The Gorton and Denton by-election looks to be one of the more consequential contests of its kind since the Second World War. “Seismic” is how the triumphant Greens describe it. This was, after all, the first parliamentary by-election that they had ever won.
It is therefore proof that, at least in these types of seats, with a younger and more diverse population, a vote for the Greens is no longer a wasted vote.
Gorton and Denton, a constituency in Greater Manchester, is now the bridgehead the Greens have lacked in the north. During her campaign, the new MP, Hannah Spencer, was authentic and spoke to her voters in a language they could understand. She stood in sharp contrast to Reform’s strident candidate Matt Goodwin, unwisely hand-picked by Nigel Farage, who was divisive and never gave the impression he liked the place.
But more than that, it is an early win for the Green Party leader, Zack Polanski, who was only elected as leader last September. He may privately regret not running himself, given he was born in Salford (and retains the accent).
At any rate, Ms Spencer’s 41 per cent of the vote exceeded expectations in what was widely considered to be a tight three-cornered race. Ms Spencer deserves her success. The passion she expressed in her victory speech at the count suggests she will make a fine constituency member.
She also deserves considerable thanks for defeating the Farageistes. She has proved that Reform UK is far from invincible – the “woke” Greens in fact trounced Nigel Farage’s self-styled patriots, just as Plaid Cymru did in Caerphilly in October. After the recent influx of deadbeat Tories and a “mixed” record in local government, Reform UK seems to be losing some momentum.
Not the Greens, however. Like it or not, the party is now becoming a more established force in British politics, and it will be interesting to see if this landmark success boosts its national poll ratings.
But they cannot, at least not yet, be considered a serious party of power, nor Mr Polanski the next prime minister. The electoral coalition they have constructed is a somewhat uneasy one. They seem to attract natural but disaffected moderate ex-Conservatives in seats such as Hereford, combined with a progressive, socialist and student vote in the cities, plus more traditional environmentalists, and, depending on local circumstances, many Muslims voters who feel taken for granted by Labour and who are appalled by the tragic events in Gaza.
The Green Party does not yet suffer from the inherent tendency to schism that Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party and its loose collection of “Independent” MPs suffer from. But the scope for division is clearly there on social and cultural issues – as is the risk of a slide into antisemitism. The Greens’ electoral coalition of interests doesn’t suit every seat, and if they end up fighting their Corbyn-Sultana/Independent group rivals for local and parliamentary seats, they will soon retreat to the fringes.
Nor has Mr Polanski’s team yet constructed a programme for government. There is much sneering and misinformation from its opponents about its liberal approach to drugs, plans to leave Nato, its economic policies and “sectarianism”, but it is fair to say that they will need to be more realistic and clearly practicable before the voters will treat the Green Party as anything more than a protest vote and, in some places, simply a convenient vehicle to stop Reform.
As is obvious, a general election is about choosing a government and not a protest or an advocate for a constituency, however brilliant. Much the same, indeed, can be said for Mr Farage, who’d be an unmitigated disaster in No 10, a realisation that grows with every fresh tinpot policy launch and predictable “shock defection”.
The prime minister is undoubtedly beleaguered, and it is no great surprise that the leadership chatter has cranked up again after a dismal night. Once again, Sir Keir Starmer is being confronted with the challenge of fighting a perpetual electoral war on two fronts.
He has to resist insurgent Greens to the left, in London and the larger cities; and Reform UK on his right flank, in towns and suburbs across much of the north and east of England, as well as the SNP and Plaid. Yet the worst thing his party could do now is to play the parlour game of where they should be “positioning” themselves, tacking this way or that, and probably with a new leader.
There is no evidence that any of the candidates would transform Labour’s poll ratings or suddenly trigger an economic boom. Such delusions and distractions will only result in Labour spiralling further into ideological confusion in ever-decreasing circles. The answer to Labour’s problems is, and has been almost since its first day back in office, “delivery, delivery, delivery” – on everything from the public finances to housing to immigration.
None of that needs to be ideological. It is from such pragmatic politics and tangible achievements on the cost of living and the public services that a compelling narrative can be constructed.
On that basis, Reform and the Greens can be pushed back as impractical extremists, and the government will rebuild its authority and electoral base. The Gorton and Denton by-election proved that much has changed in the political landscape, but not the need for Labour to stay united and, as Sir Keir puts it, “laser-focused” on governing.
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