The United States comprehensively won its 20th-century space race with the Soviet Union in the summer of 1969 with Apollo 11. No human has set foot on our rocky satellite since US astronaut Gene Cernan became the 11th and final man to walk on the Moon in 1972. For over half a century, the Moon has remained undisturbed beyond the odd unmanned probe. But that could be about to change.
The US is now in fierce competition with China to get humans back on the Moon and establish a permanent base, ideally at the lunar south pole, where scientists hope essential ice water may be lurking in shadowy craters.
Since 2021, China has led on a roadmap to build the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) on the Moon by 2035, along with crewed lunar landings. Not one to be left behind, America is now full steam ahead on plans to dominate “lunar economic development” with a crewed landing by 2028 and a “permanent lunar outpost” by 2030. According to an executive order made by Donald Trump in December last year, at least.
Can the US achieve space superiority in the 21st century, though? The China National Space Administration may have half Nasa’s budget, but it has the full backing of the state, while the US agency increasingly has to rely on private innovation.
Nasa is preparing to launch Artemis II on April 1. But it’s only a flyby for the crew of four. The astronauts will perform research on the effect of radiation on their bodies and map geologic features on the dark side of the Moon. But in February this year, Nasa administrator Jared Isaacman announced the agency was revising original plans to attempt a crewed lunar landing with Artemis III. That mission will now only go to low orbit to practice docking with a lunar lander, while an additional Artemis IV mission will attempt a landing in 2028.
“We’re not yet giving up on the south pole,” said Isaacman, claiming more launches before a crewed Moon mission will “actually give ourselves a credible shot at aggregating a lunar base in the right spot”. Expectations need to be managed, however. “We’re not just going to plop down a magical bubble dome that everybody lives in and has plants and amazing things,” he added.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX is contracted to build and deliver the lander with its Starship rockets. The project has been beset by delays, however, including the “catastrophic failure” and explosion on the stand of Starship 36 in June last year. Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin also has a contract with Nasa to test its own lander for crewed Moon missions.
China, meanwhile, is very much on track with its mission to establish the IRLS at the lunar south pole. The nation plans to send humans to the Moon on Mengzhou, its reusable deep-space carrier, with a Long March 10 rocket. In February, the system passed an unmanned abort test, proving the crew could return safely if something went wrong. China is also waiting in the wings to dominate Earth’s low orbit. Once the International Space Station is retired in 2030, Tiangong will be the only crewed station orbiting the planet.
With the second space race in full swing, there have also been some curious propositions from private enterprises. Moonshot, an Israeli start-up backed by London venture capital firm Angular Ventures, has pitched a novel way to get building supplies to the Moon. They plan to build a hypersonic electromagnetic launcher to literally shoot payloads into space without costly rocket fuel. It would be a cargo-only situation, however, as the G-force would be fatal to any human.
So who will make the next giant leap for humankind? Let’s see…
