Closing post
Time to wrap up…. and get ready for Christmas! Here’s a quick recap.
American Airlines has lifted an hour-long ground stop of all its flights in the US due to an unspecified technical issue, a notice on the US aviation regulator’s website showed.
The ground stop, ahead of the busy Christmas travel, had threatened the holiday plans of thousands.
AA had told customers:
“A technical issue is affecting American flights this morning. Our teams are working to resolve the issue as quickly as possible, and we apologize to our customers for the inconvenience.”
Shares have risen in London, on the final trading day before Christmas. Stocks are also rallying on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 is now up 0.6%.
But footfall at UK shopping outlets yesterday was lower than a year earlier, in a worrying sign for the retail sector.
The British car industry has welcomed government proposals that could allow Toyota Prius-style hybrids to continue to be sold in the UK after 2030, as part of a package of measures to ease regulations on carmakers.
UK housebuilder Vistry has issued its third profit warning in three months, in a year-end blow to the construction company that sent its shares to a two-year low.
Very best wishes for Christmas and the festive season!
Bitcoin is enjoying a pre-Christmas rally, towards the record highs seen earlier this month.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency is up 3.75% today at 97,341.
This follows reports that the cryptocurrency industry is pushing President-elect Donald Trump’s team to kick start an overhaul of US crypto policy once he has been sworn in next month.
Industry officials hope this could mean executive orders creating a bitcoin stockpile, ensuring the industry can access banking services, and creating a crypto council, in the first 100 days of Trump’s second term….
American Airlines’ shares aren’t suffering badly from this morning’s disruption.
They’re down 0.4% in early trading at $17.18, having recovered most of their pre-market losses before Wall Street opened.
Updated
Airlines set for busiest Christmas season ever
The disruption at American Airlines came today as the industry prepared for its busiest Christmas season ever.
A record 54mn passengers are forecast to fly on US carriers between December 19 and January 6, according to trade group Airlines for America (A4A).
UK carriers are also expecting a record-breaking festive period, with 6.1m seats expected to be flown between December 20 and January 2, aviation data company Cirium has predicted.
Wall Street trading has begun, rather gently, on the final day before the Christmas break.
Barely a mouse is stirring on the Dow Jones industrial average, which has gained 4 points, or 0.0097%, in early trading to 42,911 points.
There’s a little more action on the broader S&P 500 index – it’s risen by 17.5 points, or 0.29%, to 5,991 points.
Palantir Technologies are the top riser, up 4.6%, following reports the company is in talks to create a consortium to jointly bid for US government work.
Elon Musk’s Tesla is close behind, up 3.7%.
This is helping to lift the Nasdaq composite index of tech stocks up by 0.5%.
American Airline’s shares had dropped by around 3.8% in pre-market trading after reporting the technical problem that forced a temporary stop to flights.
But now that the ground has been cancelled, they’ve recovered most of that ground – and are down just 0.8% with 30 minutes before Wall Street opens.
CNN confirms that American Airlines is boarding flights again, after the FAA lifted its nationwide groundstop.
They say:
“We apologize to our customers for the inconvenience,” American Airlines said in a statement.
David Myers, a 62-year-old disaster consultant traveling from from Salisbury, Maryland, to New Orleans with a layover in Charlotte said he was first alerted to the issue at 6 am Tuesday morning. He and his wife are trying to spend Christmas with their children.
“It’s Christmas Eve, so complaining doesn’t seem quite right,” Myers told CNN. “And safety always comes first. But more information at the gate would be helpful.”
American Airlines resumes service after briefly halting all US flights due to a technical issue https://t.co/P5gP6t3LBx
— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) December 24, 2024
American Airlines lifts ground stop after unspecified technical issue
There’s been some worrying disruption to pre-Christmas flights in the US today – but happily, the problem may now be fixed.
An unspecified technical issue forced American Airlines to suspend all flights earlier today, which must have delayed travel plans for some passengers across the country.
The airline told one passenger, on X, that it was “currently experiencing a technical issue with all American Airlines flights”.
We're currently experiencing a technical issue with all American Airlines flights. Your safety is our utmost priority, once this is rectified, we'll have you safely on your way to your destination.
— americanair (@AmericanAir) December 24, 2024
🚨AMERICAN AIRLINE PASSENGERS🚨 There is a FULL GROUND STOP for all @AmericanAir flights right now due to technical issues. They are hoping to get things back up and running asap. Not ideal on a busy travel day like Christmas Eve. Stick with @WGNMorningNews for updates. pic.twitter.com/DwI6J1vHau
— Brhett Vickery (@BrhettVickery) December 24, 2024
But after roughly an hour, the ground stop has now been lifted, according to a notice on the U.S. aviation regulator’s website.
