Six points with David Dorey

The NFL season is taking form and were left with only two undefeated teams and two one winless team. Player rankings are still dominated by players who had one monster game to skew their fantasy points. Right now, the only Top-10 running backs from last year that are still Top-10 are Tony Pollard and Christian McCaffrey. But the top wideouts from last year are almost all top in the rankings again. Puka Nacua is a slight surprise, and maybe we underestimated the Texans and Nico Collins. But so far – those early wideout picks have almost all been golden, and running backs are mostly frustrating.

Unless we are talking about rookies.

Let’s take a look at some positions and situations as we head into Week 5.

1. Rookie running back report – Here’s where the first five rounds of rookie running backs have ended up through the first four weeks.
   

   Pick	Tm	Running Backs	Yards	Catch	TDs	FF Pts	RANK
   1.08	ATL	Bijan Robinson	452	19	1	70.2	6
   1.12	DET	Jahmyr Gibbs	249	14	0	38.9	27
   2.21	SEA	Zach Charbonnet	126	4	0	16.6	57
   3.08	NO	Kendre Miller	42	2	0	6.2	79
   3.18	TEN	Tyjae Spears	150	10	0	25	46
   3.21	MIA	Devon Achane	362	8	6	80.2	4
   3.25	JAC	Tank Bigsby	33	2	0	15.3	60
   4.13	CHI	Roschon Johnson	180	11	1	35	30
   5.08	NYJ	Israel Abanikanda	0	0	0	0	na
   5.28	CIN	Chase Brown	-1	1	0	0.9	114
   5.37	NYG	Eric Gray	0	0	0	0	na
   5.41	IND	Evan Hull	7	1	0	1.7	110

   Jahmyr Gibbs still rates as a fantasy starter but hasn’t been a difference-maker. Devon Achane’s stats were vastly impacted by his four-TD performance, but he’s a fantasy starter until he isn’t. The most likely assumption is that Achane drops and Gibbs rises as the season progresses. But we were all correct – Bijan Robinson is the one to draft and in the first round.

2. Rookie wide receiver report –  Rookie receivers very rarely meet fantasy expectations. That has held true with one gigantic outlier. Tank Dell and Michael Wilson can thank one big performance to scoot them into the end of the WR3 range. Zay Flowers is also barely there. All the others have not rated a fantasy start except for NFL-record setter Puka Nacua. He was the 20th wideout drafted. All other teams missed him five times before he was taken.
   

   Pick	Tm	Wide Receivers	Yards	Catch	TDs	FF Pts	RANK
   1.20	SEA	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	62	12	0	18.2	89
   1.21	LAC	Quentin Johnston	44	6	0	10.4	113
   1.22	BAL	Zay Flowers	244	24	0	49.5	35
   1.23	MIN	Jordan Addison	185	13	2	43.5	44
   2.08	CAR	Jonathan Mingo	64	8	0	14.4	100
   2.19	GB	Jayden Reed	203	12	2	44.1	42
   2.24	KC	Rashee Rice	140	13	1	32.7	59
   2.32	DEN	Marvin Mims	242	9	1	40.5	45
   3.06	HOU	Nathaniel Dell	267	16	2	56	25
   3.10	NYG	Jalin Hyatt	99	4	0	13.9	102
   3.11	CLE	Cedric Tillman	5	1	0	1.5	154
   3.16	IND	Josh Downs	158	17	0	32.8	57
   3.31	ARI	Michael Wilson	239	21	2	59.8	34
   3.37	LVR	Tre Tucker	34	1	0	1	137
   4.23	LAC	Derius Davis	85	4	0	6.4	108
   4.29	CIN	Charlie Jones	6	1	0	1.6	150
   4.31	CHI	Tyler Scott	20	3	1	2.3	123
   5.15	BUF	Justin Shorter	0	0	0	0	na
   5.24	GB	Dontayvion Wicks	0	0	0	0	na
   5.42	LAR	Puka Nacua	501	39	1	95.5	5

   Some of the above will likely creep into fantasy starter range later in the season. But drafting a rookie wideout almost never pays off. Nacua wasn’t drafted in most leagues – why would he? You have to love the surprises.

