Just three months into the role, Snowy Hydro's new boss is admitting the pumped-hydro battery project is facing up to another two years of delays.
Snowy Hydro 2.0 has been plagued by time and budget blowouts, with the latest forecast warning it may take until the end of 2029 for the site to be fully operational.
"It's pretty clear to me that the schedule will go out by between one and two years, and over the next few months, we'll work through what the cost implications are," Snowy Hydro CEO Dennis Barnes said in an exclusive interview with RN Breakfast.
Mr Barnes blamed the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chains, inflation and technical difficulties.
"[At the] early stage design, you learn more as you learn more about the geological conditions, and they're a bit harder and a bit more expensive," he said.
Greens Leader Adam Bandt argued the project should be "ditched".
"There's significant problems with some instructions that [Snowy Hydro] got from the last government that haven't been fully addressed by this government," he said.
The Grattan Institute's Energy Program director Tony Wood said any assessment of blowouts needed to be realistic.
"We need a very clear, hard-headed assessment on the costs and more importantly the timetable for when we will get this online," he said.
Under the new timeline, Snowy Hydro said first power could be generated by the project by mid-2027 at the earliest.
The project was the centrepiece of Malcolm Turnbull's climate change policy in 2017, and was costed at just $2 billion at the time.
The last estimates had the project at close to $6 billion, but Dennis Barnes said the company would provide another update in July.
"As soon as I'm able to be transparent on costs, we will be," he said.
Florence the machine at a standstill
The latest difficulty had seen Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) Florence, one of three machines drilling tunnels to connect the project, at a standstill.
TBM Florence was stuck in soft ground and unable to turn for four months after a 9-metre-deep hole opened above it.
Snowy Hydro said the machine has still only dug around 150 metres of the 15-kilometre tunnel.
"The Tunnel Boring Machine launched properly in November and very quickly hit some soft ground and we weren't expecting that soft ground," Mr Barnes said.
"When the machine gets moving, which we're expecting in weeks not months, then we do expect that the machine will move at the rate of more than 10 metres a day."
That 10 metres is less than the 30 to 50 metres it was initially expected to dig when commissioned last year.
Tony Wood said the issue is not uncommon, but it does add costs to the already ballooning budget.
"Tunnel boring machines get stuck, it's not the first time it's ever happened but the timetable remains challenging," he said.
'Urgent' need for backup capacity
Last week, the Liddell coal-fired power station in the New South Wales Hunter Region shut down its generators.
It is part of a series of ageing coal-powered plants slated to close over the coming decade.
But earlier this year, the chief executive of the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) said the delays of the Snowy Hydro 2.0 and Kurri Kurri gas plant highlighted the "urgent" need to accelerate the rollout of back-up capacity to avoid the risk of blackouts later this decade.
In February, Daniel Westerman said: "Urgent and ongoing investment in renewable energy, long-duration storage and transmission is needed to reliably meet demand from Australian homes and businesses."
Question marks over key transmission lines
Snowy Hydro 2.0 is designed to be connected to the grid via the HumeLink transmission line, a $3 billion project by NSW's Transgrid.
It was slated to be operational by late 2026, ahead of Snowy Hydro coming online, but its timeline is also facing doubts.
"You've got to line them up because they need each other," Tony Wood said.
He said delays on either could have consequences for other renewable projects in the area.
"That transmission is not just connecting Snowy Hydro but it's going to be supporting more renewables in regional areas," Mr Wood said.
"If there are delays in transmission there could be delays in building other renewables as well."
