The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will unfold and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot. No color means the pick is a reasonable value at that spot.
See also:
Sleepers and Value Picks: Quarterbacks
Sleepers and Value Picks: Running Backs
Sleepers and Value Picks: Tight Ends
Average Draft order – Value picks
| ADP | Tm | Wide Receiver | Starter Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | Justin Jefferson | Top wideout of 2022 enters final year of rookie contract with everything to gain by repeating that No. 1 ranking. |
| 2 | CIN | Ja’Marr Chase | Lock to be Top-5, could challenge for No. 1 |
| 3 | LAR | Cooper Kupp | Rams didn’t add any new receivers so Kupp, health willing, will end with an obscene amount of receptions. His health may be a concern. |
| 4 | MIA | Tyreek Hill | Says he wants 2,000 yards and while unlikely, it wouldn’t be all that shocking. |
| 5 | DAL | CeeDee Lamb | Better each year and was No. 6 last season. 107 catches in 2022 was just four short of Cowboys record by Michael Irvin. |
| 6 | BUF | Stefon Diggs | Never worse than No. 7 after three years in Buffalo. |
| 7 | PHI | A.J. Brown | First year in Philly and had a career year as the No. 5 fantasy wideout last year. Now he already has chemistry with Jalen Hurts. |
| 8 | LV | Davante Adams | Been Top-3 for the last three seasons and yes, even without Aaron Rodgers. 100 catches is his standard. |
| 9 | NYJ | Garrett Wilson | Rookie season saw 83-1103-4 learning new offense while the Jets used four different quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers brought his own receivers, all except for the next Davante Adams… |
| 10 | DET | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Lions will feature some new faces on the offense, but St. Brown has already locked down the WR1 role and already caught over twice as much as any other receiver. Already belongs to the 100-catch club. |
| 11 | MIA | Jaylen Waddle | Maybe Tyreek Hill isn’t going to dominate all the targets. Waddle didn’t suffer, he just got better with 1,356 yards and a team-high eight receiving touchdowns. |
| 12 | PHI | DeVonta Smith | Same deal as Waddle. Brought in A.J. Brown and Smith just got better with 95-1196-7. Already was a Top-10 wideout last year so this feels like a good value. |
| 13 | NO | Chris Olave | 1.11 pick last year looks to improve on his 72-1042-4 rookie season playing with Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston. Derek Carr will be an upgrade and their schedule is much better. |
| 14 | CIN | Tee Higgins | This feels too high for a wideout that’s never been better than the No. 19 in his three seasons. He’s hit his ceiling already and it isn’t this high. |
| 15 | SEA | D.K. Metcalf | Solid as a lock for around 1,000 yards and ten touchdowns. Switching to Geno Smith didn’t improve his stats, but didn’t bring them down much either. |
| 16 | CLE | Amari Cooper | Two of his last three years saw him as Top-15 and now he gets a full year of Deshaun Watson. Cooper scored a career-best nine touchdowns in 2022 and only played six games with Watson. |
| 17 | SF | Deebo Samuel | Remember 2021? I remember 2019, 2020, and 2022 as well. Never better than No. 31 other than the one aberrant season. Christian McCaffrey already does everything that Samuel does, only better and a whole lot more often. |
| 18 | WAS | Terry McLaurin | He’s been a lock for WR2 stats every year. Imagine what he could do if the Commanders had a quarterback. I bet McLaurin does. |
| 19 | LAC | Keenan Allen | Safe spot for Allen. He’s offered WR1 stats for five straight years but then had injury woes last season. He’s 31 years old and starting to cool down while the Chargers brought in Quentin Johnson to kickoff the transition. |
| 20 | TEN | DeAndre Hopkins | He was a perennial Top-5 wideout for four straight seasons, but then the wheels started wobbling in 2021 with a hamstring issue and torn MCL. He wasn’t the same last year and the knee continued to flare up and the Cardinals fell apart. Now he joins the Titans who already have Treylon Burk and yet ranked around No. 30 in virtually every passing category. Not exactly a high-octane passing attack heading to the Super Bowl. |
| 21 | JAX | Calvin Ridley | Plenty of reasons not to buy into Ridley, but all reports have him looking great in camp and gaining chemistry with Trevor Lawrence. He’s a popular sleeper and will not come cheaply despite not playing for nearly two years. And yet, he’s on a short list of players that could explode and far exceed their draft spot. His last full season had him as the No. 5 fantasy wideout of 2020. |
| 22 | GB | Christian Watson | After the defections to the Jets, Watson is the clear WR1 for the Packers but was only the No. 41 fantasy wideout playing with Aaron Rodgers with minimal other receivers of note. Swapping out to the first year for Jordan Love seems far more risk than likely reward for a player that only managed three games with more than 50 yards last year under better circumstances. |
