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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Christmas party cancellations ‘near Omicron level’ as UK rail strikes loom – as it happened

Festive elves' hats rest on beer pumps on the bar Hatter pub and hotel, operated by Fuller's, in London.
Festive elves' hats rest on beer pumps on the bar Hatter pub and hotel, operated by Fuller's, in London. Photograph: Daniel Leal/AFP/Getty Images

Afternoon summary

Time to wrap up, here are today’s main stories:

Trafigura’s shareholders and top traders to share $1.7bn in payouts

The commodities trading firm Trafigura is to hand more than $1.7bn to its top traders and shareholders after the energy crisis, fuelled by the war in Ukraine, led to a surge in profits.

Trafigura, one of the world’s largest specialist commodity traders, posted a record $7bn net profit in its last financial year, more than the previous four years combined after making gains from the market volatility caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Its chief financial officer, Christophe Salmon, hailed an “exceptionally strong year”, as profits more than doubled and revenues grew to $318.5bn in the year to 30 September, up from $231.3bn a year earlier.

The $1.71bn payout to its 1,100 shareholders, including top employees, equates to about $1.56m a head if shared equally. That’s an increase of about 35% compared with 2021’s dividend of $1.12bn to around 1,000 top traders and investors.

US investment bank Wells Fargo has predicted global growth will slow next year, warning that a US recession can’t be ruled out.

It expects the global economy to grow at 1.7% in 2023, weaker than a 2.4% rise estimated for the current year, it said in a client note on Thursday.

Wells Fargo sees the U.S. economy slipping into a “modest” recession beginning in mid-2023 and expects it to end the year with annual growth of 0.2%, much slower than a 2% rise estimated for 2022.

Hotels, restaurants and pubs expect more than a third of their bookings to be cancelled this month as the threat of rail strikes during the peak Christmas party period hits trade, my colleague Sarah Butler reports.

UKHospitality, a trade body, said it expected the strikes to cost businesses about £1.5bn in lost sales and other knock-on effects, with a lack of a breakthrough deal pushing up expected cancellations to between 35% and 40% from between 20% and 30% at present.

The effect of the strikes will pile additional pressure on to businesses already struggling with lacklustre bookings, labour shortages and increased costs – from energy bills and payroll to the price of ingredients.

Households are also reining in spending on non-essentials, such as meals out and trips to the pub, as they deal with rising living costs.

Research from Barclaycard this week found that 45% of the public are planning to scale back on festive parties and socialising this year because of financial pressures.

UK restaurants are already going bust at a faster rate than during the Covid crisis, with closures in the sector up by 60% over 2021-22 to 1,567, compared with 984 during 2020-21, according to the advisory firm Mazars. It found 453 had gone out of business over the past three months, up from 395 in the previous quarter.

Closures announced include the Michelin starred Peel’s in Solihull, the Walthamstow, east London, outpost of pie and mash shop L Manze after 36 years and celebrity chef Michael Caines’ Harbourside Refuge in Porthleven, Cornwall.

Here’s the full story:

The Wall St entrance to the NYSE is seen in New York

Wall Street has opened higher, following a recent selloff sparked by concerns that rising interest rates could push the US into recession.

The S&P 500 stock index has gained 13.8 points, or 0.35%, to 3,947.79 at the opening bell, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite is up 0.5%.

US oil supermajor ExxonMobil is expanding its share buyback plan, as it outlines a new corporate plan today.

EzzonMobil now plans to spend $50bn on buying stock back from shareholders through to 2024, including $15bn in 2022.

The company is also committing $17bn for lower-emission initiatives through 2027; an increase of nearly 15%.

And it expect earnings and cash flow growth to double by 2027, compared to 2019.

Exxon’s chairman and CEO, Darren Woods, claims the company can help tackle greenhouse gas emissions:

“We view our success as an ‘and’ equation, one in which we can produce the energy and products society needs – and – be a leader in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from our own operations and also those from other companies.

The corporate plan we’re laying out today reflects that view, and the results we’ve seen to date demonstrate that we’re on the right course.”

Exxon has reported record earnings this year, as the jump in energy prices following the Ukraine war lifted oil company profits.

These profits prompted US president Joe Biden to accuse oil companies of “war profiteering” this autumn,

The number of Americans filing new unemployment claims has inched up.

There were 230,000 ‘initial claims’ filed last week, an increase of 4,000 on the previous week.

That’s still a low figure in historic terms, but the increase could suggest a slight weakening in the economy.

