There is a lot to suggest that Sergio Perez's Formula 1 career will come to an end in a week's time.
On Sunday evening in Qatar, Red Bull bosses Christian Horner and Helmut Marko for the first time clearly gave the impression that the decision had at least then been as good as made if they alone could make it.
"We will fully support him until the chequered flag drops in Abu Dhabi. Whatever he decides after that is ultimately his decision," Horner says in an interview with Sky. "He's old enough and wise enough to draw his own conclusions. But there's still one race to go. Now let's get Abu Dhabi out of the way and then we'll see where we stand."
It sounds as if Horner almost wishes Perez would step down on his own. And it's noteworthy that he speaks in the past tense when he says, "Checo has been a great driver for us. He helped us win the constructors' championship in 2022 and 2023, and Max's drivers' title in 2021. And he's a great guy. But the situation he's in is not a nice one, and he knows the pressure in this business."
Horner elegantly dodges questions on the subject. The fact that Perez himself is suddenly supposed to be the one to make the decision is new. So what if the 34-year-old insists on his contract for 2025 and absolutely wants to continue?
"Now let's finish Abu Dhabi," Horner dodges, "and then we'll see where we stand."
This raises questions and sounds a bit as if Perez had already been advised by Red Bull to pull the plug himself. On Sunday before the race, Horner, Marko and Perez were photographed in a three-way conversation in which it may have already been clearly stated that Red Bull does not want to continue with him.
The questions that still need to be answered are obvious: How much compensation would Perez like to sign a termination agreement and not sit in the race cockpit in 2025? Red Bull would probably prefer him to accept the financial offer on the table in the next few days. Then he would be given a worthy farewell in Abu Dhabi with a big send-off.
All of this is speculation at the moment. The fact is, however, that Helmut Marko is no longer talking about Perez, but willingly answers question when it comes to who should sit in the second Red Bull next year. Franco Colapinto's name, he says, is "not high on the list". And when asked whether Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson are more likely, Marko replies: "I would say yes."
"There is a meeting Monday after Abu Dhabi and there, all the major people are there, all of the shareholders, and there a decision will be done," Marko explained to Viaplay.
"We always - or most of the time - brought our own drivers through the Red Bull programme and I think it's a philosophical decision: do we stick to that? And what I got from the shareholders it will be in this direction."
A statement that confirms nothing, but suggests the following: the decision on Perez's successor will be made between Tsunoda and Lawson. And because Horner in particular is said not to be convinced that Tsunoda is the right man for Red Bull Racing, it seems as if Lawson is the most likely candidate as things stand.
In connection with the rumours surrounding Perez, Marko also refers to the constructors' championship, which was finally lost in Qatar and whose win has meant considerable bonus payments for employees in recent years. "Of course, it's difficult if you don't have the support or the belief of the people who are working for you," says the 81-year-old Austrian.
Horner has also recognised the problem that the mechanics are unhappy about having been a virtual one-man team in 2024: "We've won nine grands prix this year to five of any other team. Now, all of those nine have come from Max, whereas every other team has split between two drivers.
"And I think to be third – we've still got half a chance of second but it's a massively long shot – we are out of the constructors' and that's very frustrating because that's obviously where the financial revenues are distributed from."
Red Bull would probably even prefer it to work with Perez, because breaking his contract prematurely could be expensive. Horner is said to have little joy with Tsunoda, and Lawson has only 10 grands prix under his belt. Another year with the RB would actually have been the more logical option.
But with 152:429 points in comparison to Verstappen, Perez is actually hard to keep, objectively speaking. And Qatar did nothing to dispel doubts about his performance. It all started with the F1 sprint on Saturday, when he was even overtaken by Williams driver Colapinto at the start from the pitlane, a scene that earned him a lot of scorn on social media.
Perez explained on Saturday evening that it was intentional to start last in order to test set-ups for the race in "clean air" - an explanation that is supported by the onboard footage, in which one can see how Perez apparently deliberately stays back and then even zigzags as if he were just getting ready for a test session.
In this context, the team bosses' failure to say a word about the fact that the slow start was planned is causing confusion. Horner, when explicitly asked by journalists about Perez's statements, even says quite the opposite: "We sent him to the end of the pit lane seven minutes ahead of Colapinto for a reason."
And then there was the unfortunate incident in the race itself, when Perez simply spun during a safety car period and then lost the clutch while trying to get the car back on the track. Horner only had this to say: "The situation that we’re in is as painful for him as it is for the team."
Perez radioed after the spin that he had "lost drive", which the team on Sunday evening still couldn't make sense of: "We're just investigating the exact failure, but it looks like he spun the car, and as he's dropped the clutch, the clutch has had too much temperature go through it," said Horner.
2024 was "a difficult year". Even Perez himself sounds as if he is taking stock. "It just doesn't get any better. I think, definitely, we learned a lot from that sprint event, which was great, great to see. And I think from that point on, there's a lot of things that we we will analyse, understand from our car."
What Perez still has, and this is something Red Bull credits him for, is the ability to put himself at the service of the team. Just as he did in the F1 sprint, when he volunteered to be a guinea pig to test set-ups, which proved to be an important element in Verstappen's victory on Sunday. Perhaps his last great act before the big farewell?
One thing is clear: if Perez decides to step down this week on his own initiative, Red Bull will send him into retirement in Abu Dhabi as a great hero, giving him a big farewell party in front of an audience of millions on TV. But if he leaves it to the shareholders' decision on Monday, it will probably be a quiet and ingratitude farewell to Formula 1.
