The Green Bay Packers are awaiting a decision on the football future of quarterback Aaron Rodgers once again, but time doesn’t stop in the NFL world. The new league year begins next month, and the Packers – who have to dig out of another salary cap hole – have big decisions to make on 18 different players with expiring or voiding contracts.
Not knowing Rodgers’ fate complicates the task, but we can still make predictions and assumptions about the soon-to-be free agents.
Will they stay or go? Here’s our prediction for 15 of the 18 free agents for the Packers in 2023:
S Adrian Amos
Type: Voiding
Amos turns 30 in April and is coming off back-to-back years of sharp regression, especially in coverage. After years of restructuring, his dead cap hit in 2023 will be almost $8 million when his deal officially voids. Do the Packers want to find a way to reduce his cap hit by bringing him back on a new deal before the old deal voids? Or is it time to rip off the Band-Aid? The guess here is Amos passes on a new deal, hits free agency and eventually departs.
Prediction: Go
WR Allen Lazard
Type: Unrestricted
Lazard will enter a free-agent market lacking top-end talent at wide receiver, opening the door for him to find a lucrative multi-year offer elsewhere. His value as an all-around player might be highest in Green Bay, but the Packers balked at paying market price for Marquez Valdes-Scantling and may do the same again with Lazard, who excels in a complementary role but may never be a go-to player. Lacking the buying power, the Packers lose Lazard in March.
Prediction: Go
OT Yosh Nijman
Type: Restricted
The Packers can give Nijman a second-round restricted tender and all but ensure he’s playing in Green Bay in 2023. He’s started games at left and right tackle over the last two seasons and may go into next season as the expected starter at right tackle. He’s young and developing at a premium position, so paying a little over $4 million to keep him is a no-brainer.
Prediction: Stay
DL Jarran Reed
Type: Voiding
Reed flashed disruptive moments but also struggled against the run for much of the season. Bringing him back at the right price makes sense because he’s a veteran who is always available and can bring some pass-rush value, but it wouldn’t be at all surprising if the Packers want to go younger and cheaper here. Letting Reed go opens up more snaps for Devonte Wyatt.
Prediction: Go
TE Robert Tonyan
Type: Voiding
Tough one here. Tonyan caught 11 touchdown passes in 2020, has decent speed and excellent hands, and knows the offense. He wasn’t a difference-maker in 2022, but he was also coming off a major knee injury. The Packers might believe he’s ready to get back to pre-injury levels, and the depth at tight end on the roster is thin. Another one-year deal makes sense as the Packers likely use the draft to start developing the long-term starter.
Prediction: Stay
DL Dean Lowry
Type: Voiding
Lowry has played a lot of snaps over the last handful of seasons for the Packers, but it’s time to get better up front on defense. As was the case with Jarran Reed, letting Lowry walk ensures a full-time role in 2023 for 2022 first-round pick Devonte Wyatt, who came on strong after Lowry went down with an injury to end last season.
Prediction: Go
S Rudy Ford
Type: Unrestricted
Ford was signed as a special teams ace, but he provided quality snaps as a starter at safety down the stretch. He’s probably not the type of player the Packers should bank on as a Week 1 starter in 2023, but he’s fast, physical and can do just about everything on special teams, giving him safe value.
Prediction: Stay
OLB Justin Hollins
Type: Unrestricted
The Packers claimed Hollins on waivers midway through the season, and the former Ram gave the defense quality snaps as a backup edge rusher. Hollins knows the defense well and is a terrific athlete. Bringing him back on a cheap deal would provide some much-needed stability at edge rusher while Rashan Gary gets healthy early in 2023.
Prediction: Stay
CB/KR Keisean Nixon
Type: Unrestricted
The Packers can’t let Nixon get out of Green Bay. It might cost a pretty penny after he produced an All-Pro season as a returner and an underrated season as a backup in the slot, but a new deal must get done. Nixon jolted Rich Bisaccia’s special teams to life and will go into 2023 as arguably the most dangerous kick returner in football.
Prediction: Stay
TE Tyler Davis
Type: Restricted
Davis isn’t a flashy or splashy player as a tight end, but he was one of Rich Bisaccia’s go-to players on special teams. The team needs depth at tight end, too. The Packers won’t offer a tender but should still get him back on a cheap deal.
Prediction: Stay
LB Krys Barnes
Type: Restricted
With De’Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker locked in, Barnes will probably desire a chance to compete for a starting job elsewhere. And the Packers have Isaiah McDuffie as a top backup, and both McDuffie and free agent Eric Wilson can play special teams. This looks like a natural separation point for the two sides.
Prediction: Go
OL Jake Hanson
Type: Exclusive rights
Easy one. Hanson improved to open his second season but went down with a significant injury in Week 1. Returning him on an exclusive rights deal is cheap.
Prediction: Stay
LB Eric Wilson
Type: Unrestricted
Wilson was one of the better special teamers in football over the final three months of the 2022 season. The Packers invested in the third phase and got results, so keeping Wilson should be a priority. With Campbell, Walker, McDuffie and Wilson, the inside linebacker position would be strong entering 2023.
Prediction: Stay
CB Corey Ballentine
Type: Unrestricted
Ballentine played a bunch on special teams down the stretch, but the Packers are deep at cornerback and will likely add one through the draft.
Prediction: Go
S Dallin Leavitt
Type: Unrestricted
He didn’t play a single snap on defense, but Leavitt was a special teams leader for Rich Bisaccia in 2022. This group doesn’t want to go backwards in 2023; retaining Leavitt would keep momentum moving forward.
Prediction: Stay
Aaron Rodgers free agents
These three veterans are labeled together for an obvious reason: If Aaron Rodgers is back, all three have an excellent chance of playing for the Packers in 2023. If Rodgers retires or is traded, it would be surprising if even one of the three returns. We’re not making guesses on Rodgers’ future, so no guesses for these three either.
TE Marcedes Lewis
WR Randall Cobb
K Mason Crosby
If unwanted by the Packers, it’s possible all three retire before the 2023 season.
