Beginning Thursday, the proportion of SpaceX’s (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares available for public trading is set to rise from less than 5% to more than 12%, with more lockup expirations scheduled for Aug 20 and late September. The expanding free float could gradually increase the rocket company’s weight in float-adjusted indexes such as the Nasdaq-100, making the stock an even larger holding across passive ETFs.
According to Morningstar data, 179 U.S.-listed ETFs already hold SpaceX. The largest owner is the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), with nearly $6 billion invested in the company. Other funds with significant exposure include the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (NASDAQ:QQQM), Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF (NASDAQ:ONEQ), Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSE:VUG) and Vanguard Morningstar Mega Cap Growth ETF (NYSE:MGK).
Why the Lockup Matters
Major equity indexes such as the Nasdaq-100 use float-adjusted market capitalization to determine constituent weights, meaning only shares available for public trading count toward index calculations. As SpaceX’s free float expands, its investable market value rises, potentially leading to a larger index weighting at future rebalances.
While ETFs are unlikely to buy additional shares immediately, higher float-adjusted weights typically result in incremental demand from passive funds that track those benchmarks.
The timing is notable as U.S.-listed ETFs continue attracting record inflows, amplifying the impact of changes in benchmark constituents.
Strong Revenue Growth Supports ETF Interest
SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, well ahead of expectations and nearly double the $4.1 billion generated a year earlier. The company also narrowed its net loss to $541 million from approximately $1 billion in the prior-year quarter.
The primary growth driver remained Starlink, which added more than one million subscribers during the quarter across 170 markets. CEO Elon Musk also highlighted the launch of the first Starlink V3 satellites, which he said offer roughly ten times the capability of previous-generation satellites.
Despite the earnings beat, SpaceX shares declined in after-hours trading, suggesting investors remain cautious following the stock’s sharp rally since its Nasdaq debut.
A Bigger Weight in Passive Portfolios
SpaceX’s growing presence also adds to concerns about concentration within technology-focused ETFs.
The company has quickly become one of the Nasdaq’s largest constituents, joining heavyweight names such as Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Apple, Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon.com, Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) in driving index performance. As its float increases through upcoming lockup expirations, passive funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 and broader growth benchmarks could become even more exposed to the stock.
For ETF investors, the significance of this week’s lockup expiration extends well beyond insider selling. A larger public float increases SpaceX’s investable market capitalization, setting the stage for greater representation across passive funds over time. With two more lockup expirations scheduled in the coming weeks, the company’s ETF footprint could continue expanding even if its overall valuation remains unchanged.
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