| 23 | CHI | D.J. Moore | Has never been worse than the No. 25 fantasy wideout but also not much better and he ends up in Chicago on the passing offense that ranked No.32 in pass attempts and yards. |
| 24 | DEN | Jerry Jeudy | Even with Russell Wilson struggling, Jeudy ended as the No. 22 fantasy wideout and there’s every reason to expect that the Broncos pass better this year with the change in coaches and offense. |
| 25 | LAC | Mike Williams | Other than 2021, Williams has spent his career with around WR3 fantasy stats. He was No. 14 in 2021 but then only No. 33 last year. Williams usually missed a couple of games in most seasons. |
| 26 | JAX | Christian Kirk | This seems pretty harsh dropping from No. 12 last year. Perhaps the addition of Calvin Ridley has most spooked, but as we saw on several teams last year, it is not a zero sum game. Adding Ridley may just add more production and Kirk doesn’t have to see his stats take a dive. |
| 27 | TB | Chris Godwin | Godwin was a solid fantasy WR2 the last couple of seasons with Tom Brady there, and now that they move onto Baker Mayfield (or Kyle Trask), it seems prudent to dial back the expectations, especially since Mayfeld is not going to throw 811 times like Brady just did. He should deliver at least this level of production and maybe a bit better depending on Mayfield who did produce two 1,000-yard receivers in one season at Cleveland. |
| 28 | ATL | Drake London | The first wideout drafted in 2022 should be ready for a Year 2 leap after posting 72-866-4 as a rookie on a team that didn’t throw. Desmond Ridder takes over, the Falcons’ rushing game must be respected, and they have the lightest schedule strengths after battling one of the worst last year. London was already the No. 28 wideout last year and this draft spot assumes no improvement? Very nice value here. |
| 29 | SEA | Tyler Lockett | He’s been a solid fantasy WR2 for the last five seasons but he turns 31 years old and the Seahawks have an out with his contract next year. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the first wideout drafted this year and is ready to take the torch from Lockett sooner than later. Lockett will still have a role and will offer fantasy value, but for the first time he’s likely to see a decline in workload as the season progresses. |
| 30 | IND | Michael Pittman Jr. | This feels like a bargain for a talented wideout who was around No. 20 for the last two seasons with a revolving door at quarterback. But adding the raw rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson to the equation has to have some dampening effect. Pittman is worth the pick as a mid-level WR3. |
| 31 | SF | Brandon Aiyuk | This feels too low for a wideout that has never been worse than No. 35 even as a rookie that missed four games. He was No. 15 last year and the 49ers appear to be getting Brock Purdy back. The schedule is worse, but this drop seems unwarranted. |
| 32 | PIT | Diontae Johnson | Johnson’s stats suffered when Ben Roethlisberger was no longer shot-putting every other pass to him. Johnson ended as the No. 32 fantasy wideout last year when he ended with 86-882 and a historic zero touchdowns on that many catches. George Pickens should see an uptick this year and the Steelers want to focus more on the run. Johnson is likely safe here, but there’s no reason to expect much upside. |
| 33 | TB | Mike Evans | This is ADP. I am not sure why since Chris Godwin goes five picks earlier and Evans already ranks No. 2 in NFL history with nine straight 1,000-yard seasons. 33? He’s never been worse than No. 22 and that’s playing with a slew of marginal quarterbacks prior to Tom Brady. He is only 29 and is impressively linking up with Baker Mayfield in training camp. I might just draft him twice to make sure I get him. He’s rarely a fantasy WR1 but he’s never been a WR3. |
| 34 | ARI | Marquise Brown | Every player on every team has fantasy value of some level and is worth owning at the right spot. I feel comfortable with always letting someone else find the right spot for a Cardinals’ receiver. Looks like a train wreck this year. |
| 35 | PIT | George Pickens | No problem taking Pickens here as a final fantasy WR3. He’s in a nice spot for a step up in Year 2 after logging a No. 39 fantasy rank as a rookie wideout playing with a rookie quarterback in 2022. |
| 36 | MIN | Jordan Addison | The majority of rookie wideouts do not meet fantasy expectations but the new that do are in the sort of situation that Addison has. He’s the first-round pick of the Vikings looking to replace Adam Thielen while Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson keep the secondary busy. Addison should make a tremendous complement to Jefferson and he caught up to 100 passes in a season in college. He should have a smaller learning curve than many while playing in an offense that already was Top-5 in all passing categories. |
