Stocks opened higher Thursday only to find themselves struggling for direction by lunchtime. Today's choppy price action came after the latest economic data showed that the labor market continues to cool, which arrived just ahead of Friday's highly anticipated August jobs report.
Ahead of the opening bell, data from ADP showed that private payrolls rose by 99,000 in August, the slowest increase since 2021.
"The job market's downward drift brought us to slower-than-normal hiring after two years of outsized growth," said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. "The next indicator to watch is wage growth, which is stabilizing after a dramatic post-pandemic slowdown."
Indeed, the data showed the median change in annual pay for both job-stayers (+4.8%) and job-changers (+7.3) was unchanged from July.
"Following ADP's release of weaker than expected private job growth, financial markets are pricing in roughly 50-50 odds that the Fed cuts interest rates by half a percent at their September 18 decision versus a quarter percent," says Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.
Services sector expands for the second straight month
Elsewhere, the Institute for Supply Management's Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed that the services sector expanded for a second consecutive month in August, edging up to 51.5 from 51.4 in July.
"On balance the latest data in hand point to continued economic growth but at a slower pace than early in 2024 or in 2023," Adams says. The data also mentioned political uncertainty as a drag on economic growth, he notes, while adding that "sometimes it is worth stating the obvious: This drag is temporary."
Verizon confirms acquisition of Frontier Communications
In single-stock news, Verizon Communications (VZ) stock fell 0.4% after the telecommunications giant confirmed it will buy Frontier Communications Parent (FYBR, -9.5%) in an all-cash deal valued at $20 billion.
UBS Global Research analyst John Hodulik (Neutral, the equivalent of Hold) believes the transaction will "reinforce carrier interest in fiber assets following AT&T's (T, +0.4%) expanded fiber strategy and T-Mobile's (TMUS, -0.8%) series of fiber deals as the convergence of wireless and wired connectivity gains steam."
The analyst adds that Verizon's investment in fiber will be "a driver of longer-term growth amid a maturing wireless market."
Separately, VZ announced its 18th straight dividend hike, increasing its quarterly payout by 1.9%.
C3.ai slumps as its subscription revenue falls short
C3.ai (AI) stock plunged 8.2% after the artificial intelligence (AI) application software firm's subscription revenue came up short of analysts' expectations for its fiscal first quarter. The company also said it expects to generate negative free cash flow over the next two quarters but anticipates FCF will be positive for its full fiscal year.
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives (Outperform, the equivalent of Buy) sees this as a "slight bump in the road" but remains positive going into 2025. The company has "a strong pipeline across industries coupled with solid top-line growth," Ives says, and he anticipates "solid bottom-line expansion as the AI revolution gains more momentum over the next few years."
Tesla stock sails higher on FSD announcement
Tesla (TSLA) stock rallied 4.9% – making it one of the best S&P 500 stocks today – after the electric vehicle (EV) maker announced it will launch its full self-driving (FSD) driver assistance software to Europe and China in the first quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval.
TSLA stock is up more than 22% in the past six months, making some on Wall Street hesitant to give the all clear. Truist Securities analyst William Stein is one of several folks with a Hold rating on Tesla. "Tesla's development has been a remarkable success story," Stein says, but "the company's best days, in terms of volume production, product innovation, and, especially, artificial intelligence (AI) innovations, are still down the road."
Tesla's gain helped the Nasdaq Composite finish the day up 0.3% at 17,127. The S&P 500 ended with a modest 0.3% loss to 5,503, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 40,755.
