Many of the issues that have plagued TCU during its three-game losing streak can simply be addressed with the team getting healthy.
The return of Mike Miles Jr., the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year and one of the best guards in the country, and of leading rebounder Eddie Lampkin Jr. will help improve many of the issues like TCU’s effectiveness in the half court and its ability to control the glass.
But there’s one glaring hole that the return of Miles might not fix and that’s at the 3-point line. The Horned Frogs were one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country last season and have gotten worse despite returning more experience than just about anybody in the country.
Yes, TCU allowed another massive run in the final five minutes of a close game in Saturday’s 72-68 loss to Baylor, but the biggest difference was at the 3-point line where the Bears had a plus-24 advantage as they knocked down 10 3-pointers compared to just two for the Horned Frogs.
TCU didn’t hit a single 3-pointer in the second half while Baylor got hot from distance at the perfect time. After battling back from a 56-46 hole to make it 56-52 with 6:15 to play, Baylor guard Adam Flagler hit three 3-pointers in a two-minute span to put the Bears ahead for good.
TCU finished the game just 2-of-10 from 3-point range, continuing an alarming trend that shows a lack of progression in that area.
Coach Jamie Dixon offered his own assessment of the shooting woes in the aftermath of Baylor’s comeback.
“I thought we had some good looks, so we can make some more,” Dixon said. “I don’t know if shooting more is the answer.”
He’s right in both regards as TCU regularly produces many great looks from behind the 3-point line. Whether it’s a result of transition or in the half court.
And if you’re not even hitting three out of every 10 3-point attempts, then you probably shouldn’t jack up more right? But there has to be a middle ground, there has to be some type of way for TCU to find more production without going overboard with more attempts.
“We know what our strengths are, I’d like to make more sure,” Dixon said. “I don’t think anybody’s saying we’re the greatest 3-point shooting team in the country, so you’d like to make the open ones at a higher rate. We did a lot of shooting this week and preparing for this game. We’re never going to be the team that makes more 3s than the rest of the league.”
Dixon hasn’t built a team that’s supposed to be a college imitation of peak Golden State. The Horned Frogs are built on their defense and ability to dominate the glass. TCU is more about toughness than flash and that can work in March.
It almost worked against Baylor without two starters, just look at the final game log. TCU shot a higher field goal percentage, made more shots, had more assists and outrebounded the Bears without Miles and Lampkin. Usually that’s the recipe for a victory, but the 3-point shot is the biggest equalizer in basketball.
It’s simple math, three is more than two and you can overcome many things going wrong if your team can find rhythm from 3-point range.
Finding that rhythm consistently has been difficult for TCU, especially without Miles.
“We have a couple guys that didn’t make any 3s before they got here with Micah (Peavy) and Emanuel (Miller),” Dixon said. “Now they’re making some and obviously our best 3-point shooter isn’t playing, that could probably help too. I hate to state the obvious, but that has something to do with it.”
Miles is one of the best scorers in the country and has made and attempted the second most 3-pointers on the team, but he is just a 31% shooter from long distance.
His return, which could come at Iowa State on Wednesday, will certainly make TCU a better team in the clutch as the Horned Frogs have struggled to close games in all four losses without him. But the shooting, may just continue to be the team’s Achilles heel in the NCAA Tournament.
TCU has all the ingredients to make a run all the way to the Final Four. A proven coach with a veteran team including a dynamic backcourt is one of them. The Horned Frogs don’t have a dominant big man, but have a versatile frontcourt with Lampkin, Xavier Cork and stretch forward JaKobe Coles. We also know TCU can defend at a very high level.
Those qualities make TCU a contender, but if TCU was just average from the 3-point line, wouldn’t the Horned Frogs be viewed as one of the favorites in March with a healthy Miles?
Probably so.
The Horned Frogs’ ceiling when fully healthy is extremely high, but the inability to hit timely long distance shots could be the reason TCU is unable to reach its potential.
