This Green Bay Packers offense has mustered just 24 total points in the last two games and now faces its greatest challenge of the season up to this point as they take on a stingy Buffalo Bills defense.
While the last two games may have been the low points for the Packers offensively, moving the ball and putting points on the board has been a struggle all season long. Green Bay enters Week 8 ranked 23rd in points per game and 20th in total yards.
The Bills, meanwhile, boast arguably the best defense in the NFL. Overall, they rank first by DVOA and have allowed a measly 13.5 points per game and just 281.5 yards per game – which again ranks first.
From the front to the back of this unit, there doesn’t seem to be a weakness on this Bills defense. As Matt LaFleur would tell reporters on Wednesday, they play hard, physical, and really well together.
“This defense plays so well together,” said LaFleur. “Very fast, very physical. I think they do really a great job in all three levels at disguising. I don’t think it’s overly complicated, and I mean that in a complementary way, they just play their schemes at an incredibly high level, and they’re one of the better, if not the best team in the league at reacting and running to the ball, and maintaining leverage and gang tackling. Very few missed tackles, that’s the one thing that jumps out on tape. And they just play extremely hard, and I always think that’s the starting point for a great defense, and they do all of that.”
As of now, we do not know what the Green Bay offensive line configuration will look like, given the unknown surrounding David Bakhtiari’s status. But with the starting five they used against Washington, this Packers’ offense felt a bit limited with their play calling as they relied heavily on the quick passing game, tight end chips, and a lack of play-action as a way to provide the offensive line with some assistance. If we see this group again, I would anticipate a similar approach.
If Bakhtiari is available, however, the most likely combination up front would be the Packers keeping Elgton Jenkins at left guard and Jon Runyan at right guard, with Yosh Nijman moving to right tackle. Jenkins and Bakhtiari could form a formidable left side, but Runyan and Nijman have very little experience on the right.
Having this grouping along the offensive line will hopefully force Buffalo to not be so comfortable rushing just four as Washington did. Last week we saw the Commanders primarily rush only four defenders, which allowed them to drop seven into coverage regularly, muddying things up in the passing game for Green Bay.
Any sort of potential success for this offense begins with the play up front, along with LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers having trust in them.
Led by Von Miller, the Buffalo defensive front has recorded the sixth most pressures this season, and they do so with little blitzing. Individually, Miller ranks tied for 12th in pressures among edge rushers, with Gregory Rousseau coming in at 25th, according to PFF. The Bills also have two interior defenders in Da’Quan Jones and Jordan Phillips, who rank in the top-30 in individual pressures.
Against the run, you guessed it, the Bills have been the best, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry. When this Green Bay offense becomes one-dimensional, things get ugly quickly as the pass rush is able to pin their ears back.
The Packers have also been quick to give up on the run game when yards are hard to come by. It may not be pretty at times, but being consistent with running the ball will be a must for the Packers, even if the results aren’t all that great at times. This can help control the clock, allow the offensive line to be the aggressor, and open up the playbook a bit.
Lastly, the Bills have generated 13 takeaways this season, the second-most in the NFL, with 10 coming via an interception. On the other hand, Green Bay has yet to win the turnover battle in a game and has a differential of minus-four, which is near the bottom of the rankings.
For an offense that is sputtering, winning the turnover battle feels like a must if Green Bay is going to have any chance of winning, as it provides the offense with additional opportunities to score and potentially shorter fields to work with º not to mention that it would keep Josh Allen and the explosive Bills’ offense off the field.
The Packers enter Sunday’s contest as 10.5-point underdogs, and it’s hard to argue against that figure. One team is at home and has arguably the best defense in football, while the other has an offense that has had issues even picking up a first down. Any sort of turnaround by Green Bay will require them to clean up and do the little things correctly, something that has given them big issues this season.
