India's rice harvest is set to shrink for the first time in a decade. Industry estimates put 2026-27 output at around 144 MT, down 10 MT, or 6.5%, from last year's record 154 MT, the steepest fall since the El Nino drought of 2009-10.
Monsoon rainfall is 15% below normal, with deficits of 42% in some rice-growing states. Indian export quotes are at their highest in more than a year. This shock will test how we manage rice, not whether we can feed ourselves.