Cancellations and punctuality for train companies operating in northern England including Avanti West Coast worsened sharply this summer, despite them scheduling far fewer train services, statistics from the rail regulator reveal.

A review of passenger train operators’ performance by the Office of Rail and Road showed that TransPennine Express and Northern both culled more than 15% of their timetable from the previous summer, far more than any other operators in the UK.

Meanwhile Avanti, which connects the capital with major cities in the West Midlands, north-west England and Scotland, planned 8% fewer trains and then cancelled 12% of services on the day, and more than 60% of its surviving trains failed to arrive on time.

Here’s the full story:

Package holiday demand dips as UK cost of living crisis hits budgets

Holiday bookings for three-star destinations are starting to drop as households hit by the cost of living crisis cut back amid surging bills, according to the travel company On the Beach.

The online travel retailer said that while premium bookings by customers with deeper pockets were proving “resilient”, holidaymakers who traditionally would book cheaper trips had been forced to rein in their spending.

“Those that are booking holidays at a higher price point – sort of £600-800 per person and more – are proving more resilient than those that would be booking holidays for £300-500 and less. So that tends to be the difference in three-star and five-star [destinations],” said On the Beach’s chief executive, Simon Cooper.

He said:

“So those would be – potentially – the demographics that would be more squeezed from cost of living pressures, and who potentially have lower savings.”

Gas prices have risen today, as Europe shivers under a bout of cold weather.

The wholesale day-ahead UK gas price has risen by 2% to 390p per therm, the highest level since mid-September.

European gas prices were also higher, in choppy trading, as thermometers across the region fell towards 0 degrees C.

UK companies slowed their hiring growth last month, and tightened pay increases too, as recession worries mounted.

The latest UK Report on Jobs from KPMG and REC (the Recruitment & Employment Confederation) found a fall in demand for permanent staff in November, as employers turning to temporary workers to fill jobs.

Pay pressures eased slightly, while there was the softest increase in vacancies for 21 months.

Neil Carberry, Chief Executive of the REC, explains:

“This month’s data emphasises that while employers are moderately more cautious in the face of economic uncertainty, this is not yet a major slowdown in hiring. While permanent recruitment activity has dropped from the very high levels of earlier in the year, the pace of that drop has tempered this month.

“In contrast, temporary hiring has accelerated again in the run-up to Christmas. There are clearly some seasonal factors at work here, with retail and healthcare recruitment leading the way. But there may also be some switching to temporary going on, as firms maintain flexibility ahead of next year.

Speaking of central banks…. Ukraine’s National Bank has decided to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 25%.

The NBU left borrowing costs on hold, noting that consumer price inflation had risen to 26.6% year-on-year.

It warned that the key risks to Ukraine’s economy are an extended full-scale war by Russia and “escalating terrorist attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure”, such as the energy network which has come under attack in recent weeks.

The NBU says:

Russia has scaled up its terrorist attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The risk of continued terrorist attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure persists.

The NBU’s October macroeconomic forecast contained assumptions that power transmitting and generating facilities will be temporarily unavailable in winter. However, the scale and duration of blackouts could be greater than expected. This could dampen economic activity and increase inflationary pressures.

City economists expect the Bank of England to hike its benchmark interest rates by another half a percentage point next week, despite fears that Britain is in recession.

The BoE is forecast to lift Bank Rate from 3% to 3.5%, which would be the highest since the financial crisis in 2008, as it tries to beat inflation.

A poll of 54 economists by Reuters found that most expect a 50 basis point increase, with only two expecting a larger 75bp hike.

Katrin Loehken, UK economist at asset manager DWS, predicts the Bank’s policymakers will be split, 12 months after they started to raise interest rates.

Exactly one year after initiating the hiking cycle, the task the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) faces has not become easier. At currently 11.1% Y/Y, the inflation rate is higher than in the euro area or the U.S. and price pressures are broadly spread across all categories of the consumer basket. The risk of a wage-price spiral is still palpable.

This is also reflected in the large number of strikes: employees do not want to settle for wage increases below the inflation rate. At the same time the UK already finds itself in recession, as falling real incomes depress domestic demand and previous hikes in key interest rates feed into the economy. The housing market is cooling rapidly and inflation expectations appear to have at least stabilised.

Thus, while in principle all MPC members are committed to fighting inflation, opinions differ as to how much tightening is still needed. Some on the MPC now worry that too many or too strong rate hikes may unnecessarily deepen the recession, especially since the earlier tightening is certainly slowing down the economy. Others, however, are focusing more on the risk that inflation expectations will become de-anchored.

