The ACT is underprepared to combat the increased risk bushfires will present as a result of climate change and the growing urban edge needs better planning and protection, a report released to coincide with the 20-year anniversary of Canberra's worst fires has found.
An increase in bushfire management planning proportionate to the growing threat of a warmer, drier Canberra is required to avoid another disaster such as that experienced in 2003, the ACT Multi-Hazard Advisory Council has cautioned.
The council, made up of experts in disaster and fire management, said it prepared the report given the ongoing bushfire threat to an expanding ACT, acknowledging significant improvements had been made in preparedness over the last 20 years.
Among its 23 recommendations, the council said the ACT government should increase the number of trained firefighting teams close to bushland areas, giving priority to the new suburbs on the western and northern edges of Canberra.
The report has warned there is currently no mechanism in place to ensure resources available for bushfire protection increased proportionally to the growth of the rural-urban interface.
"As a result, the resources being provided are spread thinner and thinner resulting in an ever-decreasing standard of protection being provided," the report found.
"This problem is further exacerbated by increases in bushfire risk due to climate change."
The council has urged the ACT government to develop a five-year plan for location-specific mitigation and response planning, warning its learning from past bushfires had been neither sufficient nor fully leveraged.
Fire experts should be commissioned to conduct an independent analysis of fire management programs since 2003 to inform future policy and planning, it recommended.
"Increased capability is needed to mitigate and respond to the increased frequency, duration and severity of bushfire," the council said.
"Agencies and volunteers need to be properly resourced to reach agreed bushfire-risk mitigation, suppression and recovery objectives."
Next Wednesday will mark 20 years since the 2003 Canberra bushfires swept through the western suburbs of Canberra, killing four people and destroying 488 homes.
Subsequent inquiries found significant shortcomings regarding both mitigation and response contributed to 70 per cent of the ACT burning. That included inadequate management of public forest fuel loads, ineffective "first attack" tactics, poor cross-border communication and inadequate warning to residents.
The ACT Bushfire Council was established to monitor the implementation of recommendations from the various inquiries, annually review the state of ACT bushfire risk management and suggest improvements to the Minister for Emergency Services.
In December 2021, the ACT government replaced the ACT Bushfire Council with the ACT Multi-Hazard Advisory Council, which provides advice to the Minister for Emergency Services about matters relating to natural hazards, including bushfires.
The recommendations released this week built on advice provided in the previous annual report prepared by the former ACT Bushfire Council and released in 2021, which outlined several of the same issues.
Investment in the ACT road network, as well as advanced technology would improve response and forecasting, the report found.
The council also recommended the Environment Directorate prioritise bushfire considerations in planning legislation and processes, with reference to the current exploration of western edge expansion.
Credible bushfire experts were recommended to prepare the bushfire risk assessments to ensure protection becomes a primary consideration throughout the planning and development of urban lands.
Minister for Planning Mick Gentleman said development of the greenfield sites identified on the western edge were necessary if the ACT government was to meet its 70 per cent infill target.
"Due diligence has been done in many of them and more due diligence is being done for future suburbs on the western side," Mr Gentleman said.
"That's why we're doing that constructing."
The council noted the ACT government had undertaken a strategic climate change risk assessment for the territory, however, it pointed out there appeared to be few practical actions implemented to combat the effects of climate change on bushfire risk.
"It largely focuses on threats to government assets and services," the report found.
"We know that climate change is already causing longer, more frequent and more severe periods of bushfire danger. The bushfire season is starting earlier, lasting longer and creating long campaigns of bushfire management rather than single significant bushfires. This provides sufficient evidence for the need for action, to ensure that the ACT is better prepared to deal with this increasing risk."
How immediate is the risk?
Rohan Scott, chief officer at ACT Rural Fire Service, said mitigation work was crucial while the ACT was in this watch and wait period, as La Nina comes to an end and the wet weather subsides.
Increased grass growth and wet grounds that prevent burn-off crews from getting vehicles into areas of concern has been one of the dangerous outcome from three years of higher-than-average rainfall.
Mr Scott said historical weather cycles indicated the country was now moving into a period of drought.
"We've got a lot of unburned land, particularly to the west, which hasn't really burned since '03," he said.
Mr Scott said it was possible grass would dry out by as early as next month, meaning the ACT could be headed for a bad grass fire season as early as next summer.
He said recent heavy rain had likely brought the ACT another two weeks before the grass "cured".
It was more likely major forest fires were a risk from next year or the year after, as heavy fuel dried out across the bush capital, Mr Scott said.
"We've got to look at that changing climate. Those cycles are getting shorter and those periods of rain are actually increasing our fuel loads," he said.
"The next significant fire, whether it's in the ACT or into NSW, it's not a matter of if, but when."
The ACT government will commemorate the 2003 Canberra bushfires with an event at the Stromlo Forest Park Bushfire Memorial at 6.30pm on Wednesday, January 18. This event will be open to the public.
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