Comment: Estimates of illicit tobacco use in Aotearoa New Zealand differ sharply. Although tobacco industry-funded studies suggest the illicit tobacco market is large and growing rapidly, independent research has consistently found much lower levels.
However, evidence that border seizures have increased, alongside rapid growth in Australia’s illicit tobacco market, suggests Aotearoa must act now to prevent illicit tobacco from becoming established and undermining efforts to reduce smoking.
In May, the Government announced a joint initiative between Customs, police, Health New Zealand, and the Ministry of Health to address the importation, storage and distribution, and sale of illegal cigarettes.
How can we make sure these efforts are targeted and effective? We recommend six key steps.
First, Aotearoa should accede to the World Health Organisation’s Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products. This requires parties to control the tobacco supply chain by licensing all importers, distributors and retailers, thus creating greater accountability throughout the supply chain.
Regulators would allocate licences after applicants underwent a “fit and proper person” assessment and licence holders would have to maintain detailed sales records, to enable monitoring. Licensing would enable regulators to manage the location and number of tobacco retailers, helping prevent clusters of outlets near schools or in lower-income communities.
The protocol also requires governments to establish a state-controlled track-and-trace system that records how tobacco products move through the supply chain, thus facilitating proactive investigations. Although potentially vulnerable to tobacco industry interference and limited to commercially produced and legally imported tobacco, track and trace systems would still provide Aotearoa with intelligence on high-risk shipments while supporting cross-border investigations and cooperation.
Concerns that organised crime groups manage illicit tobacco trade strengthens the need for international information-sharing partnerships, such as formal cooperation protocols with customs and border security agencies in countries known to be a source or transit point for illicit tobacco. Diplomatic pressure could encourage governments to close national manufacturing plants that supply illicit tobacco.
Second, stronger regulation must occur alongside expanded border enforcement. Illicit tobacco threatens communities’ wellbeing and puts Aotearoa’s biosecurity at risk. Customs and the Ministry for Primary Industries need additional funding to support greatly expanded screening alongside investment in advanced detection technologies capable of identifying and intercepting illicit imports before they reach the domestic market.
Third, enforcement must include the domestic market. Reports of illicit tobacco sales through existing retailers, at pop-up stores, via in-person and online markets, and from private houses, suggest suppliers are already developing diverse distribution channels; these require a swift and decisive response to shut them down.
To respond effectively, Aotearoa needs a comprehensive and integrated system. Although Smokefree Enforcement Officers can inspect retail premises, issue infringement notices and fines, and recommend prosecution, they have no powers of arrest and limited powers to seize illicit products. Police can investigate criminal activity, such as organised smuggling of illicit tobacco, execute search warrants and make arrests. An integrated system combining compliance monitoring and criminal investigations could enable more rapid identification of stores selling illicit tobacco and faster action to close these.
Fourth, penalties for non-compliance must increase. The reported low cost of producing illicit cigarettes, means laws need to be fit-for-purpose. Penalties for supplying illicit tobacco must be severe and Smokefree Enforcement Officers should have powers to impose store closure orders and large on-the-spot fines. Other penalties should include imprisonment and deportation, where appropriate.
Fifth, as well as integrating processes to detect and deter illicit tobacco trade, Aotearoa needs comprehensive surveillance of illicit tobacco activity, including ongoing analyses of border interceptions and domestic seizures, monitoring of social media marketplaces and research into purchase patterns. Regular monitoring of reported illicit tobacco use, including prices paid, products used and their sources, would help target resources and provide baseline data to evaluate measures taken.
Finally, and crucially, Aotearoa needs more effective measures to decrease smoking prevalence, including maintaining the high excise taxes that have reduced smoking prevalence and remain a key reason why people who smoke try to quit. Proposals to freeze or lower excise taxes will increase smoking rates; that may enhance tobacco companies’ profits, but it will lead to more completely avoidable deaths.
International evidence shows the key measures to control illicit trade are supply chain oversight, robust enforcement and comprehensive border control, not reduced excise taxes. Rapidly reducing the potential market for illicit tobacco by helping people to quit smoking will reduce the rewards for suppliers that exploit people addicted to nicotine.
Repeal of the smokefree measures has seen smoking prevalence plateau and has created opportunities for illicit tobacco supply to become established. Aotearoa needs an ambitious strategy that recreates momentum towards a smokefree future. Such a strategy should maintain existing measures, introduce licensing and tracking at each stage of the supply chain, and create a more co-ordinated enforcement and monitoring system. Reducing smoking prevalence and preventing illicit tobacco trade are complementary goals; however, both will require sustained political commitment.
All researchers have received independent research funding to undertake work that will reduce smoking prevalence. No author has ever received funding from the tobacco industry.
