Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I won’t be writing this newsletter next week while I travel to report some exciting stories, but SI:AM will continue in the hands of some very capable replacements.
In today’s SI:AM:
🧀 Packers get embarrassed
🏀 NBA season predictions
⚾ Hall of Fame push for baseball pioneer
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It’s almost October
The MLB playoff picture got a lot clearer yesterday as the Padres, Cubs, White Sox and Guardians all clinched postseason spots. But there are still a few races left to be decided. Let’s break it all down.
High stakes in AL West
The most compelling race is, oddly, the AL West. Five of the six spots in the AL playoff field have been claimed, although there are still important seeding questions to be answered. The last spot will go to either the Astros or Rangers, and whichever team finishes second in the division will get to go play golf.
Houston and Texas are currently tied at 79–80, but the Astros hold the tiebreaker after winning the season series 9–4. Both teams are ending the regular season on the road against teams that have nothing to play for. The Astros are taking on the A’s, while the Rangers are in Minnesota.
I don’t really care which team ends up taking the division crown, but I am morbidly curious to see what the winner’s record will be. Unless either team pulls off a sweep this weekend, the AL West “champion” will have the worst record of any full-season division winner in MLB history. That mark is currently held by the 2005 Padres, who went 82–80. It’s quite possible that the winner will be the first team ever to make the playoffs with a losing record in a full season. Yikes.
One more NL spot up for grabs
Just like in the AL, five of the six NL spots have been clinched. The last team in will be either the Phillies or Diamondbacks.
The Phillies are currently two games ahead of Arizona for the final wild-card spot, but the D-Backs hold the tiebreaker because they have the better division record.
The Phillies are at home this weekend against the Rays, who don’t have much to play for. The D-Backs are in San Diego for a series against the Padres that seemed like it would be a lot more consequential a few weeks ago. The Padres don’t have as much at stake as Arizona, but they’re still fighting for seeding.
The importance of winning the AL Central
The White Sox and Guardians know that they will be playing postseason baseball, but they don’t know when they’ll be playing.
Both teams are guaranteed at least a wild-card spot, but that’s merely a consolation prize. What they really want is the division title and the first-round bye that will accompany it. Neither team has been especially impressive this season—Cleveland is currently in first at 83–76, while Chicago is one game back—but the rest of the AL has been so unusually weak this season that the Central winner will earn the No. 2 seed. (The White Sox hold the tiebreaker.)
To put it in perspective, Cleveland currently has the 11th-best record in the majors. If it played in the NL, it would be four games behind the final wild-card spot. And yet, because of how the bracket shapes out, one of the Guardians, White Sox, Astros and Rangers is virtually guaranteed a spot in the ALCS.
Everything else
In all likelihood, the Red Sox will face the Yankees in the first round, and the AL West winner will play the AL Central loser. However, there is a fringe scenario where the Red Sox, White Sox and Guardians all finish with 85 wins, in which case Chicago holds the tiebreaker over Cleveland in the division and Cleveland holds the tiebreaker over Boston in the wild-card. Boston would get bumped to the No. 6 seed and face the AL West winner, and the Guardians would play the Yankees in the Bronx.
The NL wild-card seeding is also up in the air. The Padres currently have 89 wins, while the Cubs have 88 and the Phillies have 87. As it stands now, the Padres would host the Cubs in the first round, and the Phillies would play the Braves in Atlanta. The Cubs, however, hold the tiebreaker over every team still alive in the NL race. Chicago’s quest for home-field advantage in the first round is complicated by a difficult schedule this weekend, though. Because of a historic nor’easter impacting southern New England, the Cubs’ series against the Red Sox in Boston has been shifted to include a doubleheader today, with the series finale on Saturday night. If the weather prevents the game on Saturday from being played, things could get a lot more complicated.
The best of Sports Illustrated
- Gilberto Manzano: Embarrassing Loss in Home Opener Exposes What’s Wrong with the Packers
- Albert Breer: Why There’s No Easy Solution to Prevent QB Injuries, Given League Data Trends
- Matt Verderame: The Chiefs’ Move From Missouri to Kansas Is More Complicated Than Many Fans Realize
- Gilberto Manzano: 2027 NFL Draft: The Best Edge Rusher in This Class and Revising Our QB1 Tiers
- SI NBA Staff: 2027 NBA Championship Predictions: Expert Preseason Picks for Every Playoff Round
- SI NBA Staff: How Scouts View Teams In Southwest Division: Grizzlies | Mavericks | Pelicans | Rockets | Spurs Karl Rasmussen: Ranking Pitching Rotations for the 14 Postseason Contenders
- Emma Baccellieri: Cheryl Reeve Has Already Cemented Her Legacy, But She’s Nowhere Near Finished
- Nick Selbe: ‘Dummy’ Hoy, Baseball’s Deaf Pioneer, Gets Long-Awaited Hall of Fame Push
The top five…
… things I saw last night:
5. Bijan Robinson’s slick move behind the line of scrimmage to evade a tackler and break a 31-yard run. Here’s a closer look at the juke.
4. An even better run by Robinson for 55 yards. He finished with 194 yards and two touchdowns.
3. George Lombard Jr.’s acrobatic slide to score on a wild pitch. Lombard also hit a go-ahead homer in the eighth inning as the Yankees beat the Rays.
2. Munetaka Murakami’s interview during the White Sox’ clubhouse celebration after clinching a spot in the playoffs.
1. Jordi Paulina’s flying goal for Curaçao to complete a comeback victory over Costa Rica. Curaçao trailed 3–0 at halftime but scored four goals in a span of 20 minutes to win.
📺 What we’re watching today …
College Football
Northwestern at Indiana, 8 p.m., Fox
In the Big Ten opener for both teams, the defending national champions will get their first test after beating North Texas, Howard and Western Kentucky.
Clemson at California, 10:30 p.m., ESPN
The Tigers discovered their run game in last week’s win against North Carolina, which could be bad news for Cal: The Bears have given up 169 rushing yards per game, including 277 yards in their lone loss against UCLA.
