The age of the mega-IPO is upon us and, for venture capital, it could create as many problems as it solves.
As rumors swirl that SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic may hit the public markets in 2026, this trio would mark the three biggest venture-backed IPOs of all time. PitchBook, in a note published this week, estimated that this could “conceivably create more value than all VC-backed IPOs since 2000 have collectively.”
Consider the numbers: U.S. venture-backed IPOs raised $62.1 billion in 2021, a record year. Now look at SpaceX alone. The company, started as an Elon Musk moonshot in 2002, is reportedly looking to rake in $50 billion on its own. SpaceX’s valuation is reported to be $1.5 trillion, and for investors who backed the company in its 2023 round (then valuing the company at $137 billion), PitchBook estimates those investors are due a stunning 10x return. (In that group, there are nearly 50 investors, including Andreessen Horowitz.)
Then there’s OpenAI and Anthropic. If one or both of these companies go public, it would mean a cascade of much-needed returns for U.S. venture capital, a sector starved for liquidity for half a decade.
However, some words of caution: First, these prospective massive liquidity events will be relatively concentrated, a reflection of the lopsided AI market. SpaceX is so big that there will be many investor winners—but even so, there are only so many. And it’s not like the rumored pipeline beyond the biggest names is exactly robust right now, though Strava, Cerebras, Kraken, Motive, and Discord are all in the reported IPO mix.
Already large investors are set to be the biggest winners here. Stanford points out that Nvidia, Microsoft, Altimeter, Coatue, and Fidelity all are investors in Anthropic and OpenAI, Andreessen’s an investor in SpaceX, xAI and OpenAI, and T. Rowe Price has invested in all three. This could “further push the concentration that has been building in VC for a couple of years. All these investors haven’t had trouble raising new funds, and if they are going to be able to send back billions in cash to LPs, they will see that recycled into their funds in their next raise.”
What’s more, this year just isn’t shaping up to be the stable recovery that so many in the private markets have been dreaming about. Geopolitical uncertainty has only ratcheted up with the war in Iran, and very few IPOs of the last year have done well. (Figma, for example, came out of the gate swinging and shares have since dropped about 80%.)
And, of course, if no one in that Big Three takes the IPO leap, that’s a signal of its own.
“A market kept private by these companies probably indicates that the IPO market is closed for tech firms,” said Stanford. “With the war in Iran pushing up energy prices and causing a shift away from risky tech companies, we are probably looking at another year of low tech IPO activity and significant revaluations of those companies.”
See you Monday,
Allie Garfinkle
X: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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