Sleepers and overvalued players
| ADP | Tm | Wide Receiver | Depth Considerations |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | TEN | Treylon Burks | He gets dinged with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, but it may not be as bad as feared. He didn’t fare well as a rookie with only 33 catches for 444 yards and one score, but he stepped into a touch situation with A.J. Brown gone and leaving a vacuum. He’s rightfully outside of being a fantasy starter, but he was one of the top wideouts coming out of college last year. |
| 38 | KC | Kadarius Toney | Sure, he is on a team or two of mine. Probably yours too. And we both enter the season hoping that he stays healthy, blows up with Patrick Mahomes, and rewards our pick. And yet, we expect that eventually we will cut him in frustration after his <insert big number> injury just when he seemed to turn the corner. He started the summer climbing the draft boards, injured his knee, and now is back on his way down. |
| 39 | SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | The first wideout drafted this year joins a team that already had two great receivers. But the more we see, the more it seems that Smith-Njigba will be a nice surprise as a rookie even if it comes at the expense of someone else (cough, Tyler Lockett, cough). He’s the best college had to offer this year and Geno Smith has proven up to the challenge. |
| 40 | WAS | Jahan Dotson | He’s another first-round rookie of last year that should see a step up in production. The Commanders’ quarterback situation is the only limitation, much as it has been for Terry McLaurin for years. Just ask him. |
| 41 | DEN | Courtland Sutton | Taken as a backup fantasy wideout, Sutton is a solid pick with upside. New HC Sean Payton bring optimism that maybe 2022 wasn’t who the Broncos really are. This draft spot says Sutton remains the same as the last two years, and this should be his floor, not his ceiling. Russell Wilson has to turn it around and use Sutton (and Jerry Jeudy) to do that. |
| 42 | DAL | Brandin Cooks | Cooks is like the Pete Davidson of the NFL. He scores with everyone and yet no relationship sticks. He lands in Dallas as his fifth employer and he logged at least one 1,000-yard season with each of the first four. But he’s never been in one place more than three years. Cooks is 29 years old and still has gas in the tank and the Cowboys have a need for someone, anyone, to line up across from CeeDee Lamb and contribute. Cooks won’t be the WR1 for the Cowboys, but he can, yet again, turn in notable stats. He’s already had six Top-20 seasons and at least one with every previous team. |
| 43 | NO | Michael Thomas | Thomas is either on the verge of being a star again, or more likely, remains the lesson we will never learn. He’s never been the same since his monster 2019 season. It is easy enough to convince that this price point makes him a worthwhile gamble, but ankle, foot, and toe injuries have sidetracked his career. For those who played fantasy football in 2019, it is easy to get talked into believing again. But at some point, let someone else burn a pick on the hopes for a magic year. |
| 44 | BUF | Gabriel Davis | This is the fourth year for Gabe Davis fans who expect him to make a significant step up. But he’s peaked last year at just No. 35 when he turned in 52-801-4. He could repeat that level, so this is a solid spot for a back-up type that should be great for bye weeks and perhaps more if injuries happen to your roster. He’s already found his level and convincing him of being more is getting much harder to do. |
| 45 | BAL | Odell Beckham Jr. | His last year of making a difference was 2019 in Cleveland and he held out of football completely last season. He’s already talked about retiring in 2024 if this doesn’t go well (Part IV). Maybe joining a Bottom-5 passing offense isn’t the way to success. |
| 46 | NE | JuJu Smith-Schuster | I try really hard not to build the same team in every draft, but then Smith-Schuster shows up as the No. 46 wideout and I pull the trigger. He was the No. 1 wideout for the Chiefs last year (78-933-3) and the No. 16 fantasy wideout in 2020 when he was healthy in Pittsburgh. He’s the favorite to be the No. 1 wideout in New England and that has to be worth more than the No. 46 wideout drafted. Jakobi Meyers was the No. 29 fantasy wideout with the Pats last year and the offense has to be better. |
| 47 | CLE | Elijah Moore | If you can convince yourself that Deshaun Watson will return to form this year, then this pick is a steal. Regardless, Watson is an upgrade over the Jets quarterbacks for the last two years. He may not have huge upside, but he could work into a matchup-dependent rotation for a fantasy team. |