For the December meeting we expect to see a variety of opinions and a split vote on the degree of tightening.

A vote to raise the benchmark Bank Rate by 50bps seems the likely outcome, taking it to 3.50%.

Updated

UK home seretary Suella Braverman has warned that planned strikes by border force workers at major airports including Heathrow and Gatwick over the Christmas period may cause delays.

The PCS union annonced yesterday that UK Border Force staff are to strike over the busy festive holidays at airports across the country in a dispute over pay and conditions.

Passport checks at Heathrow, Gatwick, Manchester, Glasgow, Cardiff and Birmingham airports will be among those disrupted by the disrution, scheduled from 23 December to Boxing Day inclusive, and from 28 December to New Year’s Eve.

Braverman said people should think carefully about their plans to fly abroad in the coming weeks.

“They may well be delayed on arrivals,” she told reporters, adding that:

“Ultimately, security at the border is my number one, non-negotiable priority.”

The PCS union are urging the government to come forward with a new deal for its members after ministers refused to increase a 2% pay offer.

Britain is facing a winter of strikes, as industrial action on the railways spreads to the health service and other key sectors of the economy, our economics correspondent Richard Partington writes.

Such is the wave of discontent that more than 1m working days could be lost to disputes in December, the most since 1989, during Margaret Thatcher’s final years in power.

With inflation at the highest rate in 41 years amid the cost of living crisis, it’s not difficult to see why workers are pushing for better pay. Coming after the worst decade for average wage growth since the Napoleonic wars, including deep real-terms pay cuts for many in the public sector, it’s even less surprising still.

It is against this backdrop that Rishi Sunak’s government is looking at options for cracking down on striking workers. However, it’s a high-risk strategy that could come to define the prime minister’s approach to working people, at a time when there is generally widespread public support for those on strike

Young shoppers help Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group defy UK retail gloom

Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group defied retail gloom in its first half as younger shoppers more shielded from the cost of living crisis continued to spend, including at its fast-growing designer chain Flannels, our retail correspondent Sarah Butler reports.

The group, which owns several chains including Sports Direct and House of Fraser, said younger people, which make up a large proportion of the group’s shoppers, were still prepared to spend on clothes as they were more protected from rising energy bills, mortgage rates and even food costs.

Chris Wootton, Frasers’ finance director, says:

“Employment numbers are still high and more people are living at home with their parents for longer and spending more of their take-home pay on going out and clothes,”

Frasers, which also includes leisurewear brand Jack Wills and Evans Cycles, said pre-tax profits rose 53% to £284.6m in the six months to 23 October on sales that were up almost 13% to £2.6bn, driven by acquisitions and the expansion of the Flannels chain. Six more Flannels stores are planned next year.

Back in the City, shares in retail group Frasers are now down around 9.5% after its results this morning.

Frasers’ warning that the “macroeconomic environment is clearly challenging” (see opening post) may have disappointed investors, even though it’s sticking with its profit forecasts.

Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says that Frasers isn’t immune to the impact of the economic downturn.

‘’The update from Frasers Group shows there are still deep pockets of resilience in the fashion retail sector, as shoppers’ spending holds up, particularly on ranges viewed as offering value. But despite its strong record the company is still unlikely to be immune to the recessionary headwinds whipping up.

It scored a 53% rise in first half pre-tax profits, and hasn’t changed its full year forecast. The company wins kudos for bucking the trends which have been witnessed since the pandemic began. While other department store chains have disappeared, House of Fraser Stores continue to be the lynchpin of shopping centres while Sports Direct shops remain a pull on the high street, helped by the engine of e-commerce sales. The elevation strategy being pursued by Mike Ashley’s successor as CEO, Michael Murray is clearly paying off with a razor-sharp focus on improving partnerships with leading brands like Nike.

However, the company admits that challenges lie ahead and so it will be hard to predict what 2023 will bring. This note of uncertainty knocked its share price in early trade this morning.

Updated

The cost-of-living crisis is eating into their Christmas finances, with many households cutting back on spending this year, a survey from tax, audit and consulting firm RSM UK has found.

The poll, taken a week after Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement at 17th November, found that many families were cutting back as they struggled with higher energy bills.

Here’s the details:

  • Average spend for Christmas down from £554 last year to £463 this year – 16% drop

  • 50% plan to cut back spending on socialising this Christmas

  • Toys, presents and stocking fillers take a hit as consumers plan to cut their spend

  • 37% have no money left to spend after paying for food, energy and household bills at the end of the month

  • Retail and leisure/hospitality sectors face a ‘grim’ start to 2023: job losses and store closures likely to rise

Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK, said Christmas looks likely to be a more subdued affair this year, which could leave retailers struggling to shift stock:

‘Consumers’ finances are taking a hit and they have little choice but to tighten their belts.

