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Matthew Southcombe & Mark Orders & Ben James

South Africa v Wales decider: Exact scoreline predicted by writers as history beckons

Wales have already made history in beating the Springboks for the first time in South Africa - can they go one step further by also winning the deciding Test in Cape Town?

Our expert writers predict what will happen in the crunch clash.

Matthew Southcombe - History beckons

I've gone back and forth on this all week. I think Wales will be hanging on for dear life in this Test, having used largely the same 23 players in the two bruising opening Test matches. That being said, the front row has been pretty well-managed and both locks have been replaced, meaning neither has shouldered a drastically heavier load than the other.

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But just how much the rest of the players have in the tank will remain to be seen. The Springboks are the reverse. They're playing with a much-changed side again, the majority of which had last week off. So does that mean they'll be fresh or will they still shown signs of rust that were evident at Loftus Versfeld? This is the conundrum.

Just how fit are Dan Biggar and Dillon Lewis? More key questions. It's extremely difficult to call, as most Wales v South Africa games are these days.

A familiarity with referee Matt Carley should go in Wales' favour but all logic tells you that South Africa should have too much for their visitors.

But Wales have defied logic before. In many ways, they're specialists at it. One more big effort is required before they hit the beach for six weeks. They've lived with the world champions on the Highveld, what's to stop them creating more history down at sea level?

Whatever happens, it'll be tight.

South Africa 20-25 Wales

Ot her games: New Zealand 31-20 Ireland; Australia 15-25 England; Argentina 17-24 Scotland

Ben James - One Test too far for Wales

The fact Wales head to Cape Town Stadium with the Test series still up for grabs is testament to what a fine tour this has been so far.

Above all, Wayne Pivac and Wales have benefitted from a consistency in selection that has, to date, been missing. Pivac made just four changes between the first and second Test, while he's made only two for the third Test.

Compare that to the average of nearly 12 changes to his 23 between games before the tour of South Africa, with the least amount of personnel and positional changes he'd previously made for any game being five during the 2021 Six Nations triumph, and you could make a case for this being the biggest triumph of the tour.

Well, you could were Wales not in with a chance of a historic series win. That consistency in selection will be tested against a refreshed South Africa side. After two brutal Tests, Pivac will be praying there's enough petrol left in the tank.

Conversely, the Springboks lacked fluency in the first Test and that rest last week might not have been as useful for continuity as some might have you believe. Wales will be quietly confident they can largely negate the world champions' attacking threats and stay in the fight close to the end.

That's when the benches come into play. On this occasion, the 'Bomb Squad' might just have too much physicality for a Wales team who have already given so much.

South Africa 19-15 Wales

O her games: New Zealand 23-21 Ireland; Australia 22-27 England; Argentina 18-20 Scotland

Mark Orders - Wales face big ask in series decider

South Africa have important cards in their favour heading into the final Test.

They are able to welcome back 10 fresh players into their starting lineup after resting them for the second game of the series.

Wales, by contrast, start with 14 of the team who fronted up during a tough encounter in Bloemfontein last weekend.

Stuff like that matters.

There appeared next to no chance that Dan Biggar and Dillon Lewis would make it after their injuries in the middle game of the series, but both are in Wayne Pivac's starting line-up, with Wales doubtless hoping the pair are hundred percent fit.

The tourists can take heart after performing so well against a fully loaded South Africa in the first Test, a display that should have removed any fear factor. Pivac will want his players to be clinical again and also find a way of countering the ferocious driving maul the Springboks used to such devastating effect in the second half in Pretoria. Oh, and it wouldn’t hurt from a Welsh perspective if the players played in the hosts’ faces once again, as they did in the series opener.

But South Africa’s 23 bristles with power, pace and quality. Their starting XV sees a pack that could threaten any in the world and a three-quarter line that’s rapid, physical and skilful. The bench is none too shabby, either.

Wales have shown they can stand toe to toe with the Boks, but they won’t — or shouldn’t — be satisfied just with being competitive. Pivac will urge his players to go out and make history by becoming the first Welsh side to win an away series in South Africa.

However, they'll need to produce their best performance under this regime to get the job done.

It's a big ask.

South Africa 26-19 Wales

Other games: New Zealand 28-20 Ireland; Australia 25-28 England; Argentina 15-21 Scotland

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