| 48 | LAC | Quentin Johnston | The second wideout drafted this year has less of a clean path to production with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams ahead on the depth chart. But 31-year-old Allen missed seven games last year and could be released next year. 28-year-old Williams is also in his final guaranteed season and could be released next year. Williams also misses a few games each year as well. Johnston is a lock to end better than he starts, but the uncertainty keeps him as just fantasy roster depth. Johnston was just one pick back of being the first wideout drafted last April. |
| 49 | DET | Jameson Williams | The 1.12 pick of last year stayed out to heal his ACL tear and then was caught gambling on the premises and is suspended for six games. The ex-Alabama star has the potential to become a starter and was a national talent until the ACL injury. That worth a draft pick as a WR5 to see what happens. But – he cannot play until Week 7. |
| 50 | CAR | Adam Thielen | Love this pick but reality is that while Thielen may be the WR1 in Carolina, what that means is not certain. A new offense is being installed with a rookie quarterback and not one receiver seems likely to be more than average. But Thielen can become a best friend for Bryce Young looking to get rid of the ball. He’s worth owning and should provide low-level bye-week coverage at the least. But his ceiling won’t be very high. |
| 51 | NYJ | Allen Lazard | He rejoins Aaron Rodgers as a Jet and that will help transition the offense into OC Nathaniel Hackett’s scheme. Minimal upside but Lazard should manage to produce a handful of points per week. |
| 52 | BAL | Zay Flowers | No arguing his talent. Flowers was the third wideout drafted this year and should develop into a starter as early as this year. Rashod Bateman may be in the way, but Flowers is making a strong case to be the No. 2 wideout across from Odell Beckham who may last the entire season. But the Ravens passing offense has been Bottom-5 and Mark Andrews takes the biggest share before the wideouts get targets anyway. There’s upside from his talent, but his situation will be challenging for a rookie. |
| 53 | ARI | Rondale Moore | The Cardinals passing offense is nothing to buy into as they have a shaky quarterback situation and face the worst passing schedule strength while operating behind one of the worst O-lines. Not enough upside to merit any consideration. |
| 54 | CLE | Donovan Peoples-Jones | A full season of Deshaun Watson will help, but adding Elijah Moore shortcuts Peoples-Jones from becoming a weekly fantasy consideration. |
| 55 | BAL | Rashod Bateman | Bateman’s stock has fallen with the addition of Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers. There’s just not enough passes, let alone well-thrown ones, to prop Bateman up to being a fantasy starter. |
| 56 | HOU | Nico Collins | This spot is significantly higher than he’s produced for his two seasons, but the Texans offense is undergoing change and will rely on the rookie quarter C.J. Stroud. There’s no proven wideouts of any note, and the depth chart is open. Collins is more likely to end up on the waiver wire than a starting lineup, but he’s worth a deep stash to see what happens. |
| 57 | KC | Skyy Moore | Moore was a hot sleeper last year since he joined the Chiefs offensive machine but he only managed 22 catches for 250 yards. But yet again, the Chiefs lose their No. 1 wideout and the depth chart is wide open again. There are plenty of other candidates vying for work, but spending a WR5 pick on a speculative player is warranted. |
| 58 | GB | Romeo Doubs | Depth player only and may end up on the waiver wire depending on what Jordan Love does as a starter. He’s just a roster filler for now. |
| 59 | LV | Jakobi Meyers | Meyers was about the No. 30 fantasy wideout for the last two years in New England. He joins the Raiders and should slide into the WR2 role across from Davante Adams. He’s been an 800-yard sort of wideout and that should continue in Las Vegas. There’s still some upside for him to take another step up in a new offense and he rejoins Josh McDaniels and already knows the offense. |
| 60 | MIN | K.J. Osborn | The drafting of Jordan Addison means Osborn’s role won’t get a major bump filling the void left behind by Adam Thielen. He’s more likely to see fewer targets than more. |
Best of the Rest
Van Jefferson (LAR) – Ranked No. 36 after 2021 when he produced 50-802-6 in the Rams march to the Super Bowl and was expected to take another step forward last year but injured his knee while the Rams progressively fell apart. Matt Stafford is back and will need to throw. Cooper Kupp is the pass sponge, but Jefferson looks like the No. 2 receiver.
Tyler Boyd (CIN) – He ends up between No. 30 and No. 40 in recent seasons. He has almost no real upside but offers weekly points if your roster gets thin.
Zay Jones (JAC) – Solid showing with 82-823-5 during his first season in Jacksonville. Calvin Ridley assumes the top spot and that will impact Jones. But he merits a roster spot and can become a starter again if either Ridley or Christian Kirk are injured.
