‘Shockingly’ resilient consumers kept Americans out of a recession last year, but now they’re just about spent

Shoppers select meats a Tops Super Market January 4, 2023 in Greenville, New York. (Credit: Robert Nickelsberg—Getty Images)

In May of last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the U.S. economy was “probably” already in a recession that would last 18 months. By September, amid consistent doomsday predictions from economists and billionaire investors, polls showed that more than three-fourths of Americans agreed. 

But despite the pessimism, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 2.9% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. That’s a slight slowdown from the 3.2% GDP growth seen in the third quarter, but still well above FactSet consensus expectations for 2.3%. And experts say it’s far from evidence of a recession—especially when coupled with the 3.5% unemployment rate.