All things considered, Australia’s draw for the 2026 World Cup can’t be described as simple. But it’s also fair to say that things could have gone a lot worse. And at an expanded, 48-team tournament, it is a group that the Socceroos should not be overawed by.
At the end of a sometimes ridiculous, sometimes cringe-inducing, and sometimes shameless draw in Washington DC, Australia’s men had found themselves sorted into Group D by the time the Village People closed the show. They will begin the tournament placed alongside co-hosts the United States, South American foes Paraguay, and a European qualifier to be drawn from one of Turkey, Slovakia, Kosovo, or Romania.
This means that, for the first time in their seven trips to the global footballing showpiece, the Socceroos have not been placed with a former winner. They have not only avoided the likes of Argentina, Spain, and France from pot one – instead drawing a nation placed there as one of three co-hosts – but also dodged the likes of Norway in pot three and Italy in pot four. Set to play on the American and Canadian west coasts, the Socceroos will face relatively simple travel requirements, and will hopefully avoid the worst of the heat expected to hit North America in the middle of next year.
Even if one doesn’t take confidence from this, and memories of England’s reaction to their “easy” 2010 draw serve as a cautionary tale in taking anything for granted at a World Cup, then it should at least soothe a few nerves. This isn’t a redux of 2014, when Ange Postecoglou’s side was handed the nightmare slate of Spain, the Netherlands, and Chile. And it is not difficult to contort one’s mind to envision a scenario where Australia navigates a path to the knockout stages.
Since Popovic’s arrival, the Socceroos have further honed a style that is almost built for tournament football – historically demonstrated by the coach’s success in leading outsiders Western Sydney to an Asian Champions League crown in 2014.
Playing a well-organised, highly disciplined, and physical back five, the unheralded Australians may just be one of the most resolute sides at the World Cup, especially if they’re able to welcome back a healthy Alessandro Circati and Harry Souttar. While the absence of the clinical edge characterising their qualification form has further exposed the challenges they have in creating clear goalscoring chances, an ability to keep games close, avoid blowouts to goal difference, and grind out results is a significant asset in tournament football – especially an expanded one in which eight of the 12 third-placed teams will advance.
Every nation at the World Cup is looking for silver linings, for the hope that fuels dreams and a belief that, just maybe, anything could be possible. Devotees of the United States and Paraguay, to say nothing of the European side that will ultimately round out the quartet, would be finding plenty of reasons to celebrate the placement of the Socceroos, mired in a three-game losing run, in their group.
As gauche as some of their supporters may be in expressing it, the US has reason to be optimistic about not just topping this group, but making a deep run in the tournament. Not only are they playing at home, which has a demonstrated history, Qatar notwithstanding, of boosting a nation’s performances, but they also field a side packed with talent playing in some of the biggest leagues in the world. The US not only beat the Socceroos 2-1 in October, but also downed Paraguay 2-1 last month.
Stylistically, Paraguay would appear just as ironclad as Australia: La Albirroja’s road to the World Cup paved by a defence that conceded just ten goals across 18 Conmebol qualifiers. Gustavo Alfaro’s side doesn’t score a lot, netting just 14 times across this run, but the Socceroos will be facing down the weight of history when the two face off: having won just nine times in 50 games against South American foes. Just two of those wins have come across the past two decades.
The Socceroos will likely enter all three of their group stage fixtures as a slight underdog. Maybe this is a good thing, playing to their strengths and a mentality that Australian sides of any age or gender play best when given greater opportunity to sit back, defend well, and pick moments to break with speed and purpose. “I think anyone that underestimates us will get a rude shock when it comes to those group games,” Popovic said.
One can envision a scenario where the Socceroos lose all three of their group games next June. But regardless of the odds, tags of favouritism, or any other factors, one can also realistically pontificate on them winning all three. Or some mix of results that propels them into the knockouts. And that’s a lot better than some alternatives.
