The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will unfold and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot. No color means the pick is a reasonable value at that spot.
See also:
Sleepers and Value Plays: Quarterbacks
Sleepers and Value Plays: Running Backs
Sleepers and Value Plays: Tight Ends
Average Draft order – Value picks
| ADP | Tm | Wide Receiver | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAR | Cooper Kupp | No.1 WR from last year earns this spot. And he was No. 1 by a mile. |
| 2 | MIN | Justin Jefferson | Two years in and never worse than No. 7. He gets drafted No. 1 on occasion and not hard to argue. |
| 3 | CIN | Ja’Marr Chase | Rookie Phenom. Top-5 when he really only played one big year in college. And that wasn’t even the previous year. |
| 4 | LVR | Davante Adams | Pass sponge leaves frigid Green Bay for sunny Las Vegas. Doesn’t sound all that crazy really. |
| 5 | BUF | Stefon Diggs | The top receiver with the top passer. Lock for a Top-10 if not Top-5. |
| 6 | DAL | CeeDee Lamb | Amari Cooper gone, Michael Gallup still healing and James Washington out for a month or three. Stage set for a major increase. |
| 7 | SF | Deebo Samuel | He runs, he catches, he wins fantasy games. No surprise this year. |
| 8 | MIA | Tyreek Hill | Trades Patrick Mahomes for Tua Tagovailoa and claims it’s no step down. At this spot, willing to discover the truth. Was No. 6 and No. 2 most recently. |
| 9 | TB | Mike Evans | Perfect spot for a WR that is right around No. 10 every year. |
| 10 | LAC | Keenan Allen | Like Mike Evans, consistently right around No. 10 as well. |
| 11 | PHI | A.J. Brown | Never better than No. 14 and leaves the simpler passing offense of the Titans for the complex scheme in Philly that already has DeVonta Smith to share targets. He may be fine at this spot, but a bit more risk and there are other safer options. |
| 12 | CIN | Tee Higgins | This feels high for a wideout that’s been the No. 24 and No. 28 wideouts these last two seasons. But he’s a lock for 1,000 yards and six scores. Ja’Marr Chase attracts the secondary so Higgins could see another increase in production. |
| 13 | IND | Michael Pittman Jr. | Posted 88-1082-6 last year playing with Carson Wentz and the No. 29 passing schedule. Gets Matt Ryan and the No. 6 schedule. That’s worth a bump. |
| 14 | SEA | D.K. Metcalf | Metcalf plenty talented, but was No. 15 last year with Russell Wilson. Now he steps down. Just a riskier situation and Seattle wants to run more to cover for a decline in passing. |
| 15 | PIT | Diontae Johnson | Johnson exceeded expectations with 107-1161-8 while Ben Roethlisberger practiced free throws instead of passing downfield. A change in QB certain to impact and the No. 31 pass schedule is no help. This spot assumes he still gets a high volume of passes that is no longer certain. |
| 16 | WAS | Terry McLaurin | McLaurin has the talent for this production and at least Carson Wentz helped Michael Pittman to a career year in 2021. Less upside here, but a safe pick. |
| 17 | MIA | Jaylen Waddle | Rookie was the No. 12 receiver but steps back with the addition of Tyreek Hill. Plenty of passes for the two to share so a minor decline isn’t a huge deal. Some upside from Hill clearing out the safeties. |
| 18 | CAR | D.J. Moore | He’s been rock solid at this level and topped 1,150 yards in each of the last three years. If Panthers ever get a top-tier QB, Moore would be Top-10 material. Baker Mayfield is no worse than what Moore has played with in Carolina. |
| 19 | ARI | DeAndre Hopkins | Hopkins was less productive last year even aside from the hamstring injury and eventual torn MCL. Now he is suspended for the first six games (AKA half of the fantasy regular season). He may return to being lights out in Week 7, but that’s a long time to wait. |
| 20 | TB | Chris Godwin | Returns from torn ACL last December. Top-12 when healthy, but that’s a quick turnaround to be back to form by Week 1. Bucs added Julio Jones and Russell Gage, so less need to rush him back. |
| 21 | NO | Michael Thomas | I do remember 2019 but it is fading. Was already less effective after his 149 catches and then injured his ankle and hasn’t played for almost two years. Plus Drew Brees is long gone. He’s only 28 and still has years, but an immediate return to form would be a surprise. |
| 22 | LAC | Mike Williams | Was the No. 14 last year and has both a great QB and an easier schedule. Had four 100-yard games and nine TDs last year. As a deep WR2? Very nice. |
| 23 | HOU | Brandin Cooks | Something Cooks does leads to his team cutting ties – three times. But it isn’t production with six 1,000-yard seasons. And he’s only 28 and in his prime. Played on lowly Texans with a rookie QB last year and had a career-high 90 catches. |
| 24 | MIN | Adam Thielen | At 31 years of age, Thielen is starting to age out, but he still scored ten times in 13 games last year and MIN looks to pass more in 2022. The catches get shorter and Justin Jefferson gets the most targets, but Thielen is a consistent contributor. |
| 25 | LVR | Hunter Renfrow | Third year was the charm when Renfro caught 103 passes during the Raiders most challenging year ever. He was a standard 55-catch, 650-yard slot guy for two years before they ran out of receivers. Adding Davante Adams changes everything, and Renfro is more likely to head back to his previous production than the one magic year. |
