December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are down -0.05%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are down -0.13% this morning, taking a breather after yesterday’s rally, while investors turned their attention to U.S. jobless claims numbers due later today and key non-farm payrolls data scheduled for Friday.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed higher, with the S&P 500, the Dow, and the Nasdaq 100 posting new all-time highs. Marvell Technology (MRVL) soared over +23% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the company posted upbeat Q3 results and issued above-consensus Q4 guidance. Also, Salesforce (CRM) climbed about +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Dow after the software giant reported better-than-expected Q3 revenue and raised the lower end of its full-year revenue forecast. In addition, Pure Storage (PSTG) surged over +22% after the data storage company reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results and lifted its annual revenue outlook. On the bearish side, The Campbell’s Company (CPB) slid more than -6% after reporting weaker-than-expected FQ1 net sales.
The ADP National Employment report released on Wednesday showed that U.S. private nonfarm payrolls rose by 146K in November, down from 184K in October (revised from 233K) and missing the consensus estimate of 152K. Also, the U.S. November ISM services index fell to 52.1, weaker than expectations of 55.7. In addition, the final estimate of the U.S. November S&P Global services PMI was revised lower to 56.1 from the 57.0 preliminary reading. Finally, U.S. factory orders rose +0.2% m/m in October, in line with expectations.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the U.S. economy is in “very good shape.” He added that policymakers could afford to be “a little more cautious” with lowering rates. Also, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated, “It seems important to maintain policy optionality, and the time may be approaching to consider slowing the pace of interest rate reductions or pausing, to carefully assess the current economic environment, incoming information, and evolving outlook.” In addition, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that there is no immediate urgency to lower rates.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts that economic activity saw a slight increase in November following little change in previous months, with U.S. businesses becoming more optimistic about demand prospects. The report noted that modest or moderate growth in three regions offset flat or slightly declining activity in two others. The Fed’s districts also reported that prices increased at a modest pace. “Though growth in economic activity was generally small, expectations for growth rose moderately across most geographies and sectors,” according to the Beige Book. “Business contacts expressed optimism that demand will rise in coming months. Consumer spending was generally stable.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 74.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 26.0% chance of no rate change at December’s policy meeting.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists estimate this figure to arrive at 215K, compared to last week’s number of 213K.
The U.S. Trade Balance data will be released today as well. Economists forecast this figure to stand at -$75.70B in October, compared to the previous figure of -$84.40B.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Dollar General (DG), Kroger (KR), DocuSign (DOCU), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), GitLab (GTLB), Lululemon Athletica (LULU), and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) are scheduled to report their quarterly figures today.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward a speech from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.214%, up +0.77%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.55% this morning as investors debated the implications of the collapse of the French government. The government collapsed as expected after far-right and left-wing lawmakers joined forces to pass a no-confidence motion, and President Macron now needs to find a new Prime Minister capable of passing a 2025 budget through the deeply divided parliament. Travel and bank stocks led the gains on Thursday. Data from Eurostat released on Thursday showed that monthly retail sales in the Euro Area fell in October for the first time since June. Separately, data from the Federal Statistical Office showed that Germany’s monthly manufacturing orders slumped in October, driven by a drop in automotive orders. In corporate news, Safran (SAF.FP) slid over -5% after the French jet engine maker provided new financial targets.
Germany’s Factory Orders and Eurozone’s Retail Sales data were released today.
The German October Factory Orders came in at -1.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of -2.0% m/m.
Eurozone October Retail Sales arrived at -0.5% m/m and +1.9% y/y, compared to expectations of -0.4% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.12%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.30%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher today, rebounding from earlier losses as investors cautiously awaited a major policy conference in Beijing. Software and securities stocks led the gains on Thursday. However, worries about China’s economic challenges and escalating trade tensions with the U.S. kept sentiment subdued. Market participants await the Central Economic Work Conference for additional insights into the nation’s stimulus to boost the economy and next year’s growth target. Meanwhile, the official Xinhua News Agency published a series of articles ahead of next week’s key meeting, cautioning against blindly pursuing faster growth and signaling a greater emphasis on stimulating consumption. Still, Nomura economists highlighted in a report that economic stimulus measures might not be announced until the March 2025 National People’s Congress. In corporate news, ESR Group rose over +3% in Hong Kong after a consortium led by its founder, U.S. funds, and Qatar’s state investment arm proposed taking the company private.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index ended in the green today as a record high on Wall Street overnight boosted sentiment, though profit-taking limited gains. Financial stocks outperformed on Thursday amid sustained expectations of additional rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, BOJ board member Toyoaki Nakamura stated on Thursday that the central bank must proceed “carefully” in raising interest rates. “We are at an important stage where we must adjust the degree of monetary easing carefully in accordance with the state of the economic recovery while checking many data,” Nakamura said. In other news, foreign investors offloaded Japanese stocks for a second straight week through November 30th, driven by a strengthening yen, anticipation of a BOJ rate hike, and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff hike pledges. According to Ministry of Finance data, foreign investors sold a net 607.7 billion yen ($4.04 billion) in Japanese stocks last week. In corporate news, electronics component manufacturer Fujikura gained over +3% amid anticipated demand for data centers. Investors now look to Japanese wage data due on Friday for fresh clues on the outlook for monetary policy. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +4.51% to 22.23.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
SentinelOne (S) plunged over -14% in pre-market trading after the cybersecurity company reported a wider-than-expected Q3 loss.
Synopsys (SNPS) slumped more than -7% in pre-market trading after the company issued below-consensus FQ1 guidance.
Five Below (FIVE) surged over +13% in pre-market trading after the discount retailer posted upbeat Q3 results and raised its full-year guidance.
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) tumbled more than -16% in pre-market trading after reporting weaker-than-expected Q3 revenue and cutting its annual sales outlook.
Applied Materials (AMAT) fell over -2% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $164.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - December 5th
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Canadian Imperial Bank (CM), Kroger (KR), Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Samsara (IOT), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Cooper (COO), Brown Forman (BFb), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Dollar General (DG), Guidewire (GWRE), DocuSign (DOCU), Gitlab (GTLB), UiPath (PATH), Smartsheet (SMAR), Hashicorp (HCP), Science Applications (SAIC), Signet Jewelers (SIG), Korn Ferry (KFY), GMS Inc (GMS), Asana (ASAN), Victoria's Secret (VSCO), John Wiley&Sons (WLY), Argan (AGX), Patterson (PDCO), Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF), Caleres (CAL), Smith & Wesson (SWBI), Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW), Lands’ End (LE), Movado (MOV), Zumiez (ZUMZ), Methode Electronics (MEI), Domo (DOMO), Americas Car-Mart (CRMT), KNOT Offshore Partners (KNOP), Hooker Furniture (HOFT), Tuniu Corp (TOUR), Tillys (TLYS), Duluth Holdings (DLTH), American Outdoor Brands (AOUT).