It appears the American Airlines (AA) ground stop was cancelled. pic.twitter.com/RCKsBULZmi
— Jeffrey J. Carpenter (@droopydog500) December 24, 2024
Updated
FTSE 100 rises on first day of Santa Rally season
London’s stock market has closed for Christmas, after a morning in which shares have risen in the City.
The blue-chip FTSE 100 share index has closed up 34 points, or 0.4%, at 8136 – meaning the traditional seven day “Santa Claus Rally” period has got off to a solid, if unspectacular start (see earlier post for details of this festive stock market theme).
AirTel Africa finished the shortened session as the top riser, up 3.8%, after beginning a new share buyback progrmme, followed by Pershing Square (+2.2%), mining company Anglo American (+2%) and Vodafone (+1.9%).
Housbuilders, though, had a poor day following this morning’s profits warning from Vistry. Persimmon was the top FTSE 100 faller, down 2.4%.
Vistry itself has posted a 16% plunge today, putting it firmly at the bottom of the FTSE 250 share index.
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says the FTSE 100 has risen despite recent “lacklustre economic data”, adding:
Monday’s session saw the index close slightly lower after opening in the red, as final GDP figures revealed the UK economy stalled in the third quarter with no growth from the prior period and just a 0.9% annual rise.
Adding to the wintry chill, second-quarter growth was revised down from 0.5% to 0.4%, stoking concerns about the UK’s slowing momentum heading into the new year.
Updated
With 30 minutes trading to go… the London stock market is still showing gains.
The FTSE 100 index is up 0.57%, while the samller FTSE 250 index has gained 0.7% – despite Vistry dragging it down after this morning’s profit warning.
Year-on-year footfall at UK retail dropped yesterday
We have further signs today that this is not a brilliant Christmas for the retail sector.
Yesterday, year-on-year footfall at UK shopping destinations was 1.2% lower than on 23rd December 2023 (a Saturday), according to retail technology firm MRI Software.
Visits to UK high streets were 5.3% lower than a year ago, reflecting the general decline in physical shopping since the Covid-19 pandemic, although this was somewhat balanced out by a 4.9% rise at retail parks.
On a weekly basis, footfall was up 28.5% in all UK retail destinations compared to the week before.
Jenni Matthews, marketing and insights director at MRI Software, says:
This spike reflects the attraction of the vast leisure and retail options available to consumers especially large families buying those last-minute gifts, groceries and also looking for that experiential element to keep the children entertained. High streets also saw strong week on week growth (+18.8%) however this was over half of what was seen in shopping centres.
However, footfall remained 5.3% lower in high streets compared to the same date last year suggesting the cost of living pressures continue for many families. This was also reflected in modest year on year rises recorded in shopping centres and retail parks of +1.4% and +4.9%, respectively.
Elsewhere in the car industry, shares in Honda and Nissan have jumped today after the two car makers confirmed they are in talks about a possible three-way merger with Mitsubishi.
Honda shares have jumped 12% today, while Nissan gained 6%.
Combining Japan’s second- and third-largest carmakers, plus Mitsubishi, would create the world’s third-largest carmaker in terms of annual sales, behind only Japanese rival Toyota and Germany’s Volkswagen.
It’s a defensive effort to join forces as the automotive industry goes through its biggest ever period of upheaval.
Do you still believe in the ‘Santa Rally’?
Jonathan Webster-Smith, chief investment officer at Bowmore Asset Management, makes an important point about the Santa rally concept:
“Every year investors hope for a Santa rally – but they should be careful about trading on the back of it.”
“The years in which this occurs are a bit too random”.
Helpfully, Webster-Smith, has also pulled together some stats to back up the idea that stock markets tend to rise at this time of year.
The FTSE 100 has risen in three of the past five years (2019-2023, inclusive) for the ten-day period leading up to New Year
Since its creation in 1896, the Dow Jones index has historically risen in 77% of years for the period between December 26 and January 2 – averaging +1.5%
The ‘Santa rally’ rise has occurred in 75% of the years since 1950 for the Dow Jones, according to one study
US stock market has averaged +1.3% over the last 70 years for the period between December 24 and December 31 according to another study
These gains significantly outperform the average six day return throughout the rest of the year – averaging just +0.2%
But why?
Well, there’s a few likely causes – from improved sentiment over the Christmas break (unless you’re working, perhaps…), money flowing into the market from bonuses at the end of the year, and the publication of lists of shares which may do well in the new year.
The French stock market is also feeling a little pre-Christmas cheer, despite the recent political turmoil.
