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U.S. stocks were mixed Thursday, while Treasury bonds stalled amid the best monthly rally since the global financial crisis, as investors looked to close out the solid November rally on a high note while eyeing key inflation data and and OPEC decision on production cuts later in the session.
Updated at 2:21 PM EST
Oil slick
oil prices slumped lower in the afternoon session after OPEC leaders, as well as non-member allies such as Russia, reached an agreement to voluntarily deepen the cartel's production cuts that fell shy of market forecasts.
Saudi Arabia will roll over its 1 million barrel per day reduction until July, while Russia will boost its own cuts to 500,000 from 300,000 barrels per day. No collectively tally for the group, however, was agreed at the delayed meeting, suggesting members may not adhere to their verbal commitments.
Brent crude contracts for February delivery, the global pricing benchmark, were last seen trading $2.03 lower on the session at $80.85 per barrel, while WTI futures for the same month, which are tightly-linked to U.S. gasoline prices, were marked $2.09 lower at $75.96 per barrel.
Updated at 11:07 AM EST
Dow at the bow
The Dow is powering Wall Street gains heading into the middle of the session, with the average now up 310 points, or 0.9%, powered by Salesforce, UnitedHealth (UNH) -) and Boeing (BA) -).
The S&P 500 is up just 1 point, however, while the Nasdaq was marked 86 points, or 0.6% lower.
Updated at 9:38 AM EST
Stocks edging higher
A curiously muted open for stocks, with the S&P 500 up just 4 points, or 0.1%, in the first minutes of trading while the Dow gets a big boost from Salesforce CRM to open 209 points to the upside. The Nasdaq is up 4 points.
Updated at 8:48 AM EST
So it *was* transitory after all?
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, eased to its slowest pace in nearly two-and-a-half years last month, according to BEA data, with the six-month average now close to the central bank's 2% target.
Stocks are building gains from the release, which was paired with a modest increase of 7,000, to 218,000, in weekly jobless claims, with futures tied to the S&P 500 indicating an 18 point opening bell gain and those linked to the Dow priced for a 268 point boost.
The tech-focused Nasdaq, which is up 10.95% for the month and a staggering 36.2% for the year, is set for another 650 point bump with investors likely focused on Tesla's (TSLA) -) first deliveries of its long-delayed Cybertruck.
Related: Fed inflation gauge cools again in October, adding to spring rate cut bets
Updated at 7:45 AM EST
Bond. Treasury bond.
Traders extended the best month for Treasury bonds since 2008 ahe
Updated at 7:45 AM EST
Keep on (Cyber) trucking
Tesla shares are moving higher, and last marked 1% higher in pre-market trading, as the clean-energy carmaker prepares for the launch of its long-delayed Cybertruck.
Tesla, which hasn't released 2023 production targets for the Cybertruck as yet, expects to make around 250,000 by 2025, which is expected to cost around $50,000 for the single-motor version and between $60,000 and $80,000 for the longer-range dual and tri-motor options.
Cybertruck Delivery Event https://t.co/rWd111HvHc
— Tesla (@Tesla) November 29, 2023
Updated at 7:11 AM EST
Ford follow-up
Ford (F) -) shares are modestly higher after the carmaker followed General Motors GM in updated its 2023 profit forecasts after reaching a deal with the UAW late last month.
The stock isn't getting a similar GM boost, however, as Ford hasn't unveiled any shareholders returns to match its rivals buyback and dividend boost.
Related: Ford follows GM with new profit forecast, UAW strike cost tally
Stock Market Today
The S&P 500, the broadest measure of U.S. stocks, is on pace for its best monthly gain in two years, and one of the four or five best months on record, with an 8.6% advance powered by a pullback in Treasury yields and a slumping U.S. dollar.
This month will go down as one of the best ever for the S&P 500.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 30, 2023
Did you know that after previous months that gained >8% continued strong returns were common?
Higher a year later 90% of the time and up 15.8% on average.
We've been OW equities for a year and remain there. pic.twitter.com/THSPieThYC
Benchmark 10-year note yields have fallen around 60 basis points so far this month, and were last marked at an early September low of 4.288% in overnight dealing, amid renewed bets that the Federal Reserve is not only done with its rate-hiking cycle, the most aggressive in four decades, but will begin cutting rates as soon as the first quarter of next year.
Inflation data later this morning could test that theory, although economists expect to see another overall decline in the Fed's preferred gauge, the Core PCE Price Index, which is expected to ease to an annual rate of 3.5% with a monthly advance of just 0.2%.
A benign reading could accelerate the market's assumption of Fed rate cuts, which the CME Group's FedWatch suggest could happen as early as March, while a stronger reading could trigger a spike to Treasury bond yields and act as a headwind for stocks on the final trading day of the month.
Markets will also be tracking developments at today's virtual OPEC+ meeting, which was delayed from last week, as the cartel and its non-member allies, such as Russia, attempt to reach an agreement that will extend production cuts into early next year and beyond.
Brent crude contracts for January delivery, the global pricing benchmark, were up $1.05 in overnight trading at $84.15 per barrel while WTI futures for the same month, which are tightly-linked to domestic gas prices, added 95 cents to change hands at $78.68 per barrel.
Related: Salesforce surges on Q3 earnings beat amid 'green shoots' of cloud demand rebound
In overseas markets, Europe's Stoxx 600 was marked 0.48% higher in late Frankfurt trading, with traders eying the release of PCE inflation data later in the U.S. session after Eurostat figures showed inflation in the region easing to 2.4% in November, down from the 2.9% recorded in October and the 10.6% peak rate reached last year.
Britain's FTSE 100, meanwhile, gained 0.5% in London.
Another favorable inflation surprise:
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) November 30, 2023
Per this @FT chart, Eurozone #inflation fell from 2.9% in October to 2.4% in November, better than the consensus forecast of 2.7%.
For its part, core inflation declined from 4.2% to 3.6%.
The data will reinforce the #markets' pricing of rate… pic.twitter.com/c3NOgySmU2
Overnight in Asia, another weak data reading from China, which showed its powerhouse manufacturing sector contract for a second consecutive month, lead to a mixed session for China-based stocks, but gains elsewhere helped the region-wide MSCI ex-Japan index rise 0.22% to take its November gain to just under 7%, the strongest advance in 10 months.
Japan's Nikkei 225, which hit a fresh 33-year high earlier this month, closed out the month with a 0.5% gain that pegged the index at 33,486.89, lifting its November advance to around 8.5%.
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