3. Jameson Williams (DET) – He served his time and the NFL cut his suspension short, so tie those yellow ribbons all over Ford Field. The Lions play the Carolina “for a good time, call” Panthers, so most everything should work anyway. To start, he’ll timeshare with Marvin Jones which is to say he’ll handle all the actual receptions between the two. He’s one to watch but had just one catch last year as he returned from a torn ACL. He’s good enough that the Lions drafted him with their 1.12 pick last year, knowing that he’d have a down rookie year from his knee. They did not see the suspension coming, but it is over and the ex-Alabama star finally hits the field healthy. He turned in a 79-1572-15 stat line as a Crimson Tide junior who ran a 4.38 and even posted 7-184-2 on the Georgia defense in 2021. Amon-Ra St. Brown is safely the No. 1 wideout but there’s room for Williams to start to climb the depth chart.
4. Chiefs receivers – Will there be a primary wideout this year? Tyreek Hill left last year, and JuJu Smith-Schuster stepped up with 78-933-3 as the No. 27 fantasy wideout. This year? The top wideout is the rookie Rashee Rice (No. 59) and Skyy Moore (No. 69).    Patrick Mahomes uses around a dozen receivers every week and none have more than five catches in a game. Usually, they catch two or three. Kadarius Toney is officially empty on any upside. Playing at the Vikings who rank No. 32 versus wideouts should give a look at how the passing should ideally be distributed. Rice is the one to watch, but if he cannot clearly step forward ahead of the rest in this venue, than the Chiefs will not offer a safe wideout fantasy starter this season.
5. Kyle Pitts / Drake London (ATL) – Both players are highly talented. Pitts (2020 – 1.04) was the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history. London (2021 – 1.08). Pitts set records as a rookie, as expected. Last year, Marcus Mariota prevented the passing game from succeeding. Now that Desmond Ridder is starting his career, the passing game has nosedived and both Pitts and London are landing on waiver wires in frustration and anger.  The duo are in the Bottom-3 among all NFL receivers in catchable target rate. It is not their fault. The Falcons rank No. 32 in fantasy wideouts. Pitts isn’t even the most productive tight end on his team. But if the passing continues to be so bad, the Falcons will be forced to switch to Taylor Heinicke. This week against the Texans should see some signs of improvement. If not, the calls to remove Ridder will grow. Don’t throw away either receiver if you have any roster room. Talent always finds a way. Eventually.
6. Israel Abanikanda (NYJ) – The Jets intend to kick off the training wheels for Breece Hall and eliminate his limitations.  That’s great for Hall and his fantasy owners because he looks very much to be in top shape, averaging 6.6 yards per carry.  Behind him has been Dalvin Cook, but the veteran back has not been of any help. After four games, he is averaging just 2.5 yards per carry. There is speculation that Cook could get traded or released, as he is not adding anything to the backfield despite signing a 1-year, $7M contract. The fifth-round pick Abanikanda impressed earlier this summer, but then had a thigh injury. He’s not seen any work this season, but the Jets have to be concerned about Cook if they were forced to rely on him.  It is a situation worth tracking.

About last night

Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Chicago 40, Washington 20

Free at last…

The Bears broke that fourteen-game losing streak, this time by building a huge lead and then NOT letting the opponent post a huge comeback. Bet they thought about last week, just without anyone speaking a word. The Commanders are now officially “it.” And in their own stadium, no less.

Once again, Justin Fields was a fantasy gem. He ran for 57 yards on a team-high 11 rushes, and passed for 282 yards and four touchdowns. DJ Moore had a career-best game with eight receptions for 230 yards and three touchdowns. Cole Kmet offered five catches for 42 yards and a score, but all other receivers combined for only two catches for two yards. This illustrates why covering DJ Moore would be a game-changer. Khalil Herbert rushed for 76 yards on ten carries but left with an ankle injury. Roschon Johnson gained 19 yards on three rushes and left with a concussion. Have to think the only Bears cheering then were close family members of D’Onta Foreman. Who may have been at home with them.

The Bears defense finally showed up and never left. The No. 31 defense against running backs only allowed Brian Robinson to gain 10 yards on six runs. That will help the average. Sam Howell passed 51 times to complete 37 passes for 388 yards and two scores between Logan Thomas (9-77, TD) and Curtis Samuel (6-65, TD). Antonio Gibson never rushed the ball but caught four passes for 64 yards.  Eight different receivers caught at least two passes but they were not nearly enough for a Bears team that found destiny after almost a calendar year.