A significant change in the weather pattern is about to unfold over large areas of the United States as an extended warm spell develops more than two weeks after the official start of spring. In some areas, it could become downright hot, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
Temperatures will reach levels that have not been experienced since last fall for many areas in the central and eastern U.S., allowing lawns to turn greener and flowers to continue to bloom.
The warmup will not come without potential consequences, as it will trigger the annual spring thaw in the north-central U.S., generate an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and kickstart the allergy season across more of the country.
“The warmup will take place across the northern Plains, the Midwest and the Northeast, as an expansive dome of high pressure settles in place,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said. “The pattern change will likely yield many consecutive days of dry and mild conditions for millions.”
The first to experience the warmup will be those in the northern Plains and Midwest. Temperatures that had been no higher than the 30s, 40s or 50s Fahrenheit as of late will zoom into the 60s, 70s and 80s F over the weekend and into next week. There have been some previews of warmer weather across the nation’s midsection in recent weeks, but the impending warm surge will take hold for a more extended period.
In Minneapolis, the mercury has topped 50 F only one day so far this year, and that was on April 2, the latest first occurrence of a 50-degree temperature there since 2001 when the temperature did not hit the benchmark until April 4. Typically, the first 50-degree temperature reading of the year in Minneapolis takes place during the first half of March. From Saturday through all of next week, high temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s.
Chicago has had tastes of spring warmth since late March, and the mercury there reached the 60s and 70s a few times over the last week. However, for the first time this year, the 80-degree mark will be in play as a high temperature for several days later next week.
Perhaps no one will welcome the warmth more than those who live in the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, a region sometimes referred to as the nation’s icebox. In Fargo, North Dakota, and International Falls, Minnesota, the temperature hasn’t crested above the 40s since early November. However, by next week, temperatures are forecast to venture into the 60s on multiple days in both cities.
The Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast will be the next to enjoy the sustained warmth starting on Easter Sunday. These areas of the country have experienced brief, but record-challenging warmups as of late. AccuWeather forecasters say the next round of warm weather will last longer and be accompanied by mainly dry conditions.
“Following a brief cooldown to end the week, the warmth will then lock in for many from the Midwest to the Northeast through next week,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva.
Temperatures will be in the 70s and even 80s for days on end in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and New York, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
As is often the case early in the spring, locales that sit along the coast or near major bodies of colder water, such as the Great Lakes, will be at the mercy of the wind direction. Onshore winds can lead to big contrasts in temperature over a small distance.
“After a prolonged and much-needed break, the threat of severe weather will return to the Plains for the end of next week, as a storm emerges from the West,” explained DaSilva.
While the warmth will likely be welcomed by people eager to put cold and chilly weather behind them, it will include some hazards.
For the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, where several feet of snow remains on the ground after a stormy winter, a quick warmup will cause the snowpack to melt rapidly.
“Across the Red River of the North, the liquid equivalent of the snowpack varies between 2 and 8 inches over much of the basin,” said Buckingham. “With temperatures warming into the 60s and 70s, snowpack will quickly melt away, raising the threat for flooding significantly.”
In some parts of the Upper Midwest, the liquid equivalent of the snowpack is as high as 20 inches. Melting that snowpack over a period of a few days or a week would be equivalent to a multiday rainstorm.
This year’s high snow pack and the amount of water locked in it has many local National Weather Service forecast offices in the Midwest forecasting a “well above-normal” spring flood risk for the Mississippi River later this spring. This includes areas far downstream where little or no snow fell all winter.
Warmer conditions will also allow leaves, flowers and vegetation to emerge and bloom in the coming days and weeks across more of the country. The National Phenology Network, a group that maps the “arrival of spring” by tracking the progress of the initial blooms and the emergence of leaves on trees, says that it has already occurred from the central Plains to the mid-Atlantic. In many areas, this has occurred weeks ahead of schedule.
Over the next week, more of the Plains, Midwest and Northeast will experience that blooming, which will unleash a torrent of pollen and worsen allergies for millions. The source of the pollen will first come from trees, with mold, grass and ragweed to follow over the coming months. Dust and dander, which can inflame allergies even in the winter, will remain on the high side for many until humidity levels become more consistently elevated.
The 2023 AccuWeather U.S. spring allergy forecast said that tree pollen would peak in April over much of this area, and it appears that will indeed be the case over the next week or two.
Produced in association with AccuWeather