Our survey showed that nearly every category across retail would be impacted by dwindling discretionary spend this Christmas which is bad news following mixed results during Black Friday.

Updated

The ONS also reports that British consumer spending on credit and debit cards picked up in cash terms in early December, in line with usual seasonal trends.

UK credit and debit card purchases increased by 13 percentage points week-on-week, while overall retail footfall was 5% higher than the previous week.

The ONS says:

Revolut debit card transaction data showed increased spending in all reported sectors in the week to 4 December 2022, except “retail”, which saw a 1-percentage-point decrease. The “entertainment” sector saw the biggest increase of 13 percentage points but remained the only sector not to return to its pre-coronavirus baseline levels.

Updated

More than a quarter (29%) of UK businesses expect turnover to decrease in January 2023, the latest data from the Office for National Statistics shows.

The ONS also reports that online job advert levels were flat last week, leaving them 18% lower than the peak level in February 2022.

Of the 28 job categories, 16 showed a decrease in the number of adverts, while 10 increased and two remained unchanged. The largest decrease was in the “Charity and voluntary” category, which fell by 5% and was 21% below its level in the equivalent week of 2021.

Sacha Lord, night time economy adviser for Greater Manchester, warns that customers not showing up for bookings can end businesses:

The Christmas season is crucial for hospitality firms – money made during the party season keeps some pubs and restaurants afloat during the quiet times in January.

Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the British Beer and Pub Association, says it’s becoming “increasingly difficult” to see how many businesses would make it through the quieter winter months until spring.

She warned:

“People aren’t confident they’ll be able to travel next week and so it’s almost too late now to save the festive season from ruin for pubs.

Christmas party cancellations 'near Omicron level amid UK strikes'

Pubs and restaurants have suffered a collapse in Christmas party bookings due to next week’s UK rail strikes, Bloomberg reports.

Industry chiefs suggest the plunge is as bad as last year when cases of the Omicron variant of Covid-19 were surging, which hit hospitality firms in the run up to last Christmas.

Kate Nicholls, chief executive officer of the trade body UKHospitality, said businesses were reporting cancellation rates of as much as 30%, which could blow a £1.5 billion ($1.8 billion) black hole in revenues.

The RMT union is holding strikes on 13-14 December [next Tuesday and Wednesday] and 16-17 December [Friday and Saturday], and from 6pm on Christmas Eve until 7am on 27 December. Network Rail has warned passengers ‘only travel if necessary’ on those dates.

“We’re getting into omicron territory,” Nicholls told Bloomberg, adding:.

“A lot of people are saying it’s too difficult to come in, and if you’re writing off next week, you might as well write off the week after. So it’s going to be an early Christmas shutdown.”

Here’s the full story.

The hospitality sector is already reeling from surging energy costs, staff shortages and falling bookings, leading UK restaurants to go bust at a faster rate than during the Covid crisis.

Updated

Investment banking industry faces uncertainty 'for some time'

UK boutique investment bank Numis has been hit by the slowdown in City, as rising interest rates hit the markets.

Numis has reported a 71.9% drop in pre-tax profits, to £20.9m from £74.2m, in the year to 30th September. Revenues were down by a third.

It told shareholders that the capital markets outlook “remains challenging”, with volumes of new deals “subdued” as the market digests the impact of sustained inflation and higher interest rates.

Numis warns that conditions may not pick up for a while:

Our experience suggests that market uncertainty and macro-economic conditions are likely to affect the investment banking industry for some time.

Packaging firm DS Smith has also revealed it loaned its pension scheme £100m to help it through the market chaos following the mini-budget, which rocked the pensions industry.

It told shareholders this morning that:

In response to the market turmoil following the UK “mini- budget” in September 2022, the Group made funding support of up to £100 million to the main UK defined benefit pension scheme.

This took the form initially of a cash advance in anticipation of potential margin calls and latterly a liquidity facility.

The cash advance was fully repaid within days of being made and as at 31 October 2022 the liquidity facility remained in place but was undrawn.

The surge in government borrowing costs (measured as the yield on UK gilts) forced some pension funds to sell some of their assets in a fire sale to meet margin calls, before the Bank of England stepped in:

BT’s £47bn pension scheme has warned it may need to call on the telecommunications group for more cash “support” as it tightens its use of leveraged investment strategies, the Financial Times reports here.

Shares in Frasers have dropped 3.9% in early trading, as investors digest its warning about the macroeconomic challenges it face.

Here’s Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor, on today’s results from Frasers.

Frasers reported first half adjusted profit before tax of £267.1 million up from £192.4 million year-on-year. Revenue also increased to £2.63 billion up from £2.34 billion last year. Despite warning about the challenging macroeconomic environment, the retailer kept its full-year guidance unchanged.

Over the summer, the retailer reported record-breaking full-year results sending shares soaring thanks to the reopening of its stores post pandemic and the release of pent-up demand after covid.

Although Frasers Group’s shares had a difficult first half of the year amid the market volatility, since mid-October when investor risk appetite returned, shares have staged an impressive surge of around 50% off the intraday lows. The well-documented pressures on the consumer with the cost-of-living crisis squeezing household budgets appear to be dividing the retail sector into winners or losers with the owner of Sports Direct managing to land itself a position in the winning category thanks to its intelligent strategy to partner up with strong brands.”

Updated

Retail analyst Nick Bubb says the most eye-catching news from Frasers today is its move to Coventry:

Well, it’s unclear what’s going to happen to the huge Sports Direct warehouse and office at Shirebrook in the North Midlands, but, as rumoured, Frasers has announced that it is to build a huge new distribution complex at Coventry, at an eye-catching cost of £600m…

Updated

Frasers has also announced it plans to spend £600m on a new distribution centre and offices in Coventry, where it has also recently bought the Coventry Building Society Arena.

It tells shareholders:

Looking further forward to support our continued growth and ambition, we are intending on investing approx. £600m in a new distribution centre and offices in Coventry over the next ten years subject to planning, and we recently purchased the site for this exciting development for Frasers and the Coventry area.

As part of this strategy we have also purchased the CBS Arena in the city which strengthens our investment in the area and supports our future plans for the region.

Introduction: Frasers sticking with forecasts after profits jump

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

UK retail group Frasers and packaging company DS Smith are both warning today that the macro-economic outlook is ‘challenging’, as they update the City with their latest financial results.

Frasers, formerly Sports Direct, has reported a 53% jump in pre-tax profits in the 26 weeks to 23 October 2022, up to £284.6m from £186m.

Frasers has been pushing an “Elevation Strategy” under new CEO Michael Murray, the son-in-law of founder Mike Ashley.

A House of Fraser store in Manchester.
A House of Fraser store in Manchester. Photograph: Phil Noble/Reuters

Chairman David Daly says today this strategy is working, telling shareholders that:

We have delivered a strong performance during the period, despite the challenging backdrop of heightened economic uncertainty in the UK, soaring energy costs, rapidly rising inflation, a widespread cost of living crisis and continued geopolitical instability.

Whilst post pandemic issues with the global supply chain remain, there are signs that these are beginning to ease.

Frasers, whose brands also include House of Fraser, Jack Wills and Evans Cycles, is sticking with its profit guidance, Daly adds:

Whilst the macroeconomic environment is clearly challenging and the backdrop for the coming year is hard to predict with any certainty, we have strong strategic and trading momentum behind us and we remain confident in our guidance for adjusted PBT [pre-tax profits] of between £450m to £500m for this financial year.

DS Smith, which makes corrugated packaging solutions (cardboard boxes) and runs recycling services, has also grown its earnings in the first half of the financial year.

DS Smith’s pre-tax profits jumped 80% in the six months to the end of October.

CEO Miles Roberts cautions that the macro-economic outlook for the rest of the financial year remains challenging. But, DS Smith have lifted its forecasts, predicting that its performance this year will be ahead of previous expectations.

Roberts says:

“The performance during this six month period has been strong, benefiting from our constant focus on our customers’ evolving needs during this time of significant economic volatility.

This has enabled us to achieve continued market share gains, an increase in profitability and improvements in our key financial performance ratios.

Also coming up today

The UK is failing to develop a skilled and globally desirable workforce, with domestic talent increasingly less attractive to overseas businesses, a new survey of international executives has found.

Economic problems followin Brexit, plus political upheaval, means the UK and its workforce is less appealing to global business, the poll of over 5,000 executives by the Institute for Management Development showed.

The UK has dropped 7 places, to 28th of 63 countries studied, on the IMD’s World Talent Ranking.

More here.

The agenda.

  • 9.30am GMT: Weekly UK economic activity data

  • Noon GMT: ECB president Christine Lagarde speaks at the Sixth Annual Conference of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) “Addressing Financial Stability Challenges”

  • 1.30pm GMT: US weekly jobless claims

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