Republicans are privately worried that Texas‘ Senate seat could flip to Democrats, and Donald Trump‘s continued silence on the matter is making things worse for them. With just days left until the Texas primary election, Washington Republicans are growing more alarmed that a bitter fight within their own party could cost them a key Senate seat.
According to Politico, Senator John Cornyn appears headed for an expensive and brutal 10-week runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. There is a real chance Paxton could win the nomination, even after national Republicans spent months highlighting his scandals across Texas airwaves in an effort to boost Cornyn.
Republicans have already spent nearly $100 million on TV advertising in the primary, which also includes Representative Wesley Hunt. Cornyn even launched new ads this week, backed by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, hitting Paxton hard over his ongoing divorce and corruption accusations, calling him a “wife-cheater and fraud.”
Paxton’s strong grassroots support is putting the Texas Senate seat in serious danger for Republicans
These attacks have not slowed Paxton down. He is well-aligned with the party base and has been boosted by positive polling and grassroots enthusiasm. An operative close to Cornyn, speaking anonymously, said all signs point to Paxton finishing first, adding they just hope the gap is not so wide that the story becomes “Paxton kicked the crap out of Cornyn.”
Paxton himself is predicting a massive victory, even suggesting he might win outright and skip a runoff entirely. This Texas battle is just one of several internal GOP conflicts tearing the party apart in recent months.
New polling says Jasmine Crockett has the best chances to beat Ken Paxton in Texas.
— Christopher Webb (@cwebbonline) February 21, 2026
The “she can’t win” crowd might want to start updating their talking points because the voters know what’s up. pic.twitter.com/RKUS3Fx2Rf
Party officials and Senate GOP leaders believe Cornyn has a far better chance than Paxton at defeating a Democratic challenger in the general election. The National Republican Senatorial Committee circulated a memo to donors earlier this month stating that “John Cornyn is the only Republican candidate who reliably wins a general election matchup,” and warning that “Paxton puts this seat at risk.”
The Cornyn/NRSC JFC is airing a new ad accusing Ken Paxton of "sleeping around with a married mother of seven" and calling him a "wife-cheater and fraud."
— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) February 25, 2026
Has there been another instance of a committee going so hard against a candidate who it may have to support in a few months? pic.twitter.com/UAyKQnWwvg
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said they would have to be prepared to spend heavily if Paxton is the nominee, calling Cornyn “by far, I think, the best candidate on the ballot.” Polling backs this up. Cornyn leads state Representative James Talarico by 3 points and Representative Jasmine Crockett by 7 points in general election matchups.
Paxton, however, would trail Talarico by 3 points and lead Crockett by just 1 point. A Democrat has not won a U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1988. President Trump has refused to make an endorsement in the primary. He said earlier this month that he is “friendly with all of them” and likes “all of them, all three.” Despite months of private lobbying from Thune and other Senate Republicans, Trump has stayed neutral.
Some Republican senators have also been vocal about pushing back against politically motivated legal moves tied to Trump’s influence. A White House aide confirmed Trump will not endorse anyone at an upcoming event in Corpus Christi.
Top GOP donors are worried the party is burning through money while Paxton still has the upper hand. One donor said “nobody truly knows what is going to happen based on the polling” and that a runoff with Paxton would be “very tough” due to low turnout favoring very conservative voters who lean toward Paxton.
That donor added there’s “frustration from everyone that Trump lets this happen by not endorsing.” Another donor said there is “not a lot of cautious optimism” that Cornyn will even make it to a runoff.
