ANALYSIS — Even with former Rep. Mary Peltola’s candidacy in Alaska, Senate Democrats still have a difficult path to the majority in November.
The fact that Democrats may need to rely on Alaska — a state where Republicans have a 9.4-point Inside Elections Baseline advantage, where Donald Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris by 13 points in 2024, and where Democrats have won just one Senate election in 50 years — to flip the chamber is evidence that it will be tough for the caucus to get to 51 seats this year.
Senate Republicans currently hold 53 seats, meaning Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to win control and bypass Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. And other races could pose more challenging for Democrats than Alaska.
