A law banning the sale of tobacco to anyone born after 2009 could see smoking in young people drop below 5 per cent decades earlier than expected.
The government plans to introduce the “smoke-free generation" law as part of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, which would progressively raise the age of sale so that anyone born in 2009 or later can never legally be sold tobacco, starting from 2027.
Around 6 million adults smoke in the UK. While teenage smoking prevalence has declined over the past decade, some 400,000 11- to 15-year-olds in England have tried smoking at some point and 100,000 smoke now, according to Action on Smoking and Health (ASH).
Smoking is the leading cause of premature and preventable death globally. It is responsible for more than a quarter of all cancer deaths in the UK, according to Cancer Research UK.
But new research, led by experts at the University of Nottingham, found smoking prevalence among 12- to 30-year-olds in England could drop below 5 per cent and by 2075, the policy could deliver around 88,000 additional years of healthy life compared with no new law.
Jamie Brown, professor of behavioural science at University College London, told The Independent: “The smoke-free generation has the potential to be the most important public health intervention in living memory.
“Smoking will continue to cause tens of thousands of cancers and deaths a year without bold new policies to radically reduce smoking prevalence.”
The research published in the BMJ-owned journal Tobacco Control used detailed modelling to project how smoking prevalence among 12- to 30-year-olds in England could change over the coming decades if the law is implemented, compared with a scenario in which it is not.
Researchers found the benefits could be the biggest in disadvantaged communities where smoking remains highest. Around 30 per cent of total healthy life years gained are projected to occur in the most deprived 20 per cent of neighbourhoods.
Nathan Davies, lead author and researcher in the School of Medicine at the University of Nottingham, said: “How the policy is implemented will matter. Stronger enforcement, communication and stop smoking support in communities where smoking remains most common could help ensure the benefits are shared across the country and achieved more rapidly.”
The research team’s projections differ from the government’s published impact assessment, predicting a 30 per cent cumulative annual reduction because they use more cautious assumptions about how much the policy will reduce smoking initiation year-on-year.
Hazel Cheeseman, chief executive of ASH, said the modelling shows the law could “transform the nation’s health”, but warned some people could be left behind.
She said: “As this law comes into force, the government must set out how it will ensure every smoker has the support they need to quit, so that no one is excluded from the benefits of a truly smoke-free generation.”
Alizée Froguel, prevention policy manager at Cancer Research UK, said: “Smoking is the leading cause of cancer deaths in England. This study highlights what a landmark step the age of sale legislation will be in helping protect future generations from a lifetime of deadly, costly addiction.”
The World Health Organisation (WHO) warned 15 million children use e-cigarettes, sparking a global nicotine crisis. It is also estimated around 400,000 children aged 11 to 17 currently vape in the UK, according to ASH.
A ban on the sale and supply of disposable vapes in England was introduced in July 2025, which is separate from the Tobacco and Vapes Bill.
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “This government has already pledged to create the UK's first smoke-free generation through our Tobacco and Vapes Bill, which will ensure anyone born after 2008 cannot be sold tobacco.
“We welcome this research, which further supports the assessment that our smoke-free generation policies will save tens of thousands of lives and break the cycle of disadvantage and addiction. Our modelling shows that because of our actions, England will avoid up to 130,000 cases of cases of lung cancer, COPD, strokes and heart diseases over the next 50 years.”
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