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U.S. stocks finished higher Friday, paired with an upside move in Treasury-bond yields, as investors focused on a surprisingly solid November jobs report that could test the market's current forecast for a soft landing in the world's biggest economy.
Updated at 4:25 PM EST
Win streak continues for stocks
The Nasdaq, Dow and S&P 500 all finished the day with small gains, as the jobs report signaled to investors that the economy continues to show strength. A surprise jump in the monthly consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan added to falling inflation concerns.
The FOMC meets next week ...
Related: New report shows the real culprit behind high prices and inflation
Updated at 12:53 PM EST
Holding gains
Stocks are holding onto meager gains Friday, which is something of an achievement given the three-day gains we've seen in Treasury yields, the weekly rise for the dollar and the 1% rally we're watching today in global oil prices.
The S&P 500 entered the final hours of the trading week marked 5 points higher, or 0.12%, while the Dow is up 55 points and the Nasdaq 27 points.
Updated at 11:32 AM EST
Back to the basis point(s)
Treasury yields are inching higher in late-morning trade, with benchmark 10-year notes rising to 4.251% and 2-year paper pegged at 4.702%, following both the surprisingly strong jobs data and consumer confidence figures.
Updated at 10:07 AM EST
Go Blue!
The University of Michigan, aside from boasting the highest-rate college football team in the nation this year, publishes a monthly survey of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations that is keenly tracked by Wall Street.
The survey's final November reading showed a huge jump in consumer confidence, to the highest levels since August, while respondents said their year-ahead inflation forecasts slipped to 3.1%, the lowest since 2021.
Stocks turned higher on the data, with the S&P 500 marked 9 points to the upside and the Dow up 85 points. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, added 15 points, or 0.15%.
Updated at 8:49 AM EST
Stocks taking it in stride
Faster wage growth, the best labor force participation rate since the pandemic and a headline unemployment rate of 3.7% aren't pushing stocks as low as you might imagine in early trading, with investors holding onto modest gains despite the bump higher in Treasury yields.
The S&P 500 was marked 2 points lower, or 0.04%, in the opening minutes of trading while the Dow was marked 7 points lower. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, slipped 20 points, or 0.15%.
Updated at 8:49 AM EST
More jobs, more money ... more inflation?
The economy added nearly 200,000 new jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday, while average hourly earnings posted their biggest month-on-month increase since July of last year, as the resilient labor market continues to test Wall Street's rate-cut bets.
Treasury yields jumped higher in the wake of the data, with 10-year notes rising to 4.214%, but stocks are holding their nerve heading into the opening bell, with futures tied to the S&P 500 indicating a 4 point opening bell gain and those linked to the Dow suggesting a 22 point advance.
Higher bond yields have the tech-focused Nasdaq called 47 points lower.
Related: Jobs report surprise shows solid November hires as unemployment eases to 3.7%
Updated at 7:09 AM EST
Labor market resilience
Investors are betting on big Fed rate cuts next year, based on the idea that the U.S. economy is primed for a long-delayed recession. Friday's jobs report, however, could put those assumptions to the test as bond markets begin to growing increasingly nervous with the overwhelming 'Fed easing' consensus.
Related: Jobs Report Preview: Resilient labor market mystery confounds Wall Street
Stock Market Today:
Stocks yesterday got a big boost Thursday from a renewed surge in AI-related tech names, including Google (GOOGL) -) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) -). This helped power the Nasdaq to a near 200-point advance, extending its fourth quarter gain to around 8.5%.
The broader S&P 500 ended Thursday trading only 0.8% higher, however, as the months-long Treasury bond rally stalled. Benchmark 10-year note yields moved up to 4.15%, and again to 4.182% in the overnight session, heading into today's jobs report.
The U.S. dollar index, meanwhile, was marked 0.21% higher in overnight trading at 103.758. The tick up was complicated by another surge in the yen linked to comments from Bank of Japan policymakers that suggest the era of negative rates in the world's third largest economy is coming to an end.
Friday's focus, however, will be on the Labor Department's November employment report at 8:30 am U.S. Eastern. It's expected to show the economy added 180,000 new jobs last month, with year-on-year wage growth moderating to around 4% and the headline unemployment rate holding at 3.9%.
The Federal Reserve's next policy meeting is looming next week, alongside a heavy slate of Treasury bond auctions and a key November inflation reading. So a lot is riding on today's jobs report to help clarify the resiliency of the labor market while testing the market's bets that the Fed will cut rates in the spring.
CME Group's FedWatch current pegs the changes of a quarter point rate cut in March at 51.9%, up from just 18.2% a month ago, with the odds of a move in May a 99.7% certainty.
That puts the current S&P 500 rally, which has lifted the benchmark more than 6% so far this quarter, on hold ahead of the report. S&P futures are indicating a modest 5 point opening bell dip amid exceptionally thin overnight volumes.
Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, are priced for a 2 point decline while this tied to the Nasdaq are suggesting a 35 point move to the downside.
Global stocks were also in wait-and-see mode in the overnight session, with the MCSI World index on pace for its first weekly decline since October.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was up 0.5% in early Frankfurt trading, while Britain's FTSE 100 gained 0.37% in London.
Overnight in Asia, the yen's ongoing surge weighed on export and manufacturing stocks, pulling the Nikkei 1.76% lower into the close, while the broader MSCI ex-Japan benchmark rose 0.42%.
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