Three wins from three and impressive across the board, Spain weren’t just the only nation to pick up the maximum nine points in the group stage at Euro 2024, they were also the only nation to get through those first three fixtures without conceding a single goal.
There’s little doubt that Luis de la Fuente’s team have been one of the most, perhaps the most, impressive early performers at the tournament and that they’ve quickly marked themselves out as the team to beat, but they will now also be looking at their route to the final and acknowledging it’s going to be an extremely tough one.
First, it’s Georgia. The finals debutants have enthralled and enraptured with their gutsy showings, aggressive defensive work and adventurous counter-attacks, have the breakout star of the tournament so far and produced a display of real quality to beat Portugal last time out and book their last-16 spot. Beat them and Spain will potentially face the hosts, Germany; then if that hurdle is navigated it could be the World Cup finalists in France.
As far as runs go it’s a monster one with extremely varied challenges to overcome, but Spain’s defensive resolve shown in the groups gives them as much cause for optimism as their overall performances should.
There remains perhaps a single question mark over La Roja though, and it’s both a big one and a highly relevant one to their very first task of beating Georgia: that possible lack of clinical edge, and whether it’s to again be a defining trait of their tourmament, as it has before.
On first glance that could seem questionable itself. Spain scored five in the groups, only Germany (eight) and Austria (six) managing more, and of course Spain’s spread led to them winning each clash - more useful if replicated in the knockouts than the hosts putting five past their opening-night opponents but then needing a late equaliser to avoid defeat to nil in their third game.
Spain should have scored more goals themselves though, without question, and there’s the fact that Georgia’s approach, system and style might well be set up to deflect much of what Spain can throw at them.
But first, that clinical edge.
It was notable at Qatar in 2022 that Spain started with a 7-0 win and yet didn’t top the group. They had struggled for goals before the tournament, hammered Costa Rica, but then scored only twice more in their three further games at the tournament and exited on penalties following a goalless draw.
Spain have continued their approach of dominating matches, with Nico Williams and Yamine Lamal now giving them ferocious pace and skill down the flanks to further stretch opposition defences, but while chance creation remains high, missing those chances is also pretty astronomical.
They’ve created a tournament-high 12 statistically defined “big chances”, but missed nine of them - also higher than anyone else. They have only marginally underperformed their cumulative xG for the tournament, but their shot conversion rate stands at only 10 per cent - around the same as Netherlands or Italy, but notably lower than potential quarter-final opponents Germany or another impressive group stage performer in Austria.
It’s also not down to a single individual.
Alvaro Morata is the centre-forward, but has long played the part of faciltator as much as chance-taker in that Spain attack. He has missed two big chances, but has one goal from an xG of 1.0 and is getting half his efforts on target so far. Fabian Ruiz, Pedri and sub Mikel Oyarzabal are perhaps more guilty of failing to add to the tally than the captain.
Yet they will keep creating, as the threats are so varied: players to already lay on between three and six scoring chances for them include both starting wingers, Marc Cucurella from left-back, Ruiz from deeper in midfield and of course Pedri, roving higher through the middle and often in the box.
And it’s as well that the chances come from all over - because Georgia have shown a way of finding bodies in the way right across the park.
Their 3-5-2 has great outlets in key man Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and group stage top scorer Georges Mikautadze, but the whole team break forwad as a unit... and defend as one, too.
Williams and Yamal will not find space easy to come by. Morata will find himself tightly marked in the middle, especially during periods of sustained possession. Even the genius movement of Pedri will be hard-pressed to take the ball on the half-turn and not be immediately faced by one, even two, challenges from those stepping out from defensive lines.
And even when those lines are breached - Georgia have conceded a total xG of 8.1 at Euro 2024, 2.2 higher than any other nation - Giorgi Mamardashvili, who plays his club football in Spain with Valencia, has proven the safest of hands at the tournament, preventing more goals than anyone else, based on scoring probability of each shot.
It’s easy to imagine on a combined quality basis, a meeting with Germany in the quarters or France in the semis might be far bigger, far more difficult challenges for Spain.
But before they can even consider them, this genuinely looks like one of those unique meetings where a specific strength and potential weakness align, even before the emotion of the occasion is factored in - a last-16 game is far bigger for Georgia than for their more storied opponents, after all.
It is an encounter where the favourites must find improvement in that exact problematic aspect of their own game, to avoid what would be a second straight disappointing early exit, a fourth departure at the last-16 stage in five tournaments and the unquestioned shock of Euro 2024.
