Small parties’ surge offers opportunity and risk for Labour as ‘big two’ vote share poised to fall

Ed Davey campaigning for the Lib Dems in Yeovil last week. It is possible he may emerge as the leader of the opposition. Photograph: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images

Labour’s advance and the Tories’ collapse look set to break records on 4 July, but so does the silent surge for “someone else”. The combined Labour and Conservative share of the vote looks set to be the lowest ever in a universal franchise election. And this unprecedented fracturing of the vote leaves the fate of all parties, big and small, more dependent than ever on electoral geography and a fickle first past the post electoral system.