The Democrats’ fragile hold on the Senate majority is likely to come down to the fates of a dirt farmer from north-central Montana, a Rust Belt populist and a trio of senators from battleground states.
Less than eight weeks out from Election Day, Montana’s Jon Tester and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown lead the list of Roll Call’s most vulnerable senators, followed by Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey, Nevada’s Jacky Rosen and Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin. The ranking is based on extensive conversations with campaign insiders, party officials and independent election analysts.
Roll Call typically focuses on the 10 most endangered members in each chamber, but as has been true all cycle, the Senate list keeps thinning. Our first assessment in May 2023 of the landscape for this fall featured Democrat Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, independent Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Republican Mitt Romney of Utah; all have since taken themselves out of contention by announcing their retirements.
