THE SNP would lead Labour by just two percentage points at a General Election, a new poll has suggested.
The YouGov survey, carried out on behalf of the Labour-affiliated Scottish Fabians, found that 33% of voters said they would vote SNP in the next Westminster election, while 31% said they would vote Labour.
In total, 20% of people said they would vote Conservative while the Scottish Greens were on 6% and the LibDems on 4%.
With Don’t Knows removed, the gap between the SNP and Labour narrowed to a single percentage point.
Analysis suggested that 33% of voters would back the SNP, 32% Labour, 20% the Tories, and 5% would back both the Greens and the LibDems.
Based on a sample size of 1003 adults, the analysis also suggested that support for Labour in Scotland includes around 17% of people who voted for the SNP at the 2019 General Election.
The results are very different to those from a YouGov poll conducted in September, which found the SNP had an 11-point lead over Labour (38% vs 27%).
Scottish Fabians previously calculated that Labour need the backing of one in five of those who voted SNP or Green in 2019 to win 25 targets seats across Scotland and form a majority government.
The targeted seats are all currently held by the SNP – apart from Rutherglen and Hamilton West, which Labour won in a by-election to replace previous MP Margaret Ferrier last week.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice (above) has said that for every 12 seats Labour win in Scotland, it takes two points off the swing needed in the rest of the UK.
Winning most or all of these Scottish target seats is crucial for Labour, as it makes the path to power in Westminster much easier, the Fabians said.
Labour had far fewer respondents who said they would never consider voting for the party (28%), compared with 45% who said the same about the SNP and 61% who said they would never consider voting for the Conservatives.
Katherine Sangster, national director of the Scottish Fabians, said: “Following the victory in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, this research shows Labour is well positioned to win target seats across Scotland at the next election.
“Labour is making significant progress in rebuilding the ‘first red wall’, with key voter groups either intending to vote Labour or open to doing so – and they want a majority Labour government after the next election.
“There remains more to do for Labour to convert support into votes at the ballot box, and there is an obvious group to persuade: those who prefer a majority Labour government but aren’t yet backing the party.
“However, the evidence is clear – Labour is on the right track towards winning seats across Scotland and forming a majority government whenever the next election is called.”
Further analysis showed 21% of SNP voters in the last general election and 18% of independence voters at the 2014 referendum said a Labour majority government was their preferred outcome at the next election.
Overall, a Labour majority UK government emerged as the most popular outcome in Scotland.
Eighteen per cent of voters said they would back a majority Conservative government.