| 26 | CLE | Amari Cooper | Cooper steps into a very clear WR1 role with the Browns that ranked No. 31 in nearly all WR categories last year. Deshaun Watson is an obvious upgrade when he does play but this is an offense that is built to run. He was already the No. 27 fantasy WR last year and that was with Dak Prescott. |
| 27 | LAR | Allen Robinson | Yes. I welcome Robinson onto all my teams. Sure, he was terrible in Chicago last year, but was good for around 100 catches and 1,200 yards in the two previous seasons. Now he’s with the team that ranked No. 1 in WR last year. He’s impressed the coaches and no longer gets double teams. One of my favorite sleepers this year. |
| 28 | DEN | Jerry Jeudy | The former first-rounder hasn’t met expectations but finally gets a Top-Tier QB. There’s plenty of upside here and the first chance we get to see what Jeudy can really do after catching balls from a string of mediocre passers. |
| 29 | CHI | Darnell Mooney | Mooney managed 81 catches for 1,055 yards last year, somewhat miraculous considering no other CHI receiver had more than 410 yards. Second year of Justin Fields should be better without HC Matt Nagy around. Solid WR3 pick that could easily deliver WR2 production. |
| 30 | ARI | Marquise Brown | BAL committed to the pass last year and Brown ended with 91-1008-6 for career highs. He lands in Arizona where he’ll replace DeAndre Hopkins for six weeks, and then pair with him while catching passes from Kyler Murray. This could be a career move that can get him to that elite level expected as the first WR in the 2019 NFL draft. |
Sleepers and overvalued players
| ADP | Tm | Wide Receiver | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | DEN | Courtland Sutton | Like Jerry Jeudy, Sutton gets his first legitimate NFL QB with Russell Wilson. He topped out with 72 catches for 1,112 yards in 2019 and struggled last year after returning from the torn MCL of 2020. His best season was No. 19 so he’s worth a shot with his major upgrade in passer. |
| 32 | BUF | Gabriel Davis | Davis produced around 35 catches for 550 yards and six TDs in his two previous seasons, and the needle is pointing up for his third season since Emmanuel Sanders left. It’s a great offense with a great schedule, but it also has a lot of weapons. He was considered a sleeper my some this summer but he’s a safe grab at this level regardless. |
| 33 | PHI | DeVonta Smith | His rookie year was a big success with 64-916-5, but he topped 100 yards just twice and the addition of A.J. Brown is certain to cut into his workload. He’s still a very serviceable WR3 that should turn in at least a few big games along the way. But Brown will be the more consistent and productive of the pair. |
| 34 | NYJ | Elijah Moore | Moore was only the No. 50 fantasy WR as a rookie last year, and the Jets added Garrett Wilson, C.J. Uzomah, and Breece Hall who will impact the target share. He’ll improve by playing in all games but needs Zach Wilson to take a very big step forward if he’s going to be worthy of a weekly fantasy start. |
| 35 | DET | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Love this pick. The rookie on a talent-starved Lions team ended the year with six straight games of 8+ receptions. He caught 90 passes for 912 yards and five scores to rank No. 22. He’s joined by DJ Chark and Jameson Williams which will have an impact, but the Lions passing schedule got much easier and St. Brown is the only WR with any chemistry with Jared Goff. He could slow down later in the year as the others get more comfortable, but as a tail-end WR3 he is a great value. |
| 37 | TEN | Robert Woods | Tore his ACL last November but is expected to be healed for the season and has been talked up by his coaches. He leaves the pass-happy Rams for the run-heavy Titans though, and they drafted Treylon Burks to add to the mix that seeks to replace A.J. Brown. Long as the knee is okay, this is a reasonable spot. |
| 38 | BAL | Rashod Bateman | The rookie was limited to only 46-515-1 last year, but the departure of Marquise Brown promotes him into the WR1 spot for the Titans. Bateman is a sleeper to some, and he has a new opportunity, but BAL wants to return to their run-heavy ways and face a worst schedule. This WR4 level is good to see if he merits a fantasy start or just use as a solid bye week replacement. |
| 39 | KC | JuJu Smith-Schuster | Signed a one-year deal with KC hoping to recharge his career and cash in 2023. Nice balance of upside and risk leave him right after the fantasy starters at wideout. |
| 40 | SF | Brandon Aiyuk | He’s been worth around No. 35 in his two seasons, but has been inconsistent. Adding a new QB that may run more and pass less than Jimmy Garoppollo means fewer targets as the No. 3 or No. 4 read on most plays. |
| 41 | SEA | Tyler Lockett | Lockett has been a borderline fantasy WR1 for years, but losing Russell Wilson has him tumbling this far in ADP. It’s probably too far for such a reliable set of hands, but Seattle wants to run more and the QB situation is still not concrete. |
| 42 | PIT | Chase Claypool | This WR4 level is a good value for a receiver that was No. 24 as a rookie and then fell back to No. 38 last year when the TDs dried up. He produced around 60 catches for 850 yards as the deep threat on a team that had no QB that could throw downfield. Regardless of which QB starts, Claypool has new upside and should flirt with being a fantasy starter. |
