Early evening summary
Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, has published the government’s universal credit and personal independence payment bill, claiming it represents “a new social contract” and that it will bring claimants “peace of mind”. (See 3.33pm.) She also claimed the three-month transitional payment for people who are losing Pip is “one of the most generous” transitional payments ever offered as part of a benefit change. (See 3.04pm.) Disability charities have restated their strong opposition to the plans, saying they will plunge hundreds of thousands of people into poverty. (See 4.48pm.)
9 out of 10 people currently getting Pip will still be getting it in 2029/30 despite cuts, DWP claims
The Department for Work and Pensions has published two impact assessments with its UC and Pip bill – here and here.
The one covering Pip says that, by 2029/30, nine out of 10 people who are currently getting Pip will still be getting it even though the bill is tightening the eligibilty requirement. It explains:
Before the change is implemented there will be around 3.6m people on Pip. The department has published an evidence pack which shows that currently around 46% of those receiving PIP daily living score fewer than 4 points on any daily living activity. This does not mean that over 1.6m would lose PIP, because it does not take into account:
-People’s health changes – some get better and no longer need Pip whereas 1 in 5 people see their award increase at an award review and some will leave benefit for other reasons.
-OBR assume a behavioural response so that around 50% of people will now qualify when the new rules come into effect.
-Not all current claimants will have been reassessed under the new criterion.
-Together these factors mean the OBR expects 370,000 people to have a lower award or lose Pip due to this policy by 2029/30 – so around 9 in 10 of the original caseload not affected.
Even with these reforms, the overall number of people of working age people on Pip/DLA is expected to rise by 750,000 by the end of this parliament and spending will rise from £23 billion in 24/25 to £31 billion in 29/30.