Former President Trump enjoys a double-digit lead over Nikki Haley in the upcoming South Carolina primary, according to recent polls. However, diving deeper into the numbers and speaking with Republican voters in the state reveals a complex electorate still grappling with their decision and the direction of their party.
Nikki Haley, a former popular governor of South Carolina, does not have the same level of support she once enjoyed in her home state. One key factor contributing to this is the profound influence and appeal of Donald Trump. Since Haley was last on the ballot a decade ago, Trump has won the 2016 primary, the 2016 general election, and the 2020 election in South Carolina. Trump's dominance in the state has overshadowed Haley's popularity, leading many voters to prefer him as their choice for president.
While some like Haley as a governor, they view Trump as their chosen leader. One such example is Joy Rendulic, owner of Island Treats ice cream shop in Polly's Island. Rendulic, who left Pennsylvania eight years ago to buy the shop, believes that God has assigned Trump to the position of president and that he will be president again. She attributes Trump's loss in the 2020 election to widespread cheating, despite no evidence being found by any state or federal judge.
The unwavering support for Trump is a sentiment shared by many in South Carolina. Mark Sanford, a former Republican governor, offers a different perspective on Trump. Sanford criticized Trump's spending and tone, which led to his loss in the 2018 Republican primary. While he agrees with Haley's criticisms of Trump, Sanford expects Trump to have a significant victory in the state.
Another factor contributing to Trump's strong support in South Carolina is his impact on the economy. Billy Pierce, a resident of Hartsville, believes that his life improved during Trump's presidency, citing low inflation and interest rates. Pierce is not an election denier but wishes that Trump had shown better restraint in his communication. Nonetheless, he trusts Trump more than Haley when it comes to important issues like border security.
Despite the hope of some voters for a new beginning in the Republican race and a win for Haley, it appears to be an uphill battle. Recent polls indicate that Trump is ahead by approximately 25 points in South Carolina. The electorate in the state tends to be conservative, with a substantial portion (57%) believing that Joe Biden was elected because of fraud. This belief translates into strong support for Trump, with 85% backing him over Haley.
Furthermore, Haley would need to change the composition of the electorate by attracting more moderates, Democrats, and independents. However, at the moment, she is not gaining significant traction in that regard. The state's voter demographics, resembling those of Iowa, heavily favor Trump, with nearly 70% of white evangelicals supporting him compared to 22% for Haley.
With only two weeks until the primary, Haley faces an uphill battle to overcome Trump's firm hold on South Carolina. Trump's strong performance in the state in the past, coupled with his continued popularity and support among voters, make it unlikely for Haley to secure a win and alter the course of the Republican race.
