A Welsh writer once admitted to shedding a tear when hearing over the radio that Wales had beaten South Africa for the first time.
He even stated where he was and what he was doing at the very point the news came over. Driving across the M4, not far from Port Talbot, since you ask, in 1999. The chap in question had been brought up believing that South Africa were a team Wales couldn’t beat.
Welsh sides had defeated the All Blacks three times, after all, in the early years of matches between the nations, but not the Springboks. They were a team Wales rarely played and when they did the verdict always went the way of the opposition. A generation or three of schoolboys grew up thinking it was some kind of iron sporting rule.
Imagine how the scribe would feel if Wales managed to complete a series win in South Africa this weekend.
Read more: South Africa v Wales decider: Exact scoreline predicted by writers as history beckons
What are their chances? On paper, it could be tough. But the cliche tells us games are not won on paper, and the cliche is right.
Still, we assess how the teams mark up.
Back three - South Africa 8 Wales 8
Damian Willemse, Cheslin Kolbe and Makazole Mapimpi v Liam Williams, Louis Rees-Zammit and Josh Adams
South Africa looked more dangerous when using Willemse at fly-half rather than full-back in the first game of this series, but, make no mistake, the Stormers man is a handful wherever he plays. Kolbe doesn’t need any introductions as an attacking force, either, while Mapimpi can finish with the best of them.
Not giving them much ball wouldn't be a bad idea for an opposition team. If any of the trio do get possession, then Wales will want to close down their space or simply do what they can to rattle them.
Easier said than done, though.
There have been glimpses of Wales’ wings with ball in hand, but not many such sightings amid a conservative game-plan. The two tries Rees-Zammit scored in Pretoria, though, will make sure the Springboks stay wary of his threat.
A second watch of the game in Bloemfontein confirmed that Williams had been quietly excellent, with his work in defence to rescue a potentially difficult situation late on amounting to one of moments of the match: no panic, just class and clear thinking to bail his side out of trouble. You can read about the making of Liam Williams here.
Centres - South Africa 9 Wales 7
Lukhanyo Am, Damien de Allende v George North, Nick Tompkins
It’s hard to imagine there’s a better midfield pairing on the planet right now than Am and de Allende. If one of them doesn’t get you, the other one will. With bells on.
Am can destroy an opposing team’s confidence with one tackle, while his offensive game is hot as well. An offload against New Zealand last year would have opened a defence bolted as tightly as Alcatraz in its heyday. Alongside him, de Allende boasts physicality and skills, exemplified by the perfectly judged kick through for Cheslin Kolbe to score in the first Test on July 2.
Little has been seen of the Welsh centres in attack so far in this series. In fairness, the team has presumably played according to the game-plan.
But it just seems a waste that someone with George North’s power and pace has been restricted to three carries over two matches, runs that haven’t yielded a single metre for his side.
Half-backs - South Africa 7 Wales 8
Handre Pollard, Jaden Hendrikse v Dan Biggar, Kieran Hardy
The starting Welsh half-backs were superb in the first match of this campaign, outplaying Faf de Klerk and Elton Jantjies. Hardy’s box-kicking could barely have been better, with three to four seconds of hang-time almost every time he did his stuff, allowing team-mates to chase and contest.
Biggar was Biggar, contesting everything and as brave as a lion. Opposing the Welsh pair, their Springbok counterparts were insipid.
There wasn’t a vast improvement when Pollard and Hendrikse started last week, though they are quality players. Advantage Wales here, though.
Front row - South Africa 8 Wales 6
Trevor Nyakane, Bongi Mbonambi, Frans Malherbe v Gareth Thomas, Ryan Elias and Dillon Lewis
Wales have done well to avoid being overwhelmed in the scrums out so far on this tour.
Gareth Thomas has done more than just cope at loosehead, while Dillon Lewis, despite not being renowned in the pushing-and-shoving game, has dug in against opponents whose reputation for strong set-piece work is fully justified. And Ryan Elias has performed strongly at hooker, shirking nothing around the field and largely finding his intended lineout targets.
But if South Africa click as a force in the front row opponents can look out. Mbonambi and Malherbe started the 2019 World Cup final and the powerful Nyakane is no slouch, either.
Maybe it will be a game of few scrums. Wales will hope so.
Second row - South Africa 9 Wales 7
Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager v Will Rowlands, Adam Beard
Etzebeth’s reputation as a world-class performer goes before him, but Lood de Jager proved the shining light in South Africa’s pack in the first game of this series. Arguably, he was their best player, full stop — even taking into account Damian Willemse’s fine second-half performance. LDJ has the ability to threaten any opposition lineout and he is good around the field.
Will Rowlands has been hitting the treble 20 bed regularly in terms of big performances but he struggled to impose himself last time out. Wales will need him and pack leader Beard to bang in huge displays if they are to achieve boilerhouse parity in Cape Town.
Back row - South Africa 8 Wales 8
Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Jasper Wiese v Dan Lydiate, Tommy Reffell, Taulupe Faletau
Wiese was the official man of the match in game one, but Faletau was arguably the best player on the field, calmly sorting out challenging situations, turning bad ball into good possession and seemingly everywhere at once.
Reffell and Lydiate have been excellent as well. You can read about the renaissance of Welsh rugby's great gladiator here.
They have been perfectly suited to the game-plan Wales have employed and the balance of Pivac’s breakaway trio has been spot-on. Watch Reffell hunting for turnovers in the decider, with Lydiate smashing back onrushing ball-carriers and Faletau unhurried as looks to bend the game to his will.
But their South African counterparts are handy as well. They really are.
Wiese has the power to make inroads into any defence and Kolisi tackles hard and poses a breakdown threat, while du Toit wasn’t world player of the year in 2019 by chance.
The temptation is to give Wales an extra mark here on form grounds, but then you look at the quality in the Springboks trio and think better of it.
The bench - South Africa 9 Wales 8
“The issue is the bomb squad. I just think Malcolm Marx is unplayable. With Kitshoff, it is kind of unfair. It is like finishing 14 rounds in a world championship fight, like the Thriller in Manilla, and then suddenly there's another guy who comes in swinging and you just cannot duck the punches.”
Nothing much to argue about in Scott Gibbs’ analysis there.
South Africa’s replacement front row is arguably the best 1, 2 and 3 in the world, while their three other bench forwards are dynamic and Faf de Klerk and Willie le Roux are potential game-changers behind the scrum.
Wales have quality back-up, as well, with firepower in the backs and muscle and experience up front. If Sam Wainwright’s lack of game-time at this level is a concern from a Welsh perspective, the Saracen managed the final 14 minutes well last weekend and will take confidence from his effort.
Totals: South Africa 58 Wales 52
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