japanese inflation data, set to be released on Friday, which is expected to provide further insight into the monetary policy outlook. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +11.66% to 26.15.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Nvidia (NVDA) slid more than -2% in pre-market trading after the chip giant’s Q4 revenue guidance failed to meet lofty expectations of some investors.
Snowflake (SNOW) soared over +21% in pre-market trading after the company reported better-than-expected Q3 results and raised its full-year product revenue guidance.
Copa Holdings (CPA) fell more than -3% in pre-market trading after reporting weaker-than-expected Q3 revenue.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - November 21st
Intuit (INTU), Deere (DE), Copart (CPRT), Ross Stores (ROST), NetApp (NTAP), Ke Hldg (BEKE), Warner Music (WMG), BJs Wholesale Club (BJ), Elastic (ESTC), Gap (GAP), UGI (UGI), Construction Partners (ROAD), Atkore Intl (ATKR), iQIYI (IQ), Vestis (VSTS), Shoe Carnival (SCVL), Natural Grocers Vitamin (NGVC), Matthews (MATW), Cool Company Oy (CLCO), Ituran (ITRN), Logility Supply Chain Solutions (LGTY), Nano X (NNOX), Geospace (GEOS), Baozun Inc (BZUN), Cerence (CRNC).