The CAC 40 index is up 0.5% this morning, at 7311 points, as traders digest the news that France’s new prime minister François Bayrou has selected Eric Lombard, head of state-backed financial group Caisse des Dépôts, as the country’s finance minister.
Over in Madrid, the IBEX is 0.16% higher.
Across Europe, travel and leisure stocks, and shares in energy companies, are leading the gains.
Germany and Italy’s markets are closed today.
The Santa Rally is picking up pace!
The UK’s FTSE 100 index is now up 0.5% or 45 points at 8147 points, led by telecoms firm Airtel Africa (+2.5%), which has begun a new $100m share buyback this week.
Its followed by retailer JD Sports (+2.1%) and private equity group Pershing Square (+1.6%).
Today’s gains mean the FTSE 100 has gained over 5.3% so far this year, although it’s still down 1.7% during December.
Maritime AI specialist Windward taken over in £216m deal
It’s been quite a busy year for takeovers in the City, and the drama isn’t over yet.
Maritime analytics firm Windward has agreed to be snapped up by an investment fund in a £216m deal announced this morning.
The company, which is chaired by former BP boss Lord John Browne, is to be bought by Octopus UK Bidco, a subsidiary of an FTV Capital investment fund.
The deal will see the FTV fund pay 215p per Windward share, a 47% premium on its previous closing price.
Shares in Windward have jumped 42% to 207p, their highest since January 2022, shortly after it floated on the stock market.
Lord Browne says:
“Windward has become firmly established on the world stage, but as an organisation we recognise there remains an untapped opportunity ahead to further transform additional spheres of global trade.
Following due consideration, the Windward Independent Directors believe this transaction is in the best interests of all stakeholders, including our shareholders and employees; providing the environment to facilitate this expansion and support the future growth of the company.”
Car industry welcomes UK consultation on electric cars
The UK auto industry is welcoming the government’s decision to launch a consultation into how to phase out new petrol and diesel cars by 2030.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander has launched the consultation this morning, asking automotive and charging experts to give their views on how to end the sale of internal combustion engine-powered vehicles by the end of the decade.
In this year’s election campaign, Labour pledged to restore the 2030 phase-out date for new purely petrol and diesel cars, after the previous UK government extended the phase out to 2035.
Under the UK’s current targets, carmakers must ensure that a certain percentage of their sales are zero emission vehicles, or face financial penalties.
The new consultation will run for eight weeks, and will be “focused on how, not if, we reach the 2030 target”, the Department for Transport says. It is in two parts – the first will look at whether hybrids, and plug-in hybrids should count towards the EV targets, and the second will consider technical changes to the mandate.
Mike Hawes, chief executive of industry body the SMMT, says it is “imperative” the government resolves the uncertainty around the move to electric cars:
“The automotive industry welcomes government’s review of both the end of sale date for cars powered solely by petrol or diesel, and possible changes to the flexibilities around the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate. These are both critical issues for an industry that is facing significant challenges globally as it tries to decarbonise ahead of natural market demand.
Aside from the billions invested in new technologies and products, it has cost manufacturers in excess of £4 billion in discounting in the UK this year alone. This is unsustainable and, with the 2025 market looking under even greater pressure, it is imperative we get an urgent resolution, with a clear intent to adapt the regulation to support delivery, backed by bold incentives to stimulate demand.
Such action will support not only the industry, but also deliver for the economy, consumer, government and the environment.”
Matthew Adams, head of transport at the Association for Renewable Energy and Clean Technology, says the consultion should help speed up the rollout of electric car infrastructure:
“Today is welcome news that the Government will look to restore the end of sale of internal combustion engines to 2030. For the EV infrastructure sector this will help provide investor certainty and allow us to deploy charging infrastructure further and quicker than ever before. Decarbonising road transport is crucial to hitting net zero and this consultation is the best next step in getting us there.”
Edmund King, AA president, says new clarity on the UK’s plans will help consumers move to EVs:
“The AA supported the original zero emission new cars sales deadline of 2030 as ‘challenging but ambitious’ and the results of this consultation should define the firm route to zero emissions.
Understandably drivers have been ‘hesitant not hostile’ about the transition but more clarity on hybrids, vans and planning support for accelerated charging infrastructure should give them more certainty. Climate change is a critical global challenge and decarbonising transport is essential.”
Vistry shares plunge after profit warning
Housebuilder Vistry is firmly on the City’s naughty list, after reporting its third profit warning of the year (see earlier post).
Shares in Vistry have plunged by almost 20% at the start of trading, making it the worst performer on the FTSE 250 index of medium-sized companies.
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says:
Vistry’s festive season is anything but merry, with profit guidance sliding down the chimney once again, this time from £300m to c.£250m, as delays to year-end transactions failed to make it onto the nice list.
