Fished out of the water, smashed asunder, is a Ukrainian TB2 drone, retrieved in the last couple of days off the coast of Romania and almost certainly a legacy of a bold attempt to retake Snake Island earlier in the month.
The previously inconsequential low-lying 17-hectare (42-acre) rock, nearly 30 miles from the coasts of Ukraine and Romania, has become of growing strategic importance as Russia seeks to maintain its blockade of Ukraine’s remaining coastline.
For all the videos of TB2 drones destroying Russian air defence systems, helicopters and landing craft this month, Ukraine has failed in its attempt to retake the island, memorably lost in the first days of the war when its garrison told the attacking Russian warship to “go fuck yourself”.
Over the weekend a Togolese-flagged vessel passing near Snake Island was warned by the Russians to “leave the territorial waters of Russia, otherwise weapons will be used”, according to the Ukrainian navy. It amounted to “illegally appropriating Ukrainian territory”, the navy added.
Russia’s navy has dominated the Black Sea since the war began, not least because Ukraine had no real maritime force to speak of. It had lost three-quarters or more of its navy during Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014 and its only remaining frigate was deliberately scuttled days after the war started to prevent its capture.
However, Russia lost its flagship missile cruiser, the Moskva, in the middle of April to a Neptune cruise missile strike from Ukraine’s mainland. The ship had provided air and sea defence capability to the remainder of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, consisting of 20 or more warships and submarines.
The Moskva had helped capture Snake Island, and without it the Russian fleet was pushed back further from Ukraine’s coast (Neptune missiles have a range of up to 200 miles), bringing the island back into play. Russia’s determination to hang on to the rock shows it is, in effect, an alternative to the sunken ship.
“Think of it as an unsinkable destroyer,” said Andy Netherwood, an air defence expert. “If you place a radar and surface-to-air missile systems there, it allows you to dominate the airspace in the northern Black Sea, including the strategically important approach to Odesa.”
Russia has used its dominance of the Black Sea to launch Kalibr cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian targets, including from submarines. The missiles can have a range of 1,200 miles, able in theory to strike virtually anywhere in Ukraine.
But if anything it is the economic aspect that has come to the fore. “In a conflict of attrition and erosion, the ability to maintain an economic blockade can become significant. World war one comes to mind,” said Dr Sidharth Kaushal, a naval power expert with the Rusi thinktank, referring to the long British naval blockade of Germany that is widely believed to have helped bring about the Central powers’ eventual collapse towards the end of 1918.
Ukraine, however, is a net exporter of food, particularly grain and sunflower oil. It previously moved 70% of its exports by sea, including 99% of its grain deliveries to countries including Egypt, Ethiopia, Lebanon and Yemen. Although some grain is now moving by land, it will not be enough.
Discussions have turned to the idea of creating a protective naval convoy for merchant shipping bound for Ukraine, as proposed by Lithuania this week. But while the UK and others are sympathetic, it would require broad international support, including, Royal Navy sources suggested on Tuesday, from China.
It would also require the involvement of Turkey, which closed the straits to all warships – except those returning to their home port – at the end of February, a situation welcomed by Ukraine at the time because it prevented more Russian warships from entering the Black Sea.
Opening the straits would allow limited access for Nato warships, for up to 21 days at a time under the 1936 Montreux convention, but also for Russia – meaning any convoy solution may have to be agreed with Moscow. It would also require a de-mining of the Ukrainian coast, somewhat hastily defended when the war broke out.
Amid such complications, attention remains focused on military solutions. Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, said on Monday that Denmark would send to Ukraine a Harpoon cruise missile system, with a similar operational range to the Neptune – the first declared deployment of such a naval system.
That will help keep the Russian warships away from Ukraine’s coast, although Moscow’s Kilo-class submarines remain able to roam far more freely. Despite the attempts to take back Snake Island and the growing international calls to reopen the Black Sea, Russia’s grip on the strategic body of water remains firm.
• This article was amended on 25 May 2022. An earlier version mentioned the English naval blockade of Germany, rather than the British.
