Good morning, I’m Kyle Wood, pinch-hitting for Dan Gartland. Next week is Fantasy Draft Week at Sports Illustrated, so let’s kick things off with some info you need to win your league.
In today’s SI:AM—Fantasy Football Edition:
📊 Tier-based drafting, explained
🧐 Different draft strategies to follow
✈️ Hard Knocks Episode 2 Takeaways
Taking player rankings a step further
It doesn’t take a fantasy football deep dive to know who the top players are heading into 2023. Justin Jefferson is seen as the consensus first pick, Ja’Marr Chase is close behind, and then there are first-round mainstays like Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler. Michael Fabiano’s rankings tell us those are his four highest-ranked players, and that falls in line with current average draft position data.
Rankings are an essential tool to consult as fantasy drafts progress, but there’s no way for them to take into account how a draft might unfold. Taking the highest-ranked player with each of your first five picks could net you five running backs—that’s not an ideal start, especially in today’s wide-receiver-heavy fantasy ecosystem. That’s where tiers come in.
“Unlike my player rankings, tiers group players of similar value,” Fabiano writes. “So, if you miss out on a particular player, you can see others on the same tier as an alternative. And if that tier has been cleared, it might be a good idea to change direction and wait a round or two on players who fall into the next tier at that position.”
Patrick Mahomes may be head and shoulders above the rest of the NFL, but in fantasy football Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts exist on the same tier as the reigning MVP. In fact, you’ll notice those three signal-callers are going quite early in drafts, so if you want a Tier 1 QB, be prepared to pay up.
Factors other than performance come into play, too. Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing a season ago, but he’s in the midst of a holdout. That and the expectation of regression has him down in Tier 3. Jonathan Taylor, the 2021 rushing champ, is in a similar situation. He’s dealing with an ankle injury, requested a trade and is currently away from the team. Taylor can be found in Tier 2.
Wide receiver is deep this year, but don’t disregard the top-tier players. It’s nice to get guaranteed production every week from a Tyreek Hill or Cooper Kupp. However, there are players with top-12 upside who reside in Tier 3, Tier 4 and beyond, such as Chris Olave or Terry McLaurin.
And finally, the man who needs no introduction: Travis Kelce. The Chiefs’ star exists in his own tier, even at 33 years old. Kelce has cobbled together seven consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, and he had more than 100 more points than the next-best tight end in 2022. “He’s the lone player at the position who is worth a first-round selection in all redrafts,” Fabiano writes.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
The best of Sports Illustrated Fantasy
- Everything you need to know for draft season can be found in SI’s 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit. Rankings, sleepers, busts and breakouts.
- Average draft position is constantly changing. See which players are trending upward and who’s on the downturn heading into preseason Week 2.
- Different draft slots require different approaches. Find out the best way to proceed for pick slots 1-3, 4-6, 7-9 and 10-12 in the draft strategy series.
- Michael Fabiano watched the second episode of Hard Knocks and came away concerned about the Jets’ offensive line, bullish on Aaron Rodgers and ready for a running back committee with Dalvin Cook in town and Breece Hall back at practice.
- Speaking of Cook, Fabiano shared his thoughts on the Pro Bowl back signing with New York. Spoiler: It’s not great for his or Hall’s fantasy prospects.
- Ezekiel Elliott also found a new home in the AFC East when he signed with the Patriots. It’s not an earth-shattering move; Fabiano believes it could put a ceiling on Rhamondre Stevenson.
- Red Sox–Yankees is always a sight to see. Boston visits New York today for a three-game series, with seats to Saturday’s rivalry available for as low as $42, per SI Tickets.
The top five…
… preseason story lines:
5. Will the first-round quarterbacks live up to the hype? Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson were already named Week 1 starters, and it’s trending that way for C.J. Stroud.
4. Can Sean Payton fix the Broncos? Russell Wilson spoke highly of his new coach in a recent interview, but the preseason got off to a rocky start.
3. How will Todd Monken change the Ravens’ offense? Baltimore’s new offensive coordinator showed he’s open to input when he implemented a few routes in practice that Lamar Jackson saw online.
2. Is Aaron Rodgers enough to take the Jets to the playoffs (and beyond)? The expectation in New York is much more than simply a postseason berth, even though the franchise is in the midst of a 12-year drought.
1. Do the Chiefs defend their title? The last team to repeat as Super Bowl champs was the Patriots in 2003–04. Kansas City (+600) currently owns the best odds to win a ring in Las Vegas come February.
Fabiano’s Fun Fact
Looking for a fantasy sleeper? One second-year quarterback has broken out in each season since 2017. What’s more, a second-year field general has busted out in all but one year since ’15. That list includes Carson Wentz (’17), Patrick Mahomes (’18), Lamar Jackson (’19) and Kyler Murray (’20), to name a few.