This marks the group’s third profit downgrade of the year, a troubling trend driven by a string of poor management decisions and forecasting missteps that have left investors feeling far from jolly. Even a late cash influx in December couldn’t light up the season, with net debt now expected to close the year at around £200m - a far cry from the neutral footing investors had hoped for.
As the year ends on a sour note, Vistry faces a long winter of rebuilding trust, leaving investors with little choice but to mull over their options.
The London stock market is open, and shares are rising.
It’s not exactly a full-blown Santa rally, though.
The FTSE 100 index is up 32 points, or 0.4%, to 8,135 points, its highest level since last Thursday (when a hawkish message from the US Federal Reserve spooked investors).
Top risers in London include gold producer Endeavour Mining (+1.6%), retailers Next (+1%) and Associated British Foods (+1.1%) and Lloyds Banking Group (+0.8%).
Tue 24 Dec 2024
— Mehrdad Yousefi (@MY21_Oracle) December 24, 2024
(Sharecast News) - London open
The FTSE 100 is expected to open 56 points higher for the truncated Christmas Eve session on Tuesday, having closed up 0.22% on Monday at 8,102.72.
Another profit warning at Vistry
British housebuilder Vistry has issued its third profit warning in three months, resulting in a year-end blow to the construction company.
The business, which was relegated from the FTSE 100 share index on Monday, now expects annual adjusted pre-tax profit of just £250m, down from previous guidance of around £300m.
The group – once known as Bovis Homes - said this is partly due to delays, with a number of developments having not yet been completed, and transactions with partners having been kicked down the road to 2025.
Vistry also said that it had also ditched a number of proposed deals “where the commercial terms on offer were not sufficiently attractive.” It is expecting that better terms and options will open up next year.
But this is the third profit warning from Vistry in as many months.
In October, Vistry launched an independent review of operations in its south division after revealing it had “understated” total build costs by about 10%. It estimated at the time that this would knock profits by £115m over the next two years, and ultimately cut annual profit for 2024 to £350m, well below the £419m last year. The news sent its shares plummeting, wiping £1bn off the company’s value.
A month later, in November, Vestry said it expected a bigger hit to profit of around £165m, and downgraded its 2024 profit expectations to £300m.
Commenting on the third profit warning on Tuesday, chairman and chief executive Greg Fitzgerald said it had been a “challenging past few months”:
“Today’s announcement and the financial outcome for FY24 is disappointing. Our top priority for 2025 is to continue building and delivering high quality mixed tenure new homes for our partners and private customers, and to do our part in addressing the country’s acute housing shortage.
We remain committed to our partnership housing strategy and are firmly focused on positioning the business to move forwards and rebuild profitability.”
Introduction: Investors hope for Santa rally
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
It’s the final trading day in global stock markets before Christmas, and traders will be hoping for a visit from Santa.
The Santa Rally is a stock market phenomenon where shares on developed markets tend to rise around the Christmas period. And there are signs today that it’s arrived – late.
Stocks are rallying across the Asia-Pacific region, where China’s CSI 300 index has gained 1.27% today, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up 1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 has nudged up by 0.25% and South Korea’s KOSPI index has risen by a more modest 0.13%
That follows gains on Wall Street last night, where the S&P 500 rose by 0.7%.
This sets the UK market up for gains in a shortened Christmas Eve session today; FTSE futures are up 0.6%, which would lift the London market away from last week’s one-month low.
Market sentiment has been rattled in recent weeks by concerns that central banks may not lower interest rates as swiftly as expected in 2025. Investors now expect just two US interest rate cuts next year, and two in the UK as well.
Global growth is also expected to slow next year, while the return of Donald Trump to the White House raises the risk of fresh tariffs on global trade. Trump’s election win sparked a rally in November, so perhaps Santa just came early this year.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, sets the scene:
It’s never too late to believe in Santa.
Investors on Monday were shrugging off the bad news of past week – especially the one that suggested that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut its rates only two times in 2025 due to a too resilient US economy. Yesterday’s data that showed that the US durable goods orders fell more than expected in November, the new home sales rebounded slightly less than expected and the consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped in December.
This bag of bad news helped tempering the latest hawkish shift in Fed expectations. As such, the buyers are out and buying. The S&P500 rebounded 0.73%, Nasdaq 100 rallied more than 1% and even the European Stoxx 600 eked out a small gain, as Novo Nordisk in Denmark jumped more than 5.5% as investors rushed in to buy a dip on bet that the weight loss drugs are here to stay.
The agenda
12.30pm GMT: UK stock market to close early for Christmas
1.55pm GMT: US Redbook index of US retail sales
3pm GMT: Richmond Federal Reserve
Updated