| 43 | TB | Russell Gage Jr. | Gage was the rage this summer since Chris Godwin could be slow to return from his torn ACL and Tom Brady only has maybe eight to ten years left to play. But the Bucs added Julio Jones that should impact the target distribution. |
| 44 | DAL | Michael Gallup | The Cowboys fully intend on using Gallup after giving him a five-year, $63M contract. But his Week 17 ACL tear could see him remain out going into the season. Too many healthy options for this risk. |
| 45 | JAC | Christian Kirk | Left a career year in ARI with 77-982-5 and lands in Jacksonville on a four-year, $72M deal to be the new WR1. The Jags take a mulligan on their disastrous 2021 season, and the best college QB in the 2021 NFL draft has a new primary target. Great passing schedule, so Kirk has a big opportunity to be a fantasy starter at the price of a late WR4. |
| 46 | GB | Allen Lazard | Ton of targets to find new homes in GB after Davante Adams left and Lazard in line to be WR1. That’s gotta be worth more than the 46th WR taken. Maybe not a lot more, but Aaron Rodgers has never failed to produce at least one fantasy starter at WR. |
| 47 | NYG | Kadarius Toney | The Giants passing game has struggled but starts over with HC Brian Daboll importing some BUF offense. Toney mostly disappointed last year but had ne big game at Dallas. This deeply it worth swinging for the fence that something changed for the G-Men. |
| 48 | ATL | Drake London | QB situation may change midstream but Falcons are short on receiving talent outside of Kyle Pitts. This is a good spot for London to see if he develops into a fantasy option. |
| 49 | NO | Jarvis Landry | Michael Thomas is likely rusty, Chris Olave has to learn the NFL and Landry is the veteran presence that has been a great fit in camp. He may not offer any big games, but he should be a serviceable option as a flex play with consistent points. |
| 50 | TEN | Treylon Burks | Burks was drafted to replace A.J. Brown but struggled earlier this summer. Titans don’t throw much and Robert Woods should be the WR1. This offense doesn’t often produce two viable fantasy WR starters. |
| 51 | NO | Chris Olave | The 1.11 pick lands in a good spot but may remain behind Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry all season. |
| 52 | ATL | Calvin Ridley | Needed time off, bet on games, got suspended indefinitely for at least this season. And yet here he is in ADP. |
| 53 | NE | DeVante Parker | Not a bad depth pick for Parker who could use the change in scenery. Barring a big jump by Mac Jones, Parker won’t offer consistently relevant fantasy points. |
| 54 | GB | Christian Watson | Why not jump on the new guy for the Packers with their wide open depth chart? Davante Adams needed a few years to realize his potential, but Watson merits a pick this deep just to see if anything happens. |
| 55 | CIN | Tyler Boyd | Granted, Boyd is behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. But Boyd was still No. 31 last year as his worst in five years. He’s likely to do better than this, and could again flirt with being a consistent flex play. |
| 56 | KC | Skyy Moore | Tyreek Hill left and they drafted Moore which alone draws fantasy interest. But he missed most of the offseason with a hamstring injury, and then hurt his hip. Can’t fault swinging for the fence, but this feels like a waiver wire guy by Week 3. |
| 57 | TB | Julio Jones | Name alone gets him drafted. But 33 years old and last good year was 2019. I’d let someone else take him. |
| 58 | KC | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | Almost to WR6 area and MVS lands on a team that gave him a three-year, $30M contract while JuJu Smith-Schuster only got one year. The speed guy from GB was never better than 690 yards and four scores, but Davante Adams dominated. MVS also has a career 17.7 yards per catch. Buy him as depth, but know he is in a great situation and the Chiefs locked him up for three years. |
| 59 | ARI | A.J. Green | He’s 34 years old and won’t be better than the No. 3 receiver. He managed 54 catches for 848 yards last year, but he’s far more likely to decline than improve. |
| 60 | KC | Mecole Hardman | Gets a little better each year and reached 59 catches for 693 yards, but Chiefs brought on JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and drafted Skyy Moore. He’s another guy that finds the waiver wire by Week 3. |
Best of the Rest
Robby Anderson (CAR) – After posting 1,096 yards on 95 catches in first year at Carolina, fell out of sight last year. Baker Mayfield won’t be any worse and likely better. Anderson deserves at least one more chance.
Nico Collins (HOU) – Big guy at 6-4 that looks to take the next step with the Texans. Has impressed in camp and Texans need the help.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) – More of a stash and wait for Deshaun Watson. As the WR2 for the Browns, should offer a flex option.
DJ Chark (DET) – One-year deal to rekindle his career and lands with the Lions. No chance of becoming the WR1 but worth rostering to see if the change in scenery helps.
Jalen Tolbert (DAL) – Cowboys spent their third-round pick on the South Alabama product for depth but Michael Gallup still on the mend and James Washington out for two or three months. Tolbert has impressed and DAL has no other options.
