There’s been a longtime dominance of fall festivals in the Oscar race, the majority of contenders premiering at Venice, Telluride and Toronto, leaving little room for other routes to victory. For a 13-year period, between 2007 and 2020, there were only two best picture winners that hadn’t travelled that way, and that pair had both premiered at a festival anyway, just slightly earlier at Cannes.
But since the pandemic shifted how so much of the industry operates, the past few years have seen unusual variation. Coda became the first best picture winner from Sundance, Everything Everywhere All at Once the first from SXSW, Oppenheimer the first non-festival premiere to win since The Departed in 2006 and the past six years has seen Cannes with more best picture wins than any other festival. It’s meant that at this particular time of year, as we sift through the good and bad of the fall festivals, it’s harder than ever to predict